Assessing the impacts of shoreline hardening on beach response to hurricanes: Saint-Barthélemy, Lesser Antilles

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Increased population exposure to Amphan‐scale cyclones under future climates

International audienceAbstract Southern Asia experiences some of the most damaging climate events in the world, with loss of life from some cyclones in the hundreds of thousands. Despite this, research on climate extremes in the region is substantially lacking compared to other parts of the world. To understand the narrative of how an extreme event in the region may change in the future, we consider Super Cyclone Amphan, which made landfall in May 2020, bringing storm surges of 2–4 m to coastlines of India and Bangladesh. Using the latest CMIP6 climate model projections, coupled with storm surge, hydrological, and socio‐economic models, we consider how the population exposure to a storm surge of Amphan's scale changes in the future. We vary future sea level rise and population changes consistent with projections out to 2100, but keep other factors constant. Both India and Bangladesh will be negatively impacted, with India showing >200% increased exposure to extreme storm surge flooding (>3 m) under a high emissions scenario and Bangladesh showing an increase in exposure of >80% for low‐level flooding (>0.1 m). It is only when we follow a low‐emission scenario, consistent with the 2°C Paris Agreement Goal, that we see no real change in Bangladesh's storm surge exposure, mainly due to the population and climate signals cancelling each other out. For India, even with this low‐emission scenario, increases in flood exposure are still substantial (>50%). While here we attribute only the storm surge flooding component of the event to climate change, we highlight that tropical cyclones are multifaceted, and damages are often an integration of physical and social components. We recommend that future climate risk assessments explicitly account for potential compounding factors

Evolution of coastal zone vulnerability to marine inundation in a global change context. Application to Languedoc Roussillon (France)

The coastal system is likely to suffer increasing costal risk in a global change context. Its management implies to consider those risks in a holistic approach of the different vulnerability components of the coastal zone, by improving knowledge of hazard and exposure as well as analyzing and quantifying present day and future territory vulnerability. The ANR/VMC2007/MISEEVA project (2008-2011) has applied this approach on Languedoc Roussillon region in France. MISEEVA approach relies on several scenarios for 2030 and 2100, in terms of meteorology (driver of coastal hazard), sea level rise, and also considering further trends in demography and economy, and possible adaption strategies Hazard has been modeled (SWAN, MARS and SURFWB), on the base of the presentday situation, sea level rise hypotheses, and existing or modeled data, of extreme meteorological driving f. It allowed to assess the possible surges ranges and map coastal zone exposure to: - a permanent inundation (considering sea level rise in 2030 and 2100, - a recurrent inundation (considering sea level rise and extreme tidal range) - an exceptional inundation (adding extreme storm surge to sea level rise and tidal range). In 2030, exposure will be comparable to present day exposure. In 2100, extreme condition will affect a larger zone. Present days social and economic components of the coastal zone have been analyzed in terms of vulnerability and potential damaging. Adaptation capacity was approached by public inquiries and interviews of stakeholders and policy makers, based on existing planning documents The knowledge of the present day system is then compared to the possible management strategies that could be chosen in the future, so to imagine what would be the evolution of vulnerability to marine inundation, in regards to these possible strategies

Les forces résistantes de la tectonique des plaques (apport des données gravimétriques dans les modèles numériques)

Cette étude a pour principal objectif d'apporter des contraintes sur la structure! mécanique des zones de subduction et sur l'intensité des forces qui s'opposent à la tectonique des plaques. A l'aide de modèles dynamiques 2D de zone de subduction, cartésiens et instantanés, avec des rhéologies Newtoniennes ou en loi de puissance, nous montrons dans une première partie que les données gravimétriques ne peuvent être reproduites que si le couplage entre les plaques est limité, et que la résistance de la lithosphère subductante lors de la flexure est relativement faible. La gravité et les anomalies de géoïde (de longueurs d'ondes comprises entre 100 km et 4000 km environ) sont en général correctement reproduites dans le cas où les contraintes déviatoriques sont modérées. Nos résultats indiquent que seule une petite portion du poids de la plaque plongeante est transmise à la lithosphère en surface. Près de 10% de l'énergie est dissipée dans la zone de contact entre les plaques, 10-20% dans la région de flexure, et plus de 70% dans le manteau sub-lithosphérique. Les tractions en base de plaques induisent un déplacement net de la lithosphère, qui se traduit par une asymétrie des vitesses en surface. Dans le cas d'une circulation mantellique globale, les anomalies de géoïde déterminées numériquement présentent une "bosse" à des longueurs d'onde intermédiaires ( 2000-4000km), qui n'est pas observée. Nous montrons qu'il est possible de réconcilier les observations avec les prédictions du modèle si l'on tient compte de forces de résistance au flux mantellique associées aux transitions de phases du manteau profond. Afin de mieux comprendre l'origine de ces forces, nous nous sommes intéressés par la suite aux variations volumiques accompagnant les changements de phase. A l'aide de modèles analytiques et numériques simples, nous montrons que les changements de volume "macroscopiques" (à l'échelle du manteau) peuvent altérer de manière significative le flux mantellique et les observables de surface comme la gravimétrie, dans le cas d'une discontinuité fine et visqueuse. En partant du modèle de croissance de grain de Morris [2002], nous montrons par ailleurs que les changements de volume à l'échelle microscopique sont susceptibles d'engendrer des déflections des zones de transitions de plusieurs kilomètres, y compris dans le cas de rhéologies non-Newtoniennes pour lesquelles la viscosité effective est relativement faible.ln this study, we use short -and intermediate- wavelengths gravity and geoid anomalies ( 100-4000km) to provide constraints on the mechanical structure of subduction zones and on the forces involved. We perform 2D instantaneous dynamically self-consistent models with Newtonian or power-law rheologies, and show that both strong decoupling of the two convergent plates and weakened bending lithosphere are necessary to reproduce the observed geoid and gravity data. Good fit are found for relatively low failure stresses. Only a small fraction of the downgoing slab weight is transmitted to the surface plates. About 10% of the energy is dissipated in the contact zone between the two plates, 10% to 20% in the bending region, and more than 70% in the sub-lithospheric mantle. The basal tractions induce a net motion of the plates, with the subducting lithosphere moving faster than predicted by the no-net motion principle. A marked positive geoid anomaly is predicted above subduction zones at intermediate wavelengths ( 2000-4000km) in the case of pure whole mantle convection. Such large geoid highs are not observed. We show that partial layering associated to phase transitions in the deep mantle allows to reconcile modeI prediction and observations for these wavelengths. ln an effort to understand the physical mechanisms involved, we studied the kinetic effects of volumes changes during phase transformations. Using simple analytical and numerical models we show that macroscopic volumes changes can reduce the mantle flow significantly in the case of a thin and viscous discontinuity. Building on the nucleus growth model of Morris [2002], we also show that volume changes on a microscopic scale can induce a deflection of the phase transition zones by several kilometers even in the case of non-Newtonian rheologies and for quite low values of viscosity.ORSAY-PARIS 11-BU Sciences (914712101) / SudocSudocFranceF

La réserve naturelle de Petite-Terre (Guadeloupe) : entre enjeux et vulnérabilité face aux aléas submersion marine

Since the tropical hurricane Hugo devastated Guadeloupe Archipelago in 1989, the island is more or less prepared to face another cyclonic event (alerts, shelters, etc.). On the other hand, tsunamis have only become a great concern in the Caribbean and more particularly in Guadeloupe for a couple of years (after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2010 Haiti earthquake and the 2011 Japan tsunami). Thus research projects have been led to try to assess marine submersion hazards as the INTERREG IV TSUNAHOULE project in which this study of the natural sanctuary of Petite-Terre has been done. Through 3 extreme scenarios chosen in agreement with meteorological and geological knowledge in the region, the modeled impact of a tsunami, a long period north swell, and a 4-5 category hurricane are presented and discussed separately after having detailed the different stakes of the sanctuary, which leads to start on thought about the vulnerability of its inhabitants, temporary or not, in front of those natural hazards

La réserve naturelle de Petite-Terre (Guadeloupe) : entre enjeux et vulnérabilité face aux aléas submersion marine

Since the tropical hurricane Hugo devastated Guadeloupe Archipelago in 1989, the island is more or less prepared to face another cyclonic event (alerts, shelters, etc.). On the other hand, tsunamis have only become a great concern in the Caribbean and more particularly in Guadeloupe for a couple of years (after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2010 Haiti earthquake and the 2011 Japan tsunami). Thus research projects have been led to try to assess marine submersion hazards as the INTERREG IV TSUNAHOULE project in which this study of the natural sanctuary of Petite-Terre has been done. Through 3 extreme scenarios chosen in agreement with meteorological and geological knowledge in the region, the modeled impact of a tsunami, a long period north swell, and a 4-5 category hurricane are presented and discussed separately after having detailed the different stakes of the sanctuary, which leads to start on thought about the vulnerability of its inhabitants, temporary or not, in front of those natural hazards

Potential for landslide-related tsunami in the Dover Strait area (English Chanel) based on numerical modelling

International audienceAlthough earthquakes and tsunamis are less frequent in the Dover Straitthan over active subduction zones, a plausible potential exists for intraplate earthquakes of magnitude Mw=6.9 generating a tsunami with damaging consequences. In April 1580, an earthquake shook the region violently and destructions were reported as far as London in the north andRouen in the south. Despite fair weather conditions, a series of abnormal sea waves was reported in several harbours (Calais, Boulogne and Dover) on the same day. A first step was to produce a range of numerical coseismic tsunami simulations and to compare them with historical witness accounts. Results raise the question of whether such earthquakes could also triggerchalk flow-generated tsunamis along cliff lines on both sides of the Strait. Gravity-driven collapses affect thechalk cliffs periodically, but local tsunami waves caused by very large mass movements could reach heights of several meters and, for example, strike Dover

Potential for landslide-related tsunami in the Dover Strait area (English Chanel) based on numerical modelling

International audienceAlthough earthquakes and tsunamis are less frequent in the Dover Straitthan over active subduction zones, a plausible potential exists for intraplate earthquakes of magnitude Mw=6.9 generating a tsunami with damaging consequences. In April 1580, an earthquake shook the region violently and destructions were reported as far as London in the north andRouen in the south. Despite fair weather conditions, a series of abnormal sea waves was reported in several harbours (Calais, Boulogne and Dover) on the same day. A first step was to produce a range of numerical coseismic tsunami simulations and to compare them with historical witness accounts. Results raise the question of whether such earthquakes could also triggerchalk flow-generated tsunamis along cliff lines on both sides of the Strait. Gravity-driven collapses affect thechalk cliffs periodically, but local tsunami waves caused by very large mass movements could reach heights of several meters and, for example, strike Dover

Discussion about tsunami interaction with fringing coral reef, in: Tsunami events and lessons learned; Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, 2014, 35, 161-176.

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