Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Central venous catheter use in severe malaria: time to reconsider the World Health Organization guidelines?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To optimize the fluid status of adult patients with severe malaria, World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines recommend the insertion of a central venous catheter (CVC) and a target central venous pressure (CVP) of 0-5 cmH₂O. However there are few data from clinical trials to support this recommendation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-eight adult Indian and Bangladeshi patients admitted to the intensive care unit with severe <it>falciparum </it>malaria were enrolled in the study. All patients had a CVC inserted and had regular CVP measurements recorded. The CVP measurements were compared with markers of disease severity, clinical endpoints and volumetric measures derived from transpulmonary thermodilution.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was no correlation between the admission CVP and patient outcome (p = 0.67) or disease severity (p = 0.33). There was no correlation between the baseline CVP and the concomitant extravascular lung water (p = 0.62), global end diastolic volume (p = 0.88) or cardiac index (p = 0.44). There was no correlation between the baseline CVP and the likelihood of a patient being fluid responsive (p = 0.37). On the occasions when the CVP was in the WHO target range patients were usually hypovolaemic and often had pulmonary oedema by volumetric measures. Seven of 28 patients suffered a complication of the CVC insertion, although none were fatal.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The WHO recommendation for the routine insertion of a CVC, and the maintenance of a CVP of 0-5 cmH₂O in adults with severe malaria, should be reconsidered.</p

Impact of Cardiovascular Risk Factors on Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Degree of Severity: A Cross-Sectional Study

OBJECTIVE: Age, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes are common cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) that contribute to the development of atherosclerosis in cardiovascular system including carotid artery disease. However, the impact of these risk factors on the increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and degree of carotid severity remains to be further clarified. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between CVRFs and degree of carotid severity and cIMT in high-risk subjects. METHODS: Four thousand and three hundred ninety-four subjects with one or more risk factors were retrospectively reviewed in this study. Patients were divided into different groups based on age, the type and quantity of CVRFs. cIMT and degree of carotid artery stenosis were measured and analyzed based on carotid ultrasound imaging with findings compared to the CVRFs to determine the correlation between these variables. RESULTS: Aging was significantly associated with degree of severity (P &lt; 0.05) and cIMT was significantly increased with age (P &lt; 0.05). Individual CVRF analysis shows that hypertension was more related to the degree of severity than dyslipidemia and diabetes with corresponding abnormal cIMT rates being 79.39%, 72.98% and 32.37%, respectively. The prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis were 20.06%, 22.88% and 28.63%, respectively corresponding to patients with zero, one and more than one chronic diseases. The percentage of abnormal cIMT in hypertensive patient group with dyslipidemia is significantly higher than the other groups (P&lt; 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a direct correlation between the degree of carotid severity and cIMT and cardiovascular risk factors, especially with age and hypertension. Carotid atherosclerosis is closely related to the number of cardiovascular risk factors

Growth factor concentrations and their placental mRNA expression are modulated in gestational diabetes mellitus: possible interactions with macrosomia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a form of diabetes that occurs during pregnancy. GDM is a well known risk factor for foetal overgrowth, termed macrosomia which is influenced by maternal hypergycemia and endocrine status through placental circulation. The study was undertaken to investigate the implication of growth factors and their receptors in GDM and macrosomia, and to discuss the role of the materno-foeto-placental axis in the <it>in-utero </it>regulation of foetal growth.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>30 women with GDM and their 30 macrosomic babies (4.75 ± 0.15 kg), and 30 healthy age-matched pregnant women and their 30 newborns (3.50 ± 0.10 kg) were recruited in the present study. Serum concentrations of GH and growth factors, <it>i.e</it>., IGF-I, IGF-BP3, FGF-2, EGF and PDGF-B were determined by ELISA. The expression of mRNA encoding for GH, IGF-I, IGF-BP3, FGF-2, PDGF-B and EGF, and their receptors, <it>i.e</it>., GHR, IGF-IR, FGF-2R, EGFR and PDGFR-β were quantified by using RT-qPCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The serum concentrations of IGF-I, IGF-BP3, EGF, FGF-2 and PDGF-B were higher in GDM women and their macrosomic babies as compared to their respective controls. The placental mRNA expression of the growth factors was either upregulated (FGF-2 or PDGF-B) or remained unaltered (IGF-I and EGF) in the placenta of GDM women. The mRNA expression of three growth factor receptors, <it>i.e</it>., IGF-IR, EGFR and PDGFR-β, was upregulated in the placenta of GDM women. Interestingly, serum concentrations of GH were downregulated in the GDM women and their macrosomic offspring. Besides, the expression of mRNAs encoding for GHR was higher, but that encoding for GH was lower, in the placenta of GDM women than control women.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results demonstrate that growth factors might be implicated in GDM and, in part, in the pathology of macrosomia via materno-foeto-placental axis.</p

SPARC 2019 Fake news & home truths : Salford postgraduate annual research conference book of abstracts

Welcome to the Book of Abstracts for the 2019 SPARC conference. This year we not only celebrate the work of our PGRs but also our first ever Doctoral School Best Supervisor awards, which makes this year’s conference extra special. Once again we have received a tremendous contribution from our postgraduate research community; with over 90 presenters, the conference truly showcases a vibrant, innovative and collaborative PGR community at Salford. These abstracts provide a taster of the inspiring, relevant and impactful research in progress, and provide delegates with a reference point for networking and initiating critical debate. Find an abstract that interests you, and say “Hello” to the author. Who knows what might result from your conversation? With such wide-ranging topics being showcased, we encourage you to take up this great opportunity to engage with researchers working in different subject areas from your own. To meet global challenges, high impact research needs interdisciplinary collaboration. This is recognised and rewarded by all major research funders. Engaging with the work of others and forging collaborations across subject areas is an essential skill for the next generation of researchers. Even better, our free ice cream van means that you can have those conversations while enjoying a refreshing ice lolly

The Rotterdam Study: 2010 objectives and design update

The Rotterdam Study is a prospective cohort study ongoing since 1990 in the city of Rotterdam in The Netherlands. The study targets cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric and respiratory diseases. As of 2008, 14,926 subjects aged 45 years or over comprise the Rotterdam Study cohort. The findings of the Rotterdam Study have been presented in close to a 1,000 research articles and reports (see www.epib.nl/rotterdamstudy). This article gives the rationale of the study and its design. It also presents a summary of the major findings and an update of the objectives and methods

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.Peer reviewe

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. // Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. // Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. // Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines