"The poor have no memories" - Oral histories of women with oral cancer in Pakistan

This thesis explores how women with oral cancer in Pakistan make sense of their experiences. The social context of Pakistan is seen as integral to people’s meanings and experiences because it is intimately connected. Oral history interviews were conducted with fifteen women diagnosed with oral cancer receiving treatment at the Foundation University College of Dentistry, Pakistan. The findings suggested that the pathways to diagnosis with oral cancer could be direct or circuitous. These variations reflected the interplay of the social determinants of health, which included socioeconomic status, gender, beliefs in alternative medicine and religious influences. Socioeconomic status mediated access to diagnosis with some participants reporting extensive consultations with spiritual healers before accessing medical services. This contributed to late presentation for diagnosis. The diagnosis often left participants feeling that God had decided they would develop cancer. Cancer was interpreted as a death sentence and in some cases as a personal punishment. Participants also tended to resort to home remedies and alternative medicines before accessing dental professionals. Gender acted as a determinant by promoting the isolation of women from social participation in education and health. Participants interpreted the use of naswar, areca nut, chillum, bleeding gums, boils/ulcers and past sins as the main causes of oral cancer. Some women reported having to go through their husbands and complex private networks in order to secure diagnosis. This meant that they would often present late, which has implications for disease progression. The social position of women also affected how they made sense of their disease through their faith and talking more about its impact on their family. The findings of this thesis suggest that oral cancer diagnosis in the context of Pakistan develops within complex individual cosmologies and pathways, determined by the perplex interplay of the social determinants of health

Burnout among surgeons before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an international survey

Background: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had many significant impacts within the surgical realm, and surgeons have been obligated to reconsider almost every aspect of daily clinical practice. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study reported in compliance with the CHERRIES guidelines and conducted through an online platform from June 14th to July 15th, 2020. The primary outcome was the burden of burnout during the pandemic indicated by the validated Shirom-Melamed Burnout Measure. Results: Nine hundred fifty-four surgeons completed the survey. The median length of practice was 10 years; 78.2% included were male with a median age of 37 years old, 39.5% were consultants, 68.9% were general surgeons, and 55.7% were affiliated with an academic institution. Overall, there was a significant increase in the mean burnout score during the pandemic; longer years of practice and older age were significantly associated with less burnout. There were significant reductions in the median number of outpatient visits, operated cases, on-call hours, emergency visits, and research work, so, 48.2% of respondents felt that the training resources were insufficient. The majority (81.3%) of respondents reported that their hospitals were included in the management of COVID-19, 66.5% felt their roles had been minimized; 41% were asked to assist in non-surgical medical practices, and 37.6% of respondents were included in COVID-19 management. Conclusions: There was a significant burnout among trainees. Almost all aspects of clinical and research activities were affected with a significant reduction in the volume of research, outpatient clinic visits, surgical procedures, on-call hours, and emergency cases hindering the training. Trial registration: The study was registered on clicaltrials.gov "NCT04433286" on 16/06/2020

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

The Effect of Adult Smoking Behavior on Children\u27s Exposure to Secondhand Smoke. An Analysis Based on Salivary Cotinine Levels Among Children in Dhaka and Karachi

Introduction: Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) risks children\u27s health. However, biomarkers are rarely used to study SHS exposure among children in low- and middle-income countries.Aims and methods: We analyzed cross-sectional data collected between March and November 2022 for a cluster-randomized controlled trial investigating a Smoke-Free Intervention in 2769 children aged 9-15 in 74 schools (34 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and 40 in Karachi, Pakistan). Children\u27s saliva was tested for the concentration of cotinine-a highly sensitive and specific biomarker for SHS exposure. Based on their reports, children\u27s homes were categorized as Nonsmoking Homes (NSH) when residents were nonsmokers; Smoke-free Homes (SFH) when residents and visitors smoked outdoors only; and Smoke-permitted Homes (SPH) when either residents or visitors smoked indoors. We compared cotinine concentrations across these home types and the two cities using a proportional odds model.Results: Overall, 95.7% of children (92% in Dhaka; and 99.4% in Karachi) had cotinine levels between 0.1 and 12 ng/mL, indicating SHS exposure. Median cotinine levels were higher in Karachi (0.58 ng/mL, IQR 0.37 to 0.93) than in Dhaka (0.27 ng/mL, IQR 0.16 to 0.49). Median cotinine concentration was also higher among children living in SPH than those in either NSH or SFH; with absolute differences of approximately 0.1-0.3 and 0.05 ng/mL, respectively.Conclusions: The level of SHS exposure in Dhaka and Karachi indicates widespread and unrestricted smoking. Smoking restrictions in households and enforcement of smoking bans are urgently needed.Implications: The high levels of SHS exposure in children living in SFH suggest parental behavior to hide their smoking and/or exposure in private vehicles or public spaces. It is important to advocate for SFH and cars to protect children from SHS exposure. However, these initiatives alone may not be enough. There is a need to enforce smoking bans in enclosed public places and transportation, as well as extend these bans to playgrounds, parks, fairgrounds, and other public spaces that children frequently visit. It is essential to complement smoking restrictions with tobacco cessation advice and support in these settings

The impact of COVID-19 on smoking patterns in Pakistan : findings from a longitudinal survey of smokers

Introduction We investigated the influence of COVID-19 on smoking patterns in Pakistan. Methods In a longitudnal survey, we asked cigarette smokers in Pakistan about their smoking behaviours before and since COVID-19. Smokers were recruited before COVID-19 using two-stage random probability sampling. Since COVID-19, three subsequent waves were conducted over the telephone, asking additional questions on social determinants, mental health and wellbeing. Based on the first two waves, we estimated the proportion of smokers who stopped, decreased, maintained, or increased smoking. We also explored any factors associated with the change in smoking patterns. In those who stopped smoking soon after COVID-19, we estimated the proportion relapsed in subsequent waves. We estimated all proportions based on complete-case analysis. Results We recruited 6,014 smokers between September 2019 and February 2020; of these, 2,087 (2,062 reported smoking outcomes) were followed up in May 2020 after COVID-19. Since COVID-19, 14% (290/2,062) smokers reported quitting. Among those who continued smoking: 68% (1210/1772) reduced, 14% (239/1772) maintained, and 18% (323/1772) increased cigarette consumption; 37% (351/938) reported at least one quit attempt; 41% (669/1619) were more motivated while 21% (333/1619) were less motivated to quit. Changes in smoking patterns varied with nicotine dependence, motivation to quit, and financial stability since COVID-19. Among those reporting quitting soon after COVID-19, 39% (81/206) relapsed in the subsequent months (June-July 2020). Conclusions There have been significant bidirectional changes in smoking patterns since COVID-19 in Pakistan. While many people stopped, reduced, or tried quitting smoking, some increased smoking, and some relapsed after quitting