An empirical model of imperfect dynamic competition and application to hydroelectricity storage

The Nordic power market presents a unique opportunity for testing the nature and degree of market power in storage behavior due to preciseness of data on market fundamentals determining hydro resource use. We develop an explicit model of dynamic imperfect competition mapping the primitive distributions to market outcomes as a function of the market structure. We estimate the market structure that best explains the main behavioral patterns in pricing, storage, and production in years 2000-05. Exceptional events in the data allow us to identify a pattern for market power. We simulate the expected effiency loss from the pattern and limited scope for social losses. Market power however increases expected reservoir and price levels, and also implies an increase in price risk.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

Pessimism, diet, and the ability to improve dietary habits : a three-year follow-up study among middle-aged and older Finnish men and women

BackgroundDietary habits have a great influence on physiological health. Even though this fact is generally recognized, people do not eat as healthily as they know they should. The factors that support a healthy diet, on the other hand, are not well known. It is supposed that there is a link between personal traits and dietary habits. Personal traits may also partially explain why some people manage to make healthy dietary changes while some fail to do so or are not able to try to make changes even when they desire to do so. There is some information suggesting that dispositional optimism plays a role in succeeding in improving dietary habits. The aim of this study was to determine the role of optimism and pessimism in the process of dietary changes.MethodsDispositional optimism and pessimism were determined using the revised Life Orientation Test in 2815 individuals (aged 52-76years) participating in the GOAL study in the region of Lahti, Finland. The dietary habits of the study subjects were analysed. After 3years, the subjects' dietary habits and their possible improvements were registered. The associations between dispositional optimism and pessimism, dietary habits at baseline, and possible changes in dietary habits during the follow-up were studied with logistic regression. We also studied if the dietary habits or certain lifestyle factors (e.g. physical exercising and smoking) at baseline predicted success in improving the diet.ResultsPessimism seemed to correlate clearly negatively with the healthiness of the dietary habits at baseline - i.e. the higher the level of pessimism, the unhealthier the diet. Optimism also showed a correlation with dietary habits at baseline, although to a lesser extent. Those who managed to improve their dietary habits during follow-up or regarded their dietary habits as healthy enough even without a change were less pessimistic at baseline than those who failed in their attempts to improve their diet or did not even try, even when they recognized the need for a change.ConclusionsPessimistic people are more likely to eat an unhealthy diet than others. Pessimism reduces independently the possibilities to improve dietary patterns.Peer reviewe

Long-Term Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) After Redo-Fundoplication

Background We aim to shed light on long-term subjective outcomes after re-operations for failed fundoplication. Methods 1809 patients were operated on for hiatal hernia and/or gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) at the Helsinki University Hospital between 2000 and 2017. 111 (6%) of these had undergone a re-operation for a failed antireflux operation. Overall, HRQoL was assessed in 89 patients at the latest follow-up using the generic 15D (c) instrument. The results were compared to a sample of the general population, weighted to reflect the age and gender distribution of patients. Disease-specific HRQoL was assessed using the GERD-HRQoL questionnaire. We studied variation in the overall HRQoL with respect to disease-specific HRQoL and known patients' parameters using univariate and multivariable linear regression models. Results The median postoperative follow-up period was 9.3 years. All patients were operated on laparoscopically (6% conversion rate), and 87% were satisfied with the re-operation. Postoperative complications were minimal (5%). Twelve patients (11%) underwent a second re-operation. The median GERD-HRQoL score was nine. In multivariable analysis, four variables were independently associated with the 15D score, suggesting a decrease in the 15D score with increasing GERD-HRQoL score, increasing Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the presence of chronic pain syndrome (CPS) and depression. Conclusion Re-do LF is a safe procedure in experienced hands and may offer acceptable long-term alleviation in patients with recurring symptoms after antireflux surgery. Decreased HRQoL in the long run is related to recurring GERD and co-morbidities.Peer reviewe

