Adaptive estimation of the transition density of a particular hidden Markov chain

We study the following model of hidden Markov chain: $Y_i=X_i+\epsilon_i$, $i=1,...,n+1$ with $(X_i)$ a real-valued positive recurrent and stationary Markov chain and $(\epsilon_i)_{1\leq i\leq n+1}$ a noise independent of the sequence $(X_i)$ having a known distribution. We present an adaptive estimator of the transition density based on the quotient of a deconvolution estimator of the density of $X_i$ and an estimator of the density of $(X_i,X_{i+1})$. These estimators are obtained by contrast minimization and model selection. We evaluate the $L2$ risk and its rate of convergence for ordinary smooth and supersmooth noise with regard to ordinary smooth and supersmooth chains. Some examples are also detailed

Diminished temperature and vegetation seasonality over northern high latitudes

Global temperature is increasing, especially over northern lands (>50° N), owing to positive feedbacks1. As this increase is most pronounced in winter, temperature seasonality (ST)—conventionally defined as the difference between summer and winter temperatures—is diminishing over time2, a phenomenon that is analogous to its equatorward decline at an annual scale. The initiation, termination and performance of vegetation photosynthetic activity are tied to threshold temperatures3. Trends in the timing of these thresholds and cumulative temperatures above them may alter vegetation productivity, or modify vegetation seasonality (SV), over time. The relationship between ST and SV is critically examined here with newly improved ground and satellite data sets. The observed diminishment of ST and SV is equivalent to 4° and 7° (5° and 6°) latitudinal shift equatorward during the past 30 years in the Arctic (boreal) region. Analysis of simulations from 17 state-of-the-art climate models4 indicates an additional STdiminishment equivalent to a 20° equatorward shift could occur this century. How SV will change in response to such large projected ST declines and the impact this will have on ecosystem services5 are not well understood. Hence the need for continued monitoring6 of northern lands as their seasonal temperature profiles evolve to resemble thosefurther south.Lopullinen vertaisarvioitu käsikirjoitu

First experiences with Lu-177-PSMA-617 therapy for recurrent or metastatic salivary gland cancer

BACKGROUND: Advanced salivary gland cancers become difficult to treat when they are technically irresectable and radiotherapy limits are exceeded. There is also an unmet need to improve palliative systemic therapy. Salivary glands depict the Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) on (68)Ga-PSMA-PET/CT, a transmembrane protein that is targeted for diagnosis and treatment of advanced prostate cancer. Some salivary gland carcinomas also express PSMA. METHODS: This study aimed to retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of (177)Lu-PSMA-617 therapy for recurrent or metastatic salivary gland cancers, as a last resort treatment. Patients with serious tumour-related discomfort for whom no regular option was available were selected and critically re-assessed by the tumour board. Radionuclide therapy eligibility was confirmed when tumour targeting was greater than liver SUVmax on (68)Ga-PSMA-PET/CT. The protocol aimed at four cycles of 6.0–7.4 GBq (177)Lu-PSMA-617 every 6–8 weeks. Clinical response was evaluated by questionnaires and radiological response by (68)Ga-PSMA-PET/CT. RESULTS: Six patients were treated with (177)Lu-PSMA: four adenoid cystic carcinomas, one adenocarcinoma NOS and one acinic cell carcinoma. In two patients, radiological response was observed, showing either stable disease or a partial response, and four patients reported immediate relief of tumour-related symptoms. Most reported side effects were grade 1–2 fatigue, nausea, bone pain and xerostomia. Four patients prematurely discontinued therapy: three due to disease progression and one due to demotivating (grade 1) side-effects. CONCLUSIONS: Palliative (177)Lu-PSMA therapy for salivary gland cancer may lead to rapid relief of tumour-associated discomfort and may even induce disease stabilization. It is safe, relatively well tolerated and can be considered when regular treatment options fail

Pulmonary Predictors of Incident Diabetes in Smokers.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus and its complications are a large and increasing burden for health care worldwide. Reduced pulmonary function has been observed in diabetes (both type 1 and type 2), and this reduction is thought to occur prior to diagnosis. Other measures of pulmonary health are associated with diabetes, including lower exercise tolerance, greater dyspnea, lower quality of life (as measured by the St. George's Respiratory Questionaire [SGRQ]) and susceptibility to lung infection and these measures may also predate diabetes diagnosis. METHODS: We examined 7080 participants in the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene) study who did not report diabetes at their baseline visit and who provided health status updates during 4.2 years of longitudinal follow-up (LFU). We used Cox proportional hazards modeling, censoring participants at final LFU contact, reported mortality or report of incident diabetes to model predictors of diabetes. These models were constructed using known risk factors as well as proposed markers related to pulmonary health, forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), FEV1/FVC, respiratory exacerbations (RE), 6-minute walk distance (6MWD), pulmonary associated quality of life (as measured by the SGRQ), corticosteroid use, chronic bronchitis and dyspnea. RESULTS: Over 21,519 person years of follow-up, 392 of 7080 participants reported incident diabetes which was associated with expected predictors; increased body mass index (BMI), high blood pressure, high cholesterol and current smoking status. Age, gender and accumulated smoking exposure were not associated with incident diabetes. Additionally, preserved ratio with impaired spirometry (PRISm) pattern pulmonary function, reduced 6MWD and any report of serious pulmonary events were associated with incident diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: This cluster of pulmonary indicators may aid clinicians in identifying and treating patients with pre- or undiagnosed diabetes

Specific Immunity to Cytomegalovirus in Pediatric Cardiac Transplantation

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is implicated in endothelial dysfunction and graft damage after pediatric heart transplantation. CMV specific immune responses are thought to be necessary for CMV viral control but there is little data in pediatric heart transplantation. METHODS: We studied 28 consecutive pediatric heart transplant recipients for 1-year posttransplant. CMV-specific T cells expressing IFN-γ, TNF-α and IL-2 in response to ex-vivo stimulation with CMV lysates or peptides were measured. Circulating cytokines were measured in plasma. Generalised Additive Models were applied to the data to model changes of cell population dynamics over time. RESULTS: CMV-specific T cell mediated responses were impaired in the first 8 weeks posttransplant. During this period, 25% of patients had CMV viremia, of which those with viral loads ≥10,000 CMV DNA copies/mL were given ganciclovir. In this group, the frequency of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells producing IFN-γ and the CD8+CD57+GB+ T cell population increased at 12-24 weeks and remained elevated for the duration of the study. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that CMV viremia is associated with CMV specific immune responses and increased CD8+CD57+GB+ cells at 1-year posttransplant, however early responses were not predictive of impending CMV viremia. It remains to be seen if the early CMV immune response detected is associated with endothelial and allograft damage, in light of previous studies demonstrating increased vasculopathy in pediatric patients with CMV viremia

Effects of permafrost aggradation on peat properties as determined from a pan-arctic synthesis of plant macrofossils

©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1002/2015JG003061Permafrost dynamics play an important role in high-latitude peatland carbon balance and are key to understanding the future response of soil carbon stocks. Permafrost aggradation can control the magnitude of the carbon feedback in peatlands through effects on peat properties. We compiled peatland plant macrofossil records for the northern permafrost zone (515 cores from 280 sites) and classified samples by vegetation type and environmental class (fen, bog, tundra and boreal permafrost, thawed permafrost). We examined differences in peat properties (bulk density, carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and organic matter content, C/N ratio) and C accumulation rates among vegetation types and environmental classes. Consequences of permafrost aggradation differed between boreal and tundra biomes, including differences in vegetation composition, C/N ratios, and N content. The vegetation composition of tundra permafrost peatlands was similar to permafrost-free fens, while boreal permafrost peatlands more closely resembled permafrost-free bogs. Nitrogen content in boreal permafrost and thawed permafrost peatlands was significantly lower than in permafrost-free bogs despite similar vegetation types (0.9% versus 1.5% N). Median long-term C accumulation rates were higher in fens (23 g C m-2 y-1) than in permafrost-free bogs (18 g C m-2 y-1), and were lowest in boreal permafrost peatlands (14 g C m-2 y-1). The plant macrofossil record demonstrated transitions from fens to bogs to permafrost peatlands, bogs to fens, permafrost aggradation within fens, and permafrost thaw and re-aggradation. Using data synthesis, we've identified predominant peatland successional pathways, changes in vegetation type, peat properties, and C accumulation rates associated with permafrost aggradation.National Science FoundationUSGS Climate and Land-useChange Research and Development ProgramAcademy of FinlandRoyal Swedish Academy of ScienceYmer-80, Knut & Alice Wallenberg and Ahlmann Foundation

Pneumococcal meningitis: Clinical-pathological correlations (meningene-path)

Pneumococcal meningitis is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. We systematically assessed brain histopathology of 31 patients who died of pneumococcal meningitis from a nationwide study (median age 67 years; 21 (67 %) were male) using a pathology score including inflammation and vascular damage. Of the 27 patients with known time from the admission to death, 14 patients died within 7 days of admission and 13 after 7 days of admission. Eleven of 25 (44 %) patients had been treated with adjunctive dexamethasone therapy. Observed pathological processes were inflammation of medium-large arteries in 30 brains (97 %), cerebral haemorrhage in 24 (77 %), cerebritis in 24 (77 %), thrombosis in 21 (68 %), infarction in 19 (61 %) and ventriculitis in 19 (of 28 cases, 68 %). Inflammation of medium-large arteries led to obstruction of the vascular lumen in 14 (of 31 cases, 45 %). Vascular inflammation was associated with infarction and thrombosis of brain parenchymal vessels. Hippocampal dentate gyrus apoptosis between patients treated with and without dexamethasone was similar (p = 0.66); however, dexamethasone treated patients had higher total pathology score than non-dexamethasone treated patients (p = 0.003). Our study shows that vascular damage is key in the process of brain damage in pneumococcal meningitis. Data and material of this study will be made open-access for translational research in pneumococcal meningitis (MeninGene-Path)

Tetraspanin (TSP-17) Protects Dopaminergic Neurons against 6-OHDA-Induced Neurodegeneration in <i>C. elegans</i>

Parkinson's disease (PD), the second most prevalent neurodegenerative disease after Alzheimer's disease, is linked to the gradual loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. Disease loci causing hereditary forms of PD are known, but most cases are attributable to a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Increased incidence of PD is associated with rural living and pesticide exposure, and dopaminergic neurodegeneration can be triggered by neurotoxins such as 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA). In C. elegans, this drug is taken up by the presynaptic dopamine reuptake transporter (DAT-1) and causes selective death of the eight dopaminergic neurons of the adult hermaphrodite. Using a forward genetic approach to find genes that protect against 6-OHDA-mediated neurodegeneration, we identified tsp-17, which encodes a member of the tetraspanin family of membrane proteins. We show that TSP-17 is expressed in dopaminergic neurons and provide genetic, pharmacological and biochemical evidence that it inhibits DAT-1, thus leading to increased 6-OHDA uptake in tsp-17 loss-of-function mutants. TSP-17 also protects against toxicity conferred by excessive intracellular dopamine. We provide genetic and biochemical evidence that TSP-17 acts partly via the DOP-2 dopamine receptor to negatively regulate DAT-1. tsp-17 mutants also have subtle behavioral phenotypes, some of which are conferred by aberrant dopamine signaling. Incubating mutant worms in liquid medium leads to swimming-induced paralysis. In the L1 larval stage, this phenotype is linked to lethality and cannot be rescued by a dop-3 null mutant. In contrast, mild paralysis occurring in the L4 larval stage is suppressed by dop-3, suggesting defects in dopaminergic signaling. In summary, we show that TSP-17 protects against neurodegeneration and has a role in modulating behaviors linked to dopamine signaling

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered

Association between television viewing and the risk of metabolic syndrome in a community-based population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As a result of metabolic syndrome becoming an important issue during recent decades, many studies have explored the risk factors contributing to its development. However, less attention has been paid to the risk associated with sedentary behavior, especially television viewing. This study examined the association between television viewing time and the risk of having metabolic syndrome in a population of Taiwanese subjects.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This community-based cross-sectional study included 2,353 subjects (1,144 men and 1,209 women) aged 40 and over from October, 2004 to September, 2005. Information about the time spent watching TV was obtained using a self-administered questionnaire. The definition of metabolic syndrome was according to the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel modified for Asians.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to subjects who viewed TV < 14 hr/week, those who viewed TV > 20 hr/week had a 1.50-fold (95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.10, 2.03) risk for men and a 1.93-fold (95% CI: 1.37, 2.71) risk for women of having metabolic syndrome, after adjusting for physical activity and other covariates. Stratifying by the three categories of total activity levels, TV viewing time > 20 hr/week was found to still hold a significant risk for having metabolic syndrome in the lowest of the three categories of total activity level for men and in all three categories of total activity level for women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The findings suggest that TV viewing is an independent risk factor associated with metabolic syndrome in Taiwanese people.</p