Evaluation of geospatial methods to generate subnational HIV prevalence estimates for local level planning

Objective: There is evidence of substantial subnational variation in the HIV epidemic. However, robust spatial HIV data are often only available at high levels of geographic aggregation and not at the finer resolution needed for decision making. Therefore, spatial analysis methods that leverage available data to provide local estimates of HIV prevalence may be useful. Such methods exist but have not been formally compared when applied to HIV. Design/methods: Six candidate methods – including those used by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to generate maps and a Bayesian geostatistical approach applied to other diseases – were used to generate maps and subnational estimates of HIV prevalence across three countries using cluster level data from household surveys. Two approaches were used to assess the accuracy of predictions: internal validation, whereby a proportion of input data is held back (test dataset) to challenge predictions; and comparison with location-specific data from household surveys in earlier years. Results: Each of the methods can generate usefully accurate predictions of prevalence at unsampled locations, with the magnitude of the error in predictions similar across approaches. However, the Bayesian geostatistical approach consistently gave marginally the strongest statistical performance across countries and validation procedures. Conclusions: Available methods may be able to furnish estimates of HIV prevalence at finer spatial scales than the data currently allow. The subnational variation revealed can be integrated into planning to ensure responsiveness to the spatial features of the epidemic. The Bayesian geostatistical approach is a promising strategy for integrating HIV data to generate robust local estimates

Reproductive health services for populations at high risk of HIV: Performance of a night clinic in Tete province, Mozambique

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different models exist to provide HIV/STI services for most-at-risk populations (MARP). Along the Tete traffic corridor in Mozambique, linking Malawi and Zimbabwe, a night clinic opening between 4 and 10 PM was established targeting female sex workers (FSW) and long-distance truck drivers (LDD). The clinic offers free individual education and counselling, condoms, STI care, HIV testing, contraceptive services and outreach peer education. To evaluate this clinic model, we assessed relevance, service utilisation, efficiency and sustainability.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2007-2009, mapping and enumeration of FSW and LDD was conducted; 28 key informants were interviewed; 6 focus group discussions (FGD) were held with FSW from Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and LDD from Mozambique and Malawi. Clinic outputs and costs were analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An estimated 4,415 FSW work in the area, or 9% of women aged 15-49, and on average 66 trucks stay overnight near the clinic. Currently on average, 475 clients/month visit the clinic (43% for contraception, 24% for counselling and testing and 23% for STI care). The average clinic running cost is US$ 1408/month, mostly for human resources. All informants endorsed this clinic concept and the need to expand the services. FGD participants reported high satisfaction with the services and mentioned good reception by the health staff, short waiting times, proximity and free services as most important. Participants were in favour of expanding the range of services, the geographical coverage and the opening times.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Size of the target population, satisfaction of clients and endorsement by health policy makers justify maintaining a separate clinic for MARP. Cost-effectiveness may be enhanced by broadening the range of SRHR-HIV/AIDS services, adapting opening times, expanding geographical coverage and targeting additional MARP. Long-term sustainability remains challenging and requires private-public partnerships or continued project-based funding.</p

Evaluating social outcomes of HIV/AIDS interventions: a critical assessment of contemporary indicator frameworks

Introduction: Contemporary HIV-related theory and policy emphasize the importance of addressing the social drivers of HIV risk and vulnerability for a long-term response. Consequently, increasing attention is being given to social and structural interventions, and to social outcomes of HIV interventions. Appropriate indicators for social outcomes are needed in order to institutionalize the commitment to addressing social outcomes. This paper critically assesses the current state of social indicators within international HIV/AIDS monitoring and evaluation frameworks. Methods: We analyzed the indicator frameworks of six international organizations involved in efforts to improve and synchronize the monitoring and evaluation of the HIV/AIDS response. Our analysis classifies the 328 unique indicators according to what they measure and assesses the degree to which they offer comprehensive measurement across three dimensions: domains of the social context, levels of change and organizational capacity. Results and discussion: The majority of indicators focus on individual-level (clinical and behavioural) interventions and outcomes, neglecting structural interventions, community interventions and social outcomes (e.g. stigma reduction; community capacity building; policy-maker sensitization). The main tool used to address social aspects of HIV/AIDS is the disaggregation of data by social group. This raises three main limitations. Indicator frameworks do not provide comprehensive coverage of the diverse social drivers of the epidemic, particularly neglecting criminalization, stigma, discrimination and gender norms. There is a dearth of indicators for evaluating the social impacts of HIV interventions. Indicators of organizational capacity focus on capacity to effectively deliver and manage clinical services, neglecting capacity to respond appropriately and sustainably to complex social contexts. Conclusions: Current indicator frameworks cannot adequately assess the social outcomes of HIV interventions. This limits knowledge about social drivers and inhibits the institutionalization of social approaches within the HIV/AIDS response. We conclude that indicator frameworks should expand to offer a more comprehensive range of social indicators for monitoring and evaluation and to include indicators of organizational capacity to tackle social drivers. While such expansion poses challenges for standardization and coordination, we argue that the complexity of interventions producing social outcomes necessitates capacity for flexibility and local tailoring in monitoring and evaluation

Modelling the impact of women’s education on fertility in Malawi

Many studies have suggested that there is an inverse relationship between education and number of children among women from sub-Saharan Africa countries, including Malawi. However, a crucial limitation of these analyses is that they do not control for the potential endogeneity of education. The aim of our study is to estimate the role of women’s education on their number of children in Malawi, accounting for the possible presence of endogeneity and for nonlinear effects of continuous observed confounders. Our analysis is based on micro data from the 2010 Malawi Demographic Health Survey, and uses a flexible instrumental variable regression approach. The results suggest that the relationship of interest is affected by endogeneity and exhibits an inverted U-shape among women living in rural areas of Malawi, whereas it exhibits an inverse (nonlinear) relationship for women living in urban areas

Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change

Regional inequalities in under-5 mortality in Nigeria: a population-based analysis of individual- and community-level determinants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Regions with geographically diverse ecology and socioeconomic circumstances may have different disease exposures and child health outcomes. This study assessed variations in the risks of death in children under age 5 across regions of Nigeria and determined characteristics at the individual and community levels that explain possible variations among regions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Multilevel Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed using a nationally representative sample of 6,029 children from 2,735 mothers aged 15-49 years and nested within 365 communities from the 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to express measures of association among the characteristics. Variance partition coefficients and Wald statistic were used to express measures of variation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patterns of under-5 mortality cluster within families and communities. The risks of under-5 deaths were significantly higher for children of mothers residing in the South South (Niger Delta) region (HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.76-2.20) and children of mothers residing in communities with a low proportion of mothers attending prenatal care by a doctor (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.15-1.86). In addition, the cross-level interaction between mothers' education and community prenatal care by a doctor was associated with a more than 40% higher risk of dying (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.21-1.78).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The findings suggest the need to differentially focus on community-level interventions aimed at increasing maternal and child health care utilization and improving the socioeconomic position of mothers, especially in disadvantaged regions such as the South South (Niger Delta) region. Further studies on community-levels determinants of under-5 mortality are needed.</p