Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England

BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR

Female Chimpanzees Use Copulation Calls Flexibly to Prevent Social Competition

The adaptive function of copulation calls in female primates has been debated for years. One influential idea is that copulation calls are a sexually selected trait, which enables females to advertise their receptive state to males. Male-male competition ensues and females benefit by getting better mating partners and higher quality offspring. We analysed the copulation calling behaviour of wild female chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) at Budongo Forest, Uganda, but found no support for the male-male competition hypothesis. Hormone analysis showed that the calling behaviour of copulating females was unrelated to their fertile period and likelihood of conception. Instead, females called significantly more while with high-ranking males, but suppressed their calls if high-ranking females were nearby. Copulation calling may therefore be one potential strategy employed by female chimpanzees to advertise receptivity to high-ranked males, confuse paternity and secure future support from these socially important individuals. Competition between females can be dangerously high in wild chimpanzees, and our results indicate that females use their copulation calls strategically to minimise the risks associated with such competition

Roaring high and low: composition and possible functions of the Iberian stag's vocal repertoire

We provide a detailed description of the rutting vocalisations of free-ranging male Iberian deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus, Hilzheimer 1909), a geographically isolated and morphologically differentiated subspecies of red deer Cervus elaphus. We combine spectrographic examinations, spectral analyses and automated classifications to identify different call types, and compare the composition of the vocal repertoire with that of other red deer subspecies. Iberian stags give bouts of roars (and more rarely, short series of barks) that are typically composed of two different types of calls. Long Common Roars are mostly given at the beginning or at the end of the bout, and are characterised by a high fundamental frequency (F0) resulting in poorly defined formant frequencies but a relatively high amplitude. In contrast, Short Common Roars are typically given in the middle or at the end of the bout, and are characterised by a lower F0 resulting in relatively well defined vocal tract resonances, but low amplitude. While we did not identify entirely Harsh Roars (as described in the Scottish red deer subspecies (Cervus elaphus scoticus), a small percentage of Long Common Roars contained segments of deterministic chaos. We suggest that the evolution of two clearly distinct types of Common Roars may reflect divergent selection pressures favouring either vocal efficiency in high pitched roars or the communication of body size in low-pitched, high spectral density roars highlighting vocal tract resonances. The clear divergence of the Iberian red deer vocal repertoire from those of other documented European red deer populations reinforces the status of this geographical variant as a distinct subspecies

Correlates of Obsessive–Compulsive Disorder in a Sample of HIV-Positive, Methamphetamine-using Men Who have Sex with Men

Substance use has been identified as a risk factor for elevated levels of obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD). This study examined methamphetamine use and sexual risk behaviors as correlates of OCD in a sample of 245 HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM) in San Diego, CA. In a logistic regression analysis, OCD was associated with greater frequency of methamphetamine use, more depressive symptoms, seeking out risky venues and risky sexual partners when “high” on methamphetamine, and reporting fewer sex acts in the past 2 months. These data suggest the need for increased awareness and understanding of the role that OCD may play in the drug use behaviors and risky sexual practices of methamphetamine users

Brief Online Self-help Exercises for Postnatal Women to Improve Mood: A Pilot Study

OBJECTIVES: Giving birth and adjusting to a new baby can be difficult and stressful for new mothers. Negative mood may occur during this time and can affect women, their parenting and the infant's development. This pilot study evaluated a brief online self-help intervention designed to promote positive mood in mothers of babies and toddlers. METHODS: Women in the UK who had given birth within the previous 18 months were randomly allocated to the online self-help intervention (n = 40) or active comparison group exercise (n = 40) which was matched for time and structure. Mood was measured before and after the intervention. Acceptability was examined at the end of the trial. RESULTS: The self-help intervention was acceptable to the majority of women and significantly increased positive mood compared to the comparison condition. This effect persisted after controlling for self-esteem, anxiety and depression. These results suggest that a simple self-help intervention focused on changing beliefs about oneself as a mother can have an immediate impact on women's mood. CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Further research is need to see whether these improvements continue long-term and what processes underlie these improvements

Affective Correlates of Stimulant Use and Adherence to Anti-retroviral Therapy Among HIV-positive Methamphetamine Users

The use of stimulants has important implications for HIV prevention and care. However, few investigations have examined psychological correlates of substance use and adherence to anti-retroviral therapy (ART) among HIV-positive stimulant users. This cross-sectional investigation examined affective correlates of stimulant use and ART adherence among HIV-positive methamphetamine users. In total, 122 HIV-positive men who have sex with men or transgendered individuals on ART who reported using methamphetamine in the past 30 days were recruited from the community. HIV-specific traumatic stress was consistently and independently associated with more frequent cocaine/crack use (but not with methamphetamine use). Positive affect was independently associated with a decreased likelihood of reporting any injection drug use and an increased likelihood of reporting perfect ART adherence. HIV-specific traumatic stress may be an important determinant of increased cocaine/crack use in this population. Positive affect may increase the likelihood that individuals will refrain from injection drug use and achieve high levels of ART adherence

Genetic Structure of Human A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 Influenza Virus on Corsica Island: Phylogenetic Analysis and Vaccine Strain Match, 2006–2010

