When Models Interact with their Subjects: The Dynamics of Model Aware Systems

A scientific model need not be a passive and static descriptor of its subject. If the subject is affected by the model, the model must be updated to explain its affected subject. In this study, two models regarding the dynamics of model aware systems are presented. The first explores the behavior of "prediction seeking" (PSP) and "prediction avoiding" (PAP) populations under the influence of a model that describes them. The second explores the publishing behavior of a group of experimentalists coupled to a model by means of confirmation bias. It is found that model aware systems can exhibit convergent random or oscillatory behavior and display universal 1/f noise. A numerical simulation of the physical experimentalists is compared with actual publications of neutron life time and {\Lambda} mass measurements and is in good quantitative agreement.Comment: Accepted for publication in PLoS-ON

Functional Data Analysis Applied to Modeling of Severe Acute Mucositis and Dysphagia Resulting From Head and Neck Radiation Therapy.

Purpose Current normal tissue complication probability modeling using logistic regression suffers from bias and high uncertainty in the presence of highly correlated radiation therapy (RT) dose data. This hinders robust estimates of dose-response associations and, hence, optimal normal tissue-sparing strategies from being elucidated. Using functional data analysis (FDA) to reduce the dimensionality of the dose data could overcome this limitation.Methods and materials FDA was applied to modeling of severe acute mucositis and dysphagia resulting from head and neck RT. Functional partial least squares regression (FPLS) and functional principal component analysis were used for dimensionality reduction of the dose-volume histogram data. The reduced dose data were input into functional logistic regression models (functional partial least squares-logistic regression [FPLS-LR] and functional principal component-logistic regression [FPC-LR]) along with clinical data. This approach was compared with penalized logistic regression (PLR) in terms of predictive performance and the significance of treatment covariate-response associations, assessed using bootstrapping.Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models was 0.65, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 0.81, 0.83, and 0.83, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The calibration slopes/intercepts for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models were 1.6/-0.67, 0.45/0.47, and 0.40/0.49, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 2.5/-0.96, 0.79/-0.04, and 0.79/0.00, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The bootstrapped odds ratios indicated significant associations between RT dose and severe toxicity in the mucositis and dysphagia FDA models. Cisplatin was significantly associated with severe dysphagia in the FDA models. None of the covariates was significantly associated with severe toxicity in the PLR models. Dose levels greater than approximately 1.0 Gy/fraction were most strongly associated with severe acute mucositis and dysphagia in the FDA models.Conclusions FPLS and functional principal component analysis marginally improved predictive performance compared with PLR and provided robust dose-response associations. FDA is recommended for use in normal tissue complication probability modeling

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) Modelling of Severe Acute Mucositis using a Novel Oral Mucosal Surface Organ at Risk.

Aims A normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of severe acute mucositis would be highly useful to guide clinical decision making and inform radiotherapy planning. We aimed to improve upon our previous model by using a novel oral mucosal surface organ at risk (OAR) in place of an oral cavity OAR.Materials and methods Predictive models of severe acute mucositis were generated using radiotherapy dose to the oral cavity OAR or mucosal surface OAR and clinical data. Penalised logistic regression and random forest classification (RFC) models were generated for both OARs and compared. Internal validation was carried out with 100-iteration stratified shuffle split cross-validation, using multiple metrics to assess different aspects of model performance. Associations between treatment covariates and severe mucositis were explored using RFC feature importance.Results Penalised logistic regression and RFC models using the oral cavity OAR performed at least as well as the models using mucosal surface OAR. Associations between dose metrics and severe mucositis were similar between the mucosal surface and oral cavity models. The volumes of oral cavity or mucosal surface receiving intermediate and high doses were most strongly associated with severe mucositis.Conclusions The simpler oral cavity OAR should be preferred over the mucosal surface OAR for NTCP modelling of severe mucositis. We recommend minimising the volume of mucosa receiving intermediate and high doses, where possible

A framework for developing an evidence-based, comprehensive tobacco control program

BACKGROUND: Tobacco control is an area where the translation of evidence into policy would seem to be straightforward, given the wealth of epidemiological, behavioural and other types of research available. Yet, even here challenges exist. These include information overload, concealment of key (industry-funded) evidence, contextualization, assessment of population impact, and the changing nature of the threat. METHODS: In the context of Israel's health targeting initiative, Healthy Israel 2020, we describe the steps taken to develop a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. We elaborate on the following: a) scientific issues influencing the choice of tobacco control strategies; b) organization of existing evidence of effectiveness of interventions into a manageable form, and c) consideration of relevant philosophical and political issues. We propose a framework for developing a plan and illustrate this process with a case study in Israel. RESULTS: Broad consensus exists regarding the effectiveness of most interventions, but current recommendations differ in the emphasis they place on different strategies. Scientific challenges include integration of complex and sometimes conflicting information from authoritative sources, and lack of estimates of population impact of interventions. Philosophical and political challenges include the use of evidence-based versus innovative policymaking, the importance of individual versus governmental responsibility, and whether and how interventions should be prioritized.The proposed framework includes: 1) compilation of a list of potential interventions 2) modification of that list based on local needs and political constraints; 3) streamlining the list by categorizing interventions into broad groupings of related interventions; together these groupings form the basis of a comprehensive plan; and 4) refinement of the plan by comparing it to existing comprehensive plans. CONCLUSIONS: Development of a comprehensive tobacco control plan is a complex endeavour, involving crucial decisions regarding intervention components. "Off the shelf" plans, which need to be adapted to local settings, are available from a variety of sources, and a multitude of individual recommendations are available. The proposed framework for adapting existing approaches to the local social and political climate may assist others planning for smoke-free societies. Additionally, this experience has implications for development of evidence-based health plans addressing other risk factors

