Contract Farming in the Mekong Delta's Rice Supply Chain: Insights from an Agent-Based Modeling Study

We would like to thank Michael Maes and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful and constructive feedback. The first author, H. K. Nguyen, would like to acknowledge support from an Australian Government Research Training Program scholarship to study a PhD degree in Computer Science at The University of Newcastle, Australia. R. Chiong is the corresponding author of this paper. The third author, M. Chica, is supported through the Ramón y Cajal program (RYC-2016-19800)In this paper, we use agent-based modeling (ABM) to study different obstacles to the expansion of contract rice farming in the context of Mekong Delta (MKD)'s rice supply chain. ABM is a bottom-up approach for modeling the dynamics of interactions among individuals and complex combinations of various factors (e.g., economic, social or environmental). Our agent-based contract farming model focuses on two critical components of contractual relationship, namely financial incentives and trust. We incorporate the actual recurrent fluctuations of spot market prices, which induce both contractor and farmer agents to renege on the agreement. The agent-based model is then used to predict emergent system-wide behaviors and compare counterfactual scenarios of different policies and initiatives on maintaining the contract rice farming scheme. Simulation results firstly show that a fully-equipped contractor who opportunistically exploits a relatively small proportion (less than 10%) of the contracted farmers in most instances can outperform spot market-based contractors in terms of average profit achieved for each crop. Secondly, a committed contractor who offers lower purchasing prices than the most typical rate can obtain better earnings per ton of rice as well as higher profit per crop. However, those contractors in both cases could not enlarge their contract farming scheme, since either farmers' trust toward them decreases gradually or their offers are unable to compete with the benefits from a competitor or the spot market. Thirdly, the results are also in agreement with the existing literature that the contract farming scheme is not a cost-effective method for buyers with limited rice processing capacity, which is a common situation among the contractors in the MKD region. These results yield significant insights into the difficulty in expanding the agricultural contracting program in the MKD's rice supply chain.Ramón y Cajal program (RYC-2016-19800

The Vietnamese Version of the Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire and the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire:Translation and Cross-cultural Adaptation

OBJECTIVE: To translate and cross-culturally adapt the Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIPQ) and the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ) into Vietnamese. METHODS: We followed the guideline by Beaton et al. (2000 & 2007). Stage I: two translators (informed and uninformed) translated the questionnaires. Stage II: the translations were synthesized. Stage III: back translation was performed by two translators fluent in both Vietnamese and English but naïve to the outcome measurement. Stage IV: seven experts reached consensus on the pre-final Vietnamese version (BIPQ-V and BMQ-V). Stage V: field test of the questionnaires on 16 twelve-year-old students and 31 Vietnamese patients. In addition, we determined the internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the questionnaires in 34 Vietnamese patients with acute coronary syndrome. RESULTS: All experts agreed that there was semantic, idiomatic, experiential, and conceptual equivalence between the original and pre-final Vietnamese versions of the BIPQ and BMQ. Cronbach's alpha coefficients of the internal consistency were acceptable for the BMQ-V Specific-Necessity (0.64), BMQ-V Specific-Concerns (0.62), and BMQ-V General-Harm (0.60), with the exception of BMQ-V General-Overuse (0.27). Intra-class correlation coefficients of the test-retest reliability was acceptable for the subscales of BMQ-V (range: 0.77-0.86), and BIPQ-V items (range: 0.62-0.85) with the exception of BIPQ-V 1 (0.44, 95% CI -014-0.72) and BIPQ-V 4 (0.57, 95% CI 0.22-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: The Vietnamese version of BIPQ and BMQ are reliable tools to assess illness perceptions and beliefs about medicines of patients with acute coronary syndrome. Psychometric properties of these questionnaires should be tested in different patient populations

Assessing the efficacy and safety of magnesium sulfate for management of autonomic nervous system dysregulation in Vietnamese children with severe hand foot and mouth disease.

BACKGROUND: Brainstem encephalitis is a serious complication of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children. Autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysregulation and hypertension may occur, sometimes progressing to cardiopulmonary failure and death. Vietnamese national guidelines recommend use of milrinone if ANS dysregulation with Stage 2 hypertension develops. We wished to investigate whether magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) improved outcomes in children with HFMD if used earlier in the evolution of the ANS dysregulation (Stage 1 hypertension). METHODS: During a regional epidemic we conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of MgSO4 in children with HFMD, ANS dysregulation and Stage 1 hypertension, at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh city. Study participants received an infusion of MgSO4 or matched placebo for 72 h. We also reviewed data from non-trial HFMD patients in whom milrinone failed to control hypertension, some of whom received MgSO4 as second line therapy. The primary outcome for both analyses was a composite of disease progression within 72 h - addition of milrinone (trial participants only), need for ventilation, shock, or death. RESULTS: Between June 2014 and September 2016, 14 and 12 participants received MgSO4 or placebo respectively, before the trial was stopped due to futility. Among 45 non-trial cases with poorly controlled hypertension despite high-dose milrinone, 33 received MgSO4 while 12 did not. There were no statistically significant differences in the composite outcome between the MgSO4 and the placebo/control groups in either study (adjusted relative risk (95%CI) of [6/14 (43%) vs. 6/12 (50%)], 0.84 (0.37, 1.92), p = 0.682 in the trial and [1/33 (3%) vs. 2/12 (17%)], 0.16 (0.01, 1.79), p = 0.132 in the observational cohort). The incidence of adverse events was similar between the groups. Potentially toxic magnesium levels occurred very rarely with the infusion regime used. CONCLUSION: Although we could not demonstrate efficacy in these studies, there were no safety signals associated with use of 30-50 mg/kg/hr. MgSO4 in severe HFMD. Intermittent outbreaks of HFMD are likely to continue across the region, and an adequately powered trial is still needed to evaluate use of MgSO4 in controlling hypertension in severe HFMD, potentially involving a higher dose regimen. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01940250 (Registered 22 AUG 2013). Trial sponsor: University of Oxford

Associations of Underlying Health Conditions With Anxiety and Depression Among Outpatients: Modification Effects of Suspected COVID-19 Symptoms, Health-Related and Preventive Behaviors

Objectives: We explored the association of underlying health conditions (UHC) with depression and anxiety, and examined the modification effects of suspected COVID-19 symptoms (S-COVID-19-S), health-related behaviors (HB), and preventive behaviors (PB).Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 8,291 outpatients aged 18–85 years, in 18 hospitals and health centers across Vietnam from 14th February to May 31, 2020. We collected the data regarding participant's characteristics, UHC, HB, PB, depression, and anxiety.Results: People with UHC had higher odds of depression (OR = 2.11; p < 0.001) and anxiety (OR = 2.86; p < 0.001) than those without UHC. The odds of depression and anxiety were significantly higher for those with UHC and S-COVID-19-S (p < 0.001); and were significantly lower for those had UHC and interacted with “unchanged/more” physical activity (p < 0.001), or “unchanged/more” drinking (p < 0.001 for only anxiety), or “unchanged/healthier” eating (p < 0.001), and high PB score (p < 0.001), as compared to those without UHC and without S-COVID-19-S, “never/stopped/less” physical activity, drinking, “less healthy” eating, and low PB score, respectively.Conclusion: S-COVID-19-S worsen psychological health in patients with UHC. Physical activity, drinking, healthier eating, and high PB score were protective factors

A Systematic Mapping Approach of 16q12.2/FTO and BMI in More Than 20,000 African Americans Narrows in on the Underlying Functional Variation: Results from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study

Genetic variants in intron 1 of the fat mass- and obesity-associated (FTO) gene have been consistently associated with body mass index (BMI) in Europeans. However, follow-up studies in African Americans (AA) have shown no support for some of the most consistently BMI-associated FTO index single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This is most likely explained by different race-specific linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns and lower correlation overall in AA, which provides the opportunity to fine-map this region and narrow in on the functional variant. To comprehensively explore the 16q12.2/FTO locus and to search for second independent signals in the broader region, we fine-mapped a 646-kb region, encompassing the large FTO gene and the flanking gene RPGRIP1L by investigating a total of 3,756 variants (1,529 genotyped and 2,227 imputed variants) in 20,488 AAs across five studies. We observed associations between BMI and variants in the known FTO intron 1 locus: the SNP with the most significant p-value, rs56137030 (8.3×10-6) had not been highlighted in previous studies. While rs56137030was correlated at r2>0.5 with 103 SNPs in Europeans (including the GWAS index SNPs), this number was reduced to 28 SNPs in AA. Among rs56137030 and the 28 correlated SNPs, six were located within candidate intronic regulatory elements, including rs1421085, for which we predicted allele-specific binding affinity for the transcription factor CUX1, which has recently been implicated in the regulation of FTO. We did not find strong evidence for a second independent signal in the broader region. In summary, this large fine-mapping study in AA has substantially reduced the number of common alleles that are likely to be functional candidates of the known FTO locus. Importantly our study demonstrated that comprehensive fine-mapping in AA provides a powerful approach to narrow in on the functional candidate(s) underlying the initial GWAS findings in European populations