Kaivosveron vaihtoehdot ja niiden vertailu

Hankkeessa arvioitiin vaihtoehtoisia tapoja kerätä yhteiskunnalle korvaus uusiutumattomien mineraalivarojen käytöstä. Siinä kartoitettiin keskeinen vero-oikeudellinen ja taloustieteellinen kirjallisuus sekä kaivostoimintaa koskeva ympäristösääntely. Veromalleiksi valikoitui kaksi tuotantoveroa (määrärojalti ja arvorojalti) ja kaksi kaivosten nettotuloon kohdistuvaa veroa (voittovero ja renttivero). Niitä vertailtiin tutkimuskirjallisuuden ja simulointimallin avulla. Simulointilaskelmat rajautuivat metallimineraalien louhintaan. Rojaltien etuja ovat tasainen verotuotto ja helpohko toimeenpano sekä haittoja kielteiset kannustevaikutukset investointeihin ja tuotantoon. Nettotuloon kohdistuvien verojen edut ja haitat ovat päinvastaiset. Esim. renttivero ei vääristä yritysten taloudellisia valintoja, mutta se voi olla vaativa toimeenpanna ja sen tuotto vaihtelee. Jos tavoitteena on kerätä veroja vähäisin taloudellisin vääristymin, renttivero on suositeltavin vaihtoehto. Jos taas halutaan vakautta verotuottoon ja nostaa louhimisen kannattavuuskynnystä, tämä voidaan tehdä matalan rojaltin ja renttiveron yhdistelmällä. Kaivosten sähköveroluokan muutos kerryttäisi pienehkön verotuoton. Samalla se nostaisi sähköä käyttävän teknologian kustannuksia ja heikentäisi kannustetta tuotannon sähköistämiseen. Kaivosvero soveltuu huonosti kuntien tulolähteeksi. Kaivoskuntien taloudelliseen tukemiseen on tehokkaampia keinoja.Tämä julkaisu on toteutettu osana valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimussuunnitelman toimeenpanoa.(tietokayttoon.fi) Julkaisun sisällöstä vastaavat tiedon tuottajat, eikä tekstisisältö välttämättä edusta valtioneuvoston näkemystä

The abundance of health-associated bacteria is altered in PAH polluted soils-Implications for health in urban areas?

Long-term exposure to polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) has been connected to chronic human health disorders. It is also well-known that i) PAH contamination alters soil bacterial communities, ii) human microbiome is associated with environmental microbiome, and iii) alteration in the abundance of members in several bacterial phyla is associated with adverse or beneficial human health effects. We hypothesized that soil pollution by PAHs altered soil bacterial communities that had known associations with human health. The rationale behind our study was to increase understanding and potentially facilitate reconsidering factors that lead to health disorders in areas characterized by PAH contamination. Large containers filled with either spruce forest soil, pine forest soil, peat, or glacial sand were left to incubate or contaminated with creosote. Biological degradation of PAHs was monitored using GC-MS, and the bacterial community composition was analyzed using 454 pyrosequencing. Proteobacteria had higher and Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes had lower relative abundance in creosote contaminated soils than in non-contaminated soils. Earlier studies have demonstrated that an increase in the abundance of Proteobacteria and decreased abundance of the phyla Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes are particularly associated with adverse health outcomes and immunological disorders. Therefore, we propose that pollution-induced shifts in natural soil bacterial community, like in PAH-polluted areas, can contribute to the prevalence of chronic diseases. We encourage studies that simultaneously address the classic "adverse toxin effect" paradigm and our novel "altered environmental microbiome" hypothesis.Peer reviewe

Yard vegetation is associated with gut microbiota composition

Gut microbes play an essential role in the development and functioning of the human immune system. A disturbed gut microbiota composition is often associated with a number of health disorders including immune-mediated diseases. Differences in host characteristics such as ethnicity, living habit and diet have been used to explain differences in the gut microbiota composition in inter-continental comparison studies. As our previous studies imply that daily skin contact with organic gardening materials modify gut microflora, here we investigated the association between living environment and gut microbiota in a homogenous western population along an urban-rural gradient. We obtained stool samples from 48 native elderly Finns in province Hame in August and November 2015 and identified the bacterial phylotypes using 16S rRNA Illumina MiSeq sequencing. We assumed that yard vegetation and land cover classes surrounding homes explain the stool bacterial community in generalized linear mixed models. Diverse yard vegetation was associated with a reduced abundance of Clostridium sensu stricto and an increased abundance of Faecalibacterium and Prevotellaceae. The abundance of Bacteroides was positively and strongly associated with the built environment. Exclusion of animal owners did not alter the main associations. These results suggest that diverse vegetation around homes is associated with health-related changes in gut microbiota composition. Manipulation of the garden diversity, possibly jointly with urban planning, is a promising candidate for future intervention studies that aim to maintain gut homeostasis. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Introduction and Rapid Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant and Dynamics of BA.1 and BA.1.1 Sublineages, Finland, December 2021

Multiple introductions of SARS-COV-2 Omicron variant BA.1 and BA.1.1. lineages to Finland were detected in early December 2021. Within 3 weeks, Omicron overtook Delta as the most common variant in the capital region. Sequence analysis demonstrated the emergence and spread through community transmission of a large cluster of BA.1.1 virus.Peer reviewe