Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown

Objective sea level pressure analysis for sparse data areas

A computer procedure was used to analyze the pressure distribution over the North Pacific Ocean for eleven synoptic times in February, 1967. Independent knowledge of the central pressures of lows is shown to reduce the analysis errors for very sparse data coverage. The application of planned remote sensing of sea-level wind speeds is shown to make a significant contribution to the quality of the analysis especially in the high gradient mid-latitudes and for sparse coverage of conventional observations (such as over Southern Hemisphere oceans). Uniform distribution of the available observations of sea-level pressure and wind velocity yields results far superior to those derived from a random distribution. A generalization of the results indicates that the average lower limit for analysis errors is between 2 and 2.5 mb based on the perfect specification of the magnitude of the sea-level pressure gradient from a known verification analysis. A less than perfect specification will derive from wind-pressure relationships applied to satellite observed wind speeds

Downscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA model

The operational performance and usefulness of regional climate models at seasonal time scales are assessed by downscaling an ensemble of global seasonal forecasts. The Rossby Centre RCA regional model was applied to downscale a five-member ensemble from the ECMWF System3 global model in the European Atlantic domain for the period 1981–2001. One month lead time global and regional precipitation predictions were compared over Europe—and particularly over Spain—focusing the study in SON (autumn) dry events. A robust tercile-based probabilistic validation approach was applied to compare the forecasts from global and regional models, obtaining significant skill in both cases, but over a wider area for the later. Finally, we also analyse the performance of a mixed ensemble combining both forecasts

Impact of Climate Change on the Relict Tropical Fish Fauna of Central Sahara: Threat for the Survival of Adrar Mountains Fishes, Mauritania

Background: Four central Sahara mountainous massifs provide habitats for relict populations of fish. In the Adrar of Mauritania all available data on the presence and distribution of fish come from pre-1960 surveys where five fish species were reported: Barbus pobeguini, Barbus macrops, Barbus mirei, Sarotherodon galilaeus, and Clarias anguillaris. Since 1970, drought has had a severe impact in the Adrar where rainfall decreased by 35%. To investigate whether the relict populations of fish have survived the continuing drought, a study was carried out from 2004 to 2008. Methodology/Principal Findings: An inventory of perennial bodies of water was drawn up using a literature review and analysis of topographical and hydrological maps. Field surveys were carried out in order to locate the bodies of water described in the literature, identify the presence of fish, determine which species were present and estimate their abundance. The thirteen sites where the presence of fish was observed in the 1950s -Ksar Torchane, Ilij, Molomhar, Agueni, Tachot, Hamdoun, Terjit, Toungad, El Berbera, Timagazine, Dayet el Mbarek, Dayet et-Tefla, Nkedei-were located and surveyed. The Ksar Torchane spring -type locality and the only known locality of B. mirei- has dried up at the height of the drought in 1984, and any fish populations have since become extinct there. The Timagazine, Dayet el Mbarek and Dayet et-Tefla pools have become ephemeral. The Hamdoun guelta appears to be highly endangered. The fish populations at the other sites remain unchanged. Four perennial pools which are home to populations of B. pobeguini are newly recorded. Conclusion/Significance: The tropical relict fish populations of the Adrar mountains of Mauritania appear to be highly endangered. Of thirteen previously recorded populations, four have become extinct since the beginning of the drought period. New fish population extinctions may occur should low levels of annual rainfall be repeated

Domain choice in an experimental nested modeling prediction system for South America

The purposes of this paper are to evaluate the new version of the regional model, RegCM3, over South America for two test seasons, and to select a domain for use in an experimental nested prediction system, which incorporates RegCM3 and the European Community-Hamburg (ECHAM) general circulation model (GCM). To evaluate RegCM3, control experiments were completed with RegCM3 driven by both the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNRP) and ECHAM, using a small control domain (D-CTRL) and integration periods of January–March 1983 (El Niño) and January–March 1985 (La Niña). The new version of the regional model captures the primary circulation and rainfall differences between the two years over tropical and subtropical South America. Both the NNRP-driven and ECHAM-driven RegCM3 improve the simulation of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) compared to the GCM. However, there are some simulation errors. Irrespective of the driving fields, weak northeasterlies associated with reduced precipitation are observed over the Amazon. The simulation of the South Atlantic convergence zone is poor due to errors in the boundary condition forcing which appear to be amplified by the regional model. To select a domain for use in an experimental prediction system, sensitivity tests were performed for three domains, each of which includes important regional features and processes of the climate system. The domain sensitivity experiments were designed to determine how domain size and the location of the GCM boundary forcing affect the regional circulation, moisture transport, and rainfall in two years with different large scale conditions. First, the control domain was extended southward to include the exit region of the Andes low level jet (D-LLJ), then eastward to include the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL), and finally westward to include the subsidence region of the South Pacific subtropical high and to permit the regional model more freedom to respond to the increased resolution of the Andes Mountains (D-PAC). In order to quantify differences between the domain experiments, measures of bias, root mean square error, and the spatial correlation pattern were calculated between the model results and the observed data for the seasonal average fields. The results show the GCM driving fields have remarkable control over the RegCM3 simulations. Although no single domain clearly outperforms the others in both seasons, the control domain, D-CTRL, compares most favorably with observations. Over the ITCZ region, the simulations were improved by including a large portion of the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL). The methodology presented here provides a quantitative basis for evaluating domain choice in future studies

The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts

Pets as Sentinels of Human Exposure to Neurotoxic Metals

The idea that animals may be used as sentinels of environmental hazards pending over humans and the associated public health implications is not a new one. Nowadays pets are being used as bioindicators for the effects of environmental contaminants in human populations. This is of paramount importance due to the large increase in the worldwide distribution of synthetic chemicals, particularly in the built environment. Companion animals share the habitat with humans being simultaneously exposed to and suffering the same disease spectrum as their masters. Moreover, their shorter latency periods (due to briefer lifespans) enable them to act as early warning systems, allowing timely public health interventions. The rise on ethical constraints on the use of animals and, consequently, on the sampling they can be subjected to has led to the preferential use of noninvasive matrices, and in this case we are looking into hair. This chapter focuses in three non-essential metals: mercury, lead, and cadmium, due to their ubiquitous presence in the built environment and their ability of affecting the mammal nervous system. There is a fairly short amount of studies reporting the concentrations of these metals in pets’ hair, particularly for cats. These studies are characterized, and the metal concentrations corresponding to different parameters (e.g., age, sex, diet, rearing) are described in order to provide the reader with a general vision on the use of this noninvasive matrix on the studies conducted since the last two decades of the twentieth century.publishe

Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model response to climate change but suffers from a lack of an explanation. To this aim, we study the impact of current and future climate change on Sahel precipitation by using the Large Ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In CESM1, global warming leads to a strengthening of the zonal contrast, as shown by the difference between the 2060–2099 period (under a high emission scenario) and the 1960–1999 period (under the historical forcing). The zonal contrast is associated with dynamic shifts in the atmospheric circulation. We show that, in absence of a forced response, that is, when only accounting for internal climate variability, the zonal contrast is associated with the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic oceans variability. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are not necessary to explaining the projected strengthening of the zonal contrast. The mechanisms underlying the simulated changes are elucidated by analysing a set of CMIP5 idealised simulations. We show the increase in precipitation over the central Sahel to be mostly associated with the surface warming over northern Africa, which favour the displacement of the monsoon cell northwards. Over the western Sahel, the decrease in Sahel precipitation is associated with a southward shift of the monsoon circulation, and is mostly due to the warming of the SST. These two mechanisms allow explaining the zonal contrast in precipitation change