Genetic risk of Parkinson disease and progression:: An analysis of 13 longitudinal cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if any association between previously identified alleles that confer risk for Parkinson disease and variables measuring disease progression. METHODS: We evaluated the association between 31 risk variants and variables measuring disease progression. A total of 23,423 visits by 4,307 patients of European ancestry from 13 longitudinal cohorts in Europe, North America, and Australia were analyzed. RESULTS: We confirmed the importance of GBA on phenotypes. GBA variants were associated with the development of daytime sleepiness (p.N370S: hazard ratio [HR] 3.28 [1.69-6.34]) and possible REM sleep behavior (p.T408M: odds ratio 6.48 [2.04-20.60]). We also replicated previously reported associations of GBA variants with motor/cognitive declines. The other genotype-phenotype associations include an intergenic variant near LRRK2 and the faster development of motor symptom (Hoehn and Yahr scale 3.0 HR 1.33 [1.16-1.52] for the C allele of rs76904798) and an intronic variant in PMVK and the development of wearing-off effects (HR 1.66 [1.19-2.31] for the C allele of rs114138760). Age at onset was associated with TMEM175 variant p.M393T (-0.72 [-1.21 to -0.23] in years), the C allele of rs199347 (intronic region of GPNMB, 0.70 [0.27-1.14]), and G allele of rs1106180 (intronic region of CCDC62, 0.62 [0.21-1.03]). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that alleles associated with Parkinson disease risk, in particular GBA variants, also contribute to the heterogeneity of multiple motor and nonmotor aspects. Accounting for genetic variability will be a useful factor in understanding disease course and in minimizing heterogeneity in clinical trials.The Intramural Research Program the National Institute on Aging (NIA, Z01-AG000949-02), Biogen Idec, and the Michael J Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Researc

Differences in the Presentation and Progression of Parkinson's Disease by Sex.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported various symptoms of Parkinson's disease (PD) associated with sex. Some were conflicting or confirmed in only one study. OBJECTIVES: We examined sex associations to PD phenotypes cross-sectionally and longitudinally in large-scale data. METHODS: We tested 40 clinical phenotypes, using longitudinal, clinic-based patient cohorts, consisting of 5946 patients, with a median follow-up of 3.1 years. For continuous outcomes, we used linear regressions at baseline to test sex-associated differences in presentation, and linear mixed-effects models to test sex-associated differences in progression. For binomial outcomes, we used logistic regression models at baseline and Cox regression models for survival analyses. We adjusted for age, disease duration, and medication use. In the secondary analyses, data from 17 719 PD patients and 7588 non-PD participants from an online-only, self-assessment PD cohort were cross-sectionally evaluated to determine whether the sex-associated differences identified in the primary analyses were consistent and unique to PD. RESULTS: Female PD patients had a higher risk of developing dyskinesia early during the follow-up period, with a slower progression in activities of daily living difficulties, and a lower risk of developing cognitive impairments compared with male patients. The findings in the longitudinal, clinic-based cohorts were mostly consistent with the results of the online-only cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We observed sex-associated contributions to PD heterogeneity. These results highlight the necessity of future research to determine the underlying mechanisms and importance of personalized clinical management. © 2020 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.This study was supported by the Intramural Research Program the National Institute on Aging (NIA, Z01-AG000949-02), Biogen Idec, and the Michael J Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research

Fine Mapping and Identification of BMI Loci in African Americans

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) primarily performed in European-ancestry (EA) populations have identified numerous loci associated with body mass index (BMI). However, it is still unclear whether these GWAS loci can be generalized to other ethnic groups, such as African Americans (AAs). Furthermore, the putative functional variant or variants in these loci mostly remain under investigation. The overall lower linkage disequilibrium in AA compared to EA populations provides the opportunity to narrow in or fine-map these BMI-related loci. Therefore, we used the Metabochip to densely genotype and evaluate 21 BMI GWAS loci identified in EA studies in 29,151 AAs from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study. Eight of the 21 loci (SEC16B, TMEM18, ETV5, GNPDA2, TFAP2B, BDNF, FTO, and MC4R) were found to be associated with BMI in AAs at 5.8 × 10−5. Within seven out of these eight loci, we found that, on average, a substantially smaller number of variants was correlated (r2 > 0.5) with the most significant SNP in AA than in EA populations (16 versus 55). Conditional analyses revealed GNPDA2 harboring a potential additional independent signal. Moreover, Metabochip-wide discovery analyses revealed two BMI-related loci, BRE (rs116612809, p = 3.6 × 10−8) and DHX34 (rs4802349, p = 1.2 × 10−7), which were significant when adjustment was made for the total number of SNPs tested across the chip. These results demonstrate that fine mapping in AAs is a powerful approach for both narrowing in on the underlying causal variants in known loci and discovering BMI-related loci