Background: The aim of this study was to analyse the genetic patterns of Hemagglutinin (HA) genes of influenza A strains circulating on Corsica Island during the 2006-2009 epidemic seasons and the 2009-2010 pandemic season. [br/] Methods: Nasopharyngeal samples from 371 patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) were collected by General Practitioners (GPs) of the Sentinelles Network through a randomised selection routine. [br/] Results: Phylogenetic analysis of HA revealed that A/H3N2 strains circulating on Corsica were closely related to the WHO recommended vaccine strains in each analyzed season (2006-2007 to 2008-2009). Seasonal Corsican influenza A/H1N1 isolated during the 2007-2008 season had drifted towards the A/Brisbane/59/2007 lineage, the A/H1N1 vaccine strain for the 2008-2009 season. The A/H1N1 2009 (A/H1N1pdm) strains isolated on Corsica Island were characterized by the S220T mutation specific to clade 7 isolates. It should be noted that Corsican isolates formed a separate sub-clade of clade 7 as a consequence of the presence of the fixed substitution D222E. The percentages of the perfect match vaccine efficacy, estimated by using the p(epitope) model, against influenza viruses circulating on Corsica Island varied substantially across the four seasons analyzed, and tend to be highest for A/H1N1 compared with A/H3N2 vaccines, suggesting that cross-immunity seems to be stronger for the H1 HA gene. [br/] Conclusion: The molecular analysis of the HA gene of influenza viruses that circulated on Corsica Island between 2006-2010 showed for each season the presence of a dominant lineage characterized by at least one fixed mutation. The A/H3N2 and A/H1N1pdm isolates were characterized by multiples fixation at antigenic sites. The fixation of specific mutations at each outbreak could be explained by the combination of a neutral phenomenon and a founder effect, favoring the presence of a dominant lineage in a closed environment such as Corsica Island

Neutrophil depletion reduces edema formation and tissue loss following traumatic brain injury in mice

Background: Brain edema as a result of secondary injury following traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major clinical concern. Neutrophils are known to cause increased vascular permeability leading to edema formation in peripheral tissue, but their role in the pathology following TBI remains unclear. Methods: In this study we used controlled cortical impact (CCI) as a model for TBI and investigated the role of neutrophils in the response to injury. The outcome of mice that were depleted of neutrophils using an anti-Gr-1 antibody was compared to that in mice with intact neutrophil count. The effect of neutrophil depletion on blood-brain barrier function was assessed by Evan's blue dye extravasation, and analysis of brain water content was used as a measurement of brain edema formation (24 and 48 hours after CCI). Lesion volume was measured 7 and 14 days after CCI. Immunohistochemistry was used to assess cell death, using a marker for cleaved caspase-3 at 24 hours after injury, and microglial/macrophage activation 7 days after CCI. Data were analyzed using Mann-Whitney test for non-parametric data. Results: Neutrophil depletion did not significantly affect Evan's blue extravasation at any time-point after CCI. However, neutrophil-depleted mice exhibited a decreased water content both at 24 and 48 hours after CCI indicating reduced edema formation. Furthermore, brain tissue loss was attenuated in neutropenic mice at 7 and 14 days after injury. Additionally, these mice had a significantly reduced number of activated microglia/macrophages 7 days after CCI, and of cleaved caspase-3 positive cells 24 h after injury. Conclusion: Our results suggest that neutrophils are involved in the edema formation, but not the extravasation of large proteins, as well as contributing to cell death and tissue loss following TBI in mice

Social and Structural Factors Associated with HIV Infection among Female Sex Workers Who Inject Drugs in the Mexico-US Border Region

BACKGROUND: FSWs who inject drugs (FSW-IDUs) can acquire HIV through high risk sexual and injection behaviors. We studied correlates of HIV infection among FSW-IDUs in northern Mexico, where sex work is quasi-legal and syringes can be legally obtained without a prescription. METHODS: FSW-IDUs>18 years old who reported injecting drugs and recent unprotected sex with clients in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez underwent surveys and HIV/STI testing. Logistic regression identified correlates of HIV infection. RESULTS: Of 620 FSW-IDUs, prevalence of HIV, gonorrhea, Chlamydia, trichomonas, syphilis titers ≥1:8, or any of these infections was 5.3%, 4%, 13%, 35%, 10% and 72%, respectively. Compared to other FSW-IDUs, HIV-positive women were more likely to: have syphilis titers ≥1:8 (36% vs. 9%, p<0.001), often/always inject drugs with clients (55% vs. 32%, p = 0.01), and experience confiscation of syringes by police (49% vs. 28%, p = 0.02). Factors independently associated with HIV infection were syphilis titers ≥1:8, often/always injecting with clients and police confiscation of syringes. Women who obtained syringes from NEPs (needle exchange programs) within the last month had lower odds of HIV infection associated with active syphilis, but among non-NEP attenders, the odds of HIV infection associated with active syphilis was significantly elevated. CONCLUSIONS: Factors operating in both the micro-social environment (i.e., injecting drugs with clients) and policy environment (i.e., having syringes confiscated by police, attending NEPs) predominated as factors associated with risk of HIV infection, rather than individual-level risk behaviors. Interventions should target unjustified policing practices, clients' risk behaviors and HIV/STI prevention through NEPs