A 32 kb Critical Region Excluding Y402H in CFH Mediates Risk for Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Complement factor H shows very strong association with Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD), and recent data suggest that multiple causal variants are associated with disease. To refine the location of the disease associated variants, we characterized in detail the structural variation at CFH and its paralogs, including two copy number polymorphisms (CNP), CNP147 and CNP148, and several rare deletions and duplications. Examination of 34 AMD-enriched extended families (N = 293) and AMD cases (White N = 4210 Indian = 134; Malay = 140) and controls (White N = 3229; Indian = 117; Malay = 2390) demonstrated that deletion CNP148 was protective against AMD, independent of SNPs at CFH. Regression analysis of seven common haplotypes showed three haplotypes, H1, H6 and H7, as conferring risk for AMD development. Being the most common haplotype H1 confers the greatest risk by increasing the odds of AMD by 2.75-fold (95% CI = [2.51, 3.01]; p = 8.31×10−109); Caucasian (H6) and Indian-specific (H7) recombinant haplotypes increase the odds of AMD by 1.85-fold (p = 3.52×10−9) and by 15.57-fold (P = 0.007), respectively. We identified a 32-kb region downstream of Y402H (rs1061170), shared by all three risk haplotypes, suggesting that this region may be critical for AMD development. Further analysis showed that two SNPs within the 32 kb block, rs1329428 and rs203687, optimally explain disease association. rs1329428 resides in 20 kb unique sequence block, but rs203687 resides in a 12 kb block that is 89% similar to a noncoding region contained in ΔCNP148. We conclude that causal variation in this region potentially encompasses both regulatory effects at single markers and copy number

Systematic Evaluation of Pleiotropy Identifies 6 Further Loci Associated With Coronary Artery Disease

Background: Genome-wide association studies have so far identified 56 loci associated with risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Many CAD loci show pleiotropy; that is, they are also associated with other diseases or traits. Objectives: This study sought to systematically test if genetic variants identified for non-CAD diseases/traits also associate with CAD and to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the extent of pleiotropy of all CAD loci. Methods: In discovery analyses involving 42,335 CAD cases and 78,240 control subjects we tested the association of 29,383 common (minor allele frequency >5%) single nucleotide polymorphisms available on the exome array, which included a substantial proportion of known or suspected single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with common diseases or traits as of 2011. Suggestive association signals were replicated in an additional 30,533 cases and 42,530 control subjects. To evaluate pleiotropy, we tested CAD loci for association with cardiovascular risk factors (lipid traits, blood pressure phenotypes, body mass index, diabetes, and smoking behavior), as well as with other diseases/traits through interrogation of currently available genome-wide association study catalogs. Results: We identified 6 new loci associated with CAD at genome-wide significance: on 2q37 (KCNJ13-GIGYF2), 6p21 (C2), 11p15 (MRVI1-CTR9), 12q13 (LRP1), 12q24 (SCARB1), and 16q13 (CETP). Risk allele frequencies ranged from 0.15 to 0.86, and odds ratio per copy of the risk allele ranged from 1.04 to 1.09. Of 62 new and known CAD loci, 24 (38.7%) showed statistical association with a traditional cardiovascular risk factor, with some showing multiple associations, and 29 (47%) showed associations at p < 1 × 10−4 with a range of other diseases/traits. Conclusions: We identified 6 loci associated with CAD at genome-wide significance. Several CAD loci show substantial pleiotropy, which may help us understand the mechanisms by which these loci affect CAD risk

Plasma and cellular fibronectin: distinct and independent functions during tissue repair

Fibronectin (FN) is a ubiquitous extracellular matrix (ECM) glycoprotein that plays vital roles during tissue repair. The plasma form of FN circulates in the blood, and upon tissue injury, is incorporated into fibrin clots to exert effects on platelet function and to mediate hemostasis. Cellular FN is then synthesized and assembled by cells as they migrate into the clot to reconstitute damaged tissue. The assembly of FN into a complex three-dimensional matrix during physiological repair plays a key role not only as a structural scaffold, but also as a regulator of cell function during this stage of tissue repair. FN fibrillogenesis is a complex, stepwise process that is strictly regulated by a multitude of factors. During fibrosis, there is excessive deposition of ECM, of which FN is one of the major components. Aberrant FN-matrix assembly is a major contributing factor to the switch from normal tissue repair to misregulated fibrosis. Understanding the mechanisms involved in FN assembly and how these interplay with cellular, fibrotic and immune responses may reveal targets for the future development of therapies to regulate aberrant tissue-repair processes

ICAR: endoscopic skull‐base surgery

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