Impact of Weddell Sea deep convection on natural and anthropogenic carbon in a climate model

A climate model is used to investigate the influence of Weddell Sea open ocean deep convection on anthropogenic and natural carbon uptake for the period 1860-2100. In a three-member ensemble climate change simulation, convection ceases on average by year 1981, weakening the net oceanic cumulative uptake of atmospheric CO2 by year 2100 (-4.3 Pg C) relative to an ocean that has continued convection. This net weakening results from a decrease in anthropogenic carbon uptake (-10.1 Pg C), partly offset by an increase in natural carbon storage (+5.8 Pg C). Despite representing only 4% of its area, the Weddell Sea is responsible for 22% of the Southern Ocean decrease in total climate-driven carbon uptake and 52% of the decrease in the anthropogenic component of oceanic uptake. Although this is a model-specific result, it illustrates the potential of deep convection to produce an inter-model spread in future projections of ocean carbon uptake

Gateways as inter-modal nodes in different ages: The Venetian region, eighteenth to twentieth centuries

This paper focuses on the theoretical implications of a regional case studyfor the analysis of transportation networks and gateway functions. Thestarting point is the result of a research on the changing role of gateways,and on the relocation of the gateway function from one city to a series ofcities in the Venetian region from the eighteenth to the twentieth century.Against this evolution, I test the validity and usefulness of a definition of thegateway as a point of inter-modal exchange for its historical interpretation.Changing transport technologies involve different organisations of inter-modal exchanges, and imply more or less intense economic functions ofgateway cities. These changes intertwine with political events and deci-sions, and more general economic changes: they could at the same time beread as an effect of these transformations, and as a causal factor. From this perspective, a study of intermodality shows to be useful to shed new lighton specific changes in the structure of urban hierarchie

Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink

The Southern Ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but the nature and magnitude of its variability remains uncertain and debated. Estimates based on observations suggest substantial variability that is not reproduced by process-based ocean models, with increasingly divergent estimates over the past decade. We examine potential constraints on the nature and magnitude of climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink from observation-based air-sea O2 fluxes. On interannual time scales, the variability in the air-sea fluxes of CO2 and O2 estimated from observations is consistent across the two species and positively correlated with the variability simulated by ocean models. Our analysis suggests that variations in ocean ventilation related to the Southern Annular Mode are responsible for this interannual variability. On decadal time scales, the existence of significant variability in the air-sea CO2 flux estimated from observations also tends to be supported by observation-based estimates of O2 flux variability. However, the large decadal variability in air-sea CO2 flux is absent from ocean models. Our analysis suggests that issues in representing the balance between the thermal and non-thermal components of the CO2 sink and/or insufficient variability in mode water formation might contribute to the lack of decadal variability in the current generation of ocean models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'

Breeding systems in Tolpis (Asteraceae) in the Macaronesian islands: the Azores, Madeira and the Canaries

Plants on oceanic islands often originate from self-compatible (SC) colonizers capable of seed set by self fertilization. This fact is supported by empirical studies, and is rooted in the hypothesis that one (or few) individuals could find a sexual population, whereas two or more would be required if the colonizers were self-incompatible (SI). However, a SC colonizer would have lower heterozygosity than SI colonizers, which could limit radiation and diver sification of lineages following establishment. Limited evidence suggests that several species-rich island lineages in the family Asteraceae originated from SI colonizers with some ‘‘leakiness’’ (pseudo-self-compatibility, PSC) such that some self-seed could be produced. This study of Tolpis (Asteraceae) in Macaronesia provides first reports of the breeding system in species from the Azores and Madeira, and additional insights into variation in Canary Islands. Tolpis from the Azores and Madeira are predominately SI but with PSC. This study suggests that the breeding sys tems of the ancestors were either PSC, possibly from a single colonizer, or from SI colonizers by multiple dis seminules either from a single or multiple dispersals. Long distance colonists capable of PSC combine the advantages of reproductive assurance (via selfing) in the establishment of sexual populations from even a single colonizer with the higher heterozygosity resulting from its origin from an outcrossed source population. Evolution of Tolpis on the Canaries and Madeira has generated diversity in breeding systems, including the origin of SC. Macaronesian Tolpis is an excellent system for studying breeding system evolution in a small, diverse lineage.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

We present a new framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2), making use of the surface dataset based on the Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis for driving ocean–sea-ice models (JRA55-do). We motivate the use of OMIP-2 over the framework for the first phase of OMIP (OMIP-1), previously referred to as the Coordinated Ocean–ice Reference Experiments (COREs), via the evaluation of OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations from 11 state-of-the-science global ocean–sea-ice models. In the present evaluation, multi-model ensemble means and spreads are calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations and overall performance is assessed considering metrics commonly used by ocean modelers. Both OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 multi-model ensemble ranges capture observations in more than 80 % of the time and region for most metrics, with the multi-model ensemble spread greatly exceeding the difference between the means of the two datasets. Many features, including some climatologically relevant ocean circulation indices, are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet we could also identify key qualitative improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2. For example, the sea surface temperatures of the OMIP-2 simulations reproduce the observed global warming during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the warming slowdown in the 2000s and the more recent accelerated warming, which were absent in OMIP-1, noting that the last feature is part of the design of OMIP-2 because OMIP-1 forcing stopped in 2009. A negative bias in the sea-ice concentration in summer of both hemispheres in OMIP-1 is significantly reduced in OMIP-2. The overall reproducibility of both seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface height (dynamic sea level) is improved in OMIP-2. These improvements represent a new capability of the OMIP-2 framework for evaluating process-level responses using simulation results. Regarding the sensitivity of individual models to the change in forcing, the models show well-ordered responses for the metrics that are directly forced, while they show less organized responses for those that require complex model adjustments. Many of the remaining common model biases may be attributed either to errors in representing important processes in ocean–sea-ice models, some of which are expected to be reduced by using finer horizontal and/or vertical resolutions, or to shared biases and limitations in the atmospheric forcing. In particular, further efforts are warranted to resolve remaining issues in OMIP-2 such as the warm bias in the upper layer, the mismatch between the observed and simulated variability of heat content and thermosteric sea level before 1990s, and the erroneous representation of deep and bottom water formations and circulations. We suggest that such problems can be resolved through collaboration between those developing models (including parameterizations) and forcing datasets. Overall, the present assessment justifies our recommendation that future model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.This research has been supported by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (grant nos. JPMXD0717935457 and JPMXD0717935561), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) (grant no. 274762653), the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change) and European Union's Horizon 2020 Research & Innovation program (grant nos. 727862 and 800154), the Research Council of Norway (EVA (grant no. 229771) and INES (grant no. 270061)), the US National Science Foundation (NSF) (grant no. 1852977), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 41931183 and 41976026), NOAA's Science Collaboration Program and administered by UCAR's Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) (grant nos. NA16NWS4620043 and NA18NWS4620043B), and NOAA (grant no. NA18OAR4320123).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

We present a new framework for global ocean- sea-ice model simulations based on phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2), making use of the surface dataset based on the Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis for driving ocean-sea-ice models (JRA55-do).We motivate the use of OMIP-2 over the framework for the first phase of OMIP (OMIP-1), previously referred to as the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs), via the evaluation of OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations from 11 state-of-the-science global ocean-sea-ice models. In the present evaluation, multi-model ensemble means and spreads are calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations and overall performance is assessed considering metrics commonly used by ocean modelers. Both OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 multi-model ensemble ranges capture observations in more than 80% of the time and region for most metrics, with the multi-model ensemble spread greatly exceeding the difference between the means of the two datasets. Many features, including some climatologically relevant ocean circulation indices, are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP- 2 simulations, and yet we could also identify key qualitative improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP- 2. For example, the sea surface temperatures of the OMIP- 2 simulations reproduce the observed global warming during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the warming slowdown in the 2000s and the more recent accelerated warming, which were absent in OMIP-1, noting that the last feature is part of the design of OMIP-2 because OMIP-1 forcing stopped in 2009. A negative bias in the sea-ice concentration in summer of both hemispheres in OMIP-1 is significantly reduced in OMIP-2. The overall reproducibility of both seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface height (dynamic sea level) is improved in OMIP-2. These improvements represent a new capability of the OMIP-2 framework for evaluating processlevel responses using simulation results. Regarding the sensitivity of individual models to the change in forcing, the models show well-ordered responses for the metrics that are directly forced, while they show less organized responses for those that require complex model adjustments. Many of the remaining common model biases may be attributed either to errors in representing important processes in ocean-sea-ice models, some of which are expected to be reduced by using finer horizontal and/or vertical resolutions, or to shared biases and limitations in the atmospheric forcing. In particular, further efforts are warranted to resolve remaining issues in OMIP-2 such as the warm bias in the upper layer, the mismatch between the observed and simulated variability of heat content and thermosteric sea level before 1990s, and the erroneous representation of deep and bottom water formations and circulations. We suggest that such problems can be resolved through collaboration between those developing models (including parameterizations) and forcing datasets. Overall, the present assessment justifies our recommendation that future model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework

The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond

Controls over Ocean Mesopelagic Interior Carbon Storage (COMICS): Fieldwork, Synthesis, and Modeling Efforts

The ocean's biological carbon pump plays a central role in regulating atmospheric CO2 levels. In particular, the depth at which sinking organic carbon is broken down and respired in the mesopelagic zone is critical, with deeper remineralization resulting in greater carbon storage. Until recently, however, a balanced budget of the supply and consumption of organic carbon in the mesopelagic had not been constructed in any region of the ocean, and the processes controlling organic carbon turnover are still poorly understood. Large-scale data syntheses suggest that a wide range of factors can influence remineralization depth including upper-ocean ecological interactions, and interior dissolved oxygen concentration and temperature. However, these analyses do not provide a mechanistic understanding of remineralization, which increases the challenge of appropriately modeling the mesopelagic carbon dynamics. In light of this, the UK Natural Environment Research Council has funded a programme with this mechanistic understanding as its aim, drawing targeted fieldwork right through to implementation of a new parameterization for mesopelagic remineralization within an IPCC class global biogeochemical model. The Controls over Ocean Mesopelagic Interior Carbon Storage (COMICS) programme will deliver new insights into the processes of carbon cycling in the mesopelagic zone and how these influence ocean carbon storage. Here we outline the programme's rationale, its goals, planned fieldwork, and modeling activities, with the aim of stimulating international collaboration