Population health outcomes in South Korea 1990-2019, and projections up to 2040: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: South Korea has one of the longest operating universal health coverage (UHC) systems. A comprehensive analysis of long-term trajectories of morbidity and mortality in the South Korean population after the inception of UHC is needed to inform health-care policy and practice. METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to present estimates of cause-specific mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in South Korea from 1990 to 2019. We also examined forecasted estimates of YLLs up to 2040 to investigate likely future changes in disease burden. Finally, we evaluated GBD estimates from seven comparator countries to place disease burden in South Korea within a broader context. FINDINGS: Age-standardised DALYs related to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) decreased by 43·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-47·9) and mortality by 58·8% (55·9-60·5) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the ratio of male to female age-standardised rates of YLLs in South Korea was higher than the global average for 75·9% (22 of 29 diseases) of leading causes, indicating a disproportional disease burden on males in South Korea. Among risk factors, tobacco use accounted for the highest number of 2019 deaths (44 470 [95% UI 37 432-53 989]) in males and high systolic blood pressure for the highest number (21 014 [15 553-26 723]) in females. Among the top ten leading causes of YLLs forecast in South Korea in 2040, nine were NCDs, for both males and females. INTERPRETATION: Our report shows a positive landscape of population health outcomes in South Korea following the establishment of UHC. However, due in part to the effects of population ageing driving up medical expenditures for NCDs, financial pressures and sustainability challenges associated with UHC are pressing concerns. Policy makers should work to tackle population ageing and allocate resources efficiently by prioritising interventions that address the leading causes of death and disability identified in this study. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed. Findings In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2–128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33–1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41–17·87] in those aged 80–84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2–74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles. Interpretation The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors

Population health outcomes in South Korea 1990–2019, and projections up to 2040: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary: Background: South Korea has one of the longest operating universal health coverage (UHC) systems. A comprehensive analysis of long-term trajectories of morbidity and mortality in the South Korean population after the inception of UHC is needed to inform health-care policy and practice. Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to present estimates of cause-specific mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in South Korea from 1990 to 2019. We also examined forecasted estimates of YLLs up to 2040 to investigate likely future changes in disease burden. Finally, we evaluated GBD estimates from seven comparator countries to place disease burden in South Korea within a broader context. Findings: Age-standardised DALYs related to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) decreased by 43·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–47·9) and mortality by 58·8% (55·9–60·5) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the ratio of male to female age-standardised rates of YLLs in South Korea was higher than the global average for 75·9% (22 of 29 diseases) of leading causes, indicating a disproportional disease burden on males in South Korea. Among risk factors, tobacco use accounted for the highest number of 2019 deaths (44 470 [95% UI 37 432–53 989]) in males and high systolic blood pressure for the highest number (21 014 [15 553–26 723]) in females. Among the top ten leading causes of YLLs forecast in South Korea in 2040, nine were NCDs, for both males and females. Interpretation: Our report shows a positive landscape of population health outcomes in South Korea following the establishment of UHC. However, due in part to the effects of population ageing driving up medical expenditures for NCDs, financial pressures and sustainability challenges associated with UHC are pressing concerns. Policy makers should work to tackle population ageing and allocate resources efficiently by prioritising interventions that address the leading causes of death and disability identified in this study. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation