Mediation in Syria

This paper compares and contrasts the UN-led Geneva process and the Astana framework on three key dimensions: inclusivity, leverage and strategy. The Astana talks included more militarily relevant actors, both locally and regionally. In terms of strategy, it focused on conflict management. The hard power of the Astana trio provided the leverage to dictate the conditions on the battlefield which led to a frozen conflict situation. Contrastingly, the Geneva process initially excluded a key actor, Iran, and focused on regime change. Later, the UN mediators prioritized conflict settlement geared at positive peace. Without a clear mandate and external leverage, however, the UN-mediation has increasingly been side-lined by the Astana process. This paper argues that the UN needs to enhance its capability leverage in order to remain credible in conflict resolution. Moreover, on the dimension of inclusion, the UN has to define more precise conditions for involving the relevant actors

An analysis of the effect of commissioning sources on retention and promotion of U.S. Army officers

This thesis analyzes the effects of commissioning sources on the retention and promotion of U S Army officers The data in this thesis were taken from the Active Duty Military Master File, with separate data sets for cohorts commissioned from 1981 through 2001 We describe three logistic regression models: Retention to the Grade of O-4, Promotion to O-4, and Promotion to O-5 We conclude that Academy graduates have the lowest retention rates, whereas OCS graduates have the highest retention rates Among male officers, retention rates are higher for ROTC graduates than for those with Direct Appointments; among female officers retention rates are higher for Direct Appointments than ROTC graduates The Promotion to O-4 Model indicates that the effect of commissioning source is different within gender, race and marital status groups The results of the promotion to O-5 model contrasts with those of the O-4 models Academy graduates are more likely to be promoted to Lieutenant Colonel than those from other sources, followed by ROTC graduates and then Direct Appointments The effects of the Army's reduction in force ("drawdown") between 1989 and 1996 are not accounted for in this thesis as they cannot be modeled with the data at hand.http://archive.org/details/annalysisofeffec109451560First Lieutenant, Turkish ArmyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Alien Marine Fishes Deplete Algal Biomass in the Eastern Mediterranean

One of the most degraded states of the Mediterranean rocky infralittoral ecosystem is a barren composed solely of bare rock and patches of crustose coralline algae. Barrens are typically created by the grazing action of large sea urchin populations. In 2008 we observed extensive areas almost devoid of erect algae, where sea urchins were rare, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. To determine the origin of those urchin-less ‘barrens’, we conducted a fish exclusion experiment. We found that, in the absence of fish grazing, a well-developed algal assemblage grew within three months. Underwater fish censuses and observations suggest that two alien herbivorous fish from the Red Sea (Siganus luridus and S. rivulatus) are responsible for the creation and maintenance of these benthic communities with extremely low biomass. The shift from well-developed native algal assemblages to ‘barrens’ implies a dramatic decline in biogenic habitat complexity, biodiversity and biomass. A targeted Siganus fishery could help restore the macroalgal beds of the rocky infralittoral on the Turkish coast

The structure of Mediterranean rocky reef ecosystems across environmental and human gradients, and conservation implications

Historical exploitation of the Mediterranean Sea and the absence of rigorous baselines makes it difficult to evaluate the current health of the marine ecosystems and the efficacy of conservation actions at the ecosystem level. Here we establish the first current baseline and gradient of ecosystem structure of nearshore rocky reefs at the Mediterranean scale. We conducted underwater surveys in 14 marine protected areas and 18 open access sites across the Mediterranean, and across a 31-fold range of fish biomass (from 3.8 to 118 g m22). Our data showed remarkable variation in the structure of rocky reef ecosystems. Multivariate analysis showed three alternative community states: (1) large fish biomass and reefs dominated by non-canopy algae, (2) lower fish biomass but abundant native algal canopies and suspension feeders, and (3) low fish biomass and extensive barrens, with areas covered by turf algae. Our results suggest that the healthiest shallow rocky reef ecosystems in the Mediterranean have both large fish and algal biomass. Protection level and primary production were the only variables significantly correlated to community biomass structure. Fish biomass was significantly larger in well-enforced no-take marine reserves, but there were no significant differences between multi-use marine protected areas (which allow some fishing) and open access areas at the regional scale. The gradients reported here represent a trajectory of degradation that can be used to assess the health of any similar habitat in the Mediterranean, and to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas

Collaborative Database to Track Mass Mortality Events in the Mediterranean Sea

Anthropogenic climate change, and global warming in particular, has strong and increasing impacts on marine ecosystems (Poloczanska et al., 2013; Halpern et al., 2015; Smale et al., 2019). The Mediterranean Sea is considered a marine biodiversity hot-spot contributing to more than 7% of world's marine biodiversity including a high percentage of endemic species (Coll et al., 2010). The Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot, where the respective impacts of warming are very pronounced and relatively well documented (Cramer et al., 2018). One of the major impacts of sea surface temperature rise in the marine coastal ecosystems is the occurrence of mass mortality events (MMEs). The first evidences of this phenomenon dated from the first half of'80 years affecting the Western Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea (Harmelin, 1984; Bavestrello and Boero, 1986; Gaino and Pronzato, 1989; Voultsiadou et al., 2011). The most impressive phenomenon happened in 1999 when an unprecedented large scale MME impacted populations of more than 30 species from different phyla along the French and Italian coasts (Cerrano et al., 2000; Perez et al., 2000). Following this event, several other large scale MMEs have been reported, along with numerous other minor ones, which are usually more restricted in geographic extend and/or number of affected species (Garrabou et al., 2009; Rivetti et al., 2014; Marbà et al., 2015; Rubio-Portillo et al., 2016, authors' personal observations). These events have generally been associated with strong and recurrent marine heat waves (Crisci et al., 2011; Kersting et al., 2013; Turicchia et al., 2018; Bensoussan et al., 2019) which are becoming more frequent globally (Smale et al., 2019). Both field observations and future projections using Regional Coupled Models (Adloff et al., 2015; Darmaraki et al., 2019) show the increase in Mediterranean sea surface temperature, with more frequent occurrence of extreme ocean warming events. As a result, new MMEs are expected during the coming years. To date, despite the efforts, neither updated nor comprehensive information can support scientific analysis of mortality events at a Mediterranean regional scale. Such information is vital to guide management and conservation strategies that can then inform adaptive management schemes that aim to face the impacts of climate change.MV-L was supported by a postdoctoral contract Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación (IJCI-2016-29329) of Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades. AI was supported by a Technical staff contract (PTA2015-10829-I) Ayudas Personal Técnico de Apoyo of Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (2015). Interreg Med Programme (grant number Project MPA-Adapt 1MED15_3.2_M2_337) 85% cofunded by the European Regional Development Fund, the MIMOSA project funded by the Foundation Prince Albert II Monaco and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no 689518 (MERCES). DG-G was supported by an FPU grant (FPU15/05457) from the Spanish Ministry of Education. J-BL was partially supported by the Strategic Funding UID/Multi/04423/2013 through national funds provided by FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), in the framework of the programme PT2020

A Long and Participatory Process towards Successful Fishery Management of Gokova Bay, Turkey

WOS: 000488863700022In Gokova Bay (Turkey), in the Mediterranean Sea, a number of problems were encountered within the small-scale fishing sector, including illegal fishing activities and declines in landings of valuable species, especially groupers (Serranidae) and shrimps (Decapoda crustaceans). Fishing income was not sufficient to sustain the livelihood of fishers who depended solely on fishing. Thanks to a collaboration with academics, government administrators, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and local fishery cooperatives, six no-fishing zones (NFZ) were officially declared in July 2010 to support small-scale fisheries in Gokova Bay. Establishing NFZs, however, increased illegal fishing due to the lack of enforcement and made problems worse rather than providing a solution. in 2012, the Mediterranean Conservation Society (an NGO) established a marine ranger system by training and employing local fishermen as marine rangers, equipping them with fast boats, and working in close cooperation with the Coast Guard. These actions and many others (e.g., supporting marketing of invasive species) have led to conservation of fish stocks as well as an increase in fishers' incomes. Dramatic increases in abundance for some species have occurred in comparison to previous years. Biomass of predator fishes, such as groupers, increased significantly in NFZs. Mean fishing income per vessel reached the highest level ever recorded. Today, we are near the end of a long process to reach a solution for all stakeholders (fishery cooperatives, academics, NGOs, and government officials) in Gokova Bay. Lessons learned in the process were the importance of working together, building trust and cooperation among stakeholders, implementing a marine ranger system for enforcement, creating marketing opportunities for invasive species, and developing a data collection system for improved monitoring. These lessons may be replicated in other areas of Turkey and elsewhere in support of sustainable fisheries

A novel approach for Mediterranean monk seal conservation: an artificial ledge in a marine cave

The Mediterranean monk seal Monachus monachus, categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, comprises 600-700 individuals in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and eastern Atlantic Ocean. Habitat degradation is a severe threat to the species. In 2016 and 2017, coastline surveys were conducted in Gokova Bay, south-west Turkey, to identify suitable monk seal habitat. A significant factor hindering recovery of the monk seal population of this Turkish coast and the nearby Greek islands is the limited number of marine caves suitable for resting and/or pupping. We identified four caves as possible monk seal resting and pupping caves. An additional cave with all essential features for seal usage except a ledge was also identified. An artificial ledge was built in this cave in July 2019 and seal usage was monitored by camera trap until September 2020. A total of 405 camera-trap events were analysed to examine presence of any monk seals on the ledge, and to understand the purpose (resting and/or pupping), frequency of use, sex and age group of any individuals using the cave. One juvenile used the cave four times for resting (420 minutes in total), predominantly nocturnally. This is the first construction of a dry ledge in a cave of this kind for monk seals. The camera recordings suggest this approach could provide habitat for this species in areas where there is insufficient dry protected area on land

Descriptive Capability of Datasets as Proxy of Sea Water Temperature in Coastal Systems: An Evaluation from the Aegean Sea

Scientific and technological progresses have introduced diverse data sources for seawater temperature over broad temporal and spatial ranges. Here, we investigated the performance of satellite and model-based seawater temperature data for different temporal composites and depths. We applied an in-situ temperature time-series obtained in a coastal bottom in the Aegean Sea over three years, as the reference. Both datasets showed largely significant relationships based on cross-correlation analyses and presented descriptive properties of the in-situ conditions at corresponding depths. Based on the results of analyses, the modeling datasets presented more reliable results and representations of in-situ conditions than the datasets obtained from satellite for the coastal region. However, the datasets obtained from the satellite also provided reliable data for all time frames investigated, particularly in the mixed surface layer. Monthly datasets were more effective in providing descriptive values in long term studies. This is the first detailed study to explore the descriptive capacities of modeling for water temperature in coastal environments. According to the results, the selection of a dataset as a proxy for seawater temperature requires careful consideration. The present study provides an extensive baseline for evaluating the suitability of the application of specific datasets as proxies in coastal ecosystems.This study was inspired, motivated, and supported by the EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program: MERCES (full title: Marine Ecosystem Restoration in Changing European Seas; Grant agreement no: 689518) and published as a contribution to the project efforts. We are very grateful to MEDPAN for providing temperature devices.EU [689518

Introduced herbivorous fish create underwater deserts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Trabajo presentado en la 40th Benthic Ecology Meeting, celebrada en Mobile, Alabama, Estados Unidos, en marzo de 2011Peer Reviewe