Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Psychological stress and other potential triggers for recurrences of herpes simplex virus eye infections

Objective To assess psychological stress and other factors as possible triggers of ocular herpes simplex virus (HSV) recurrences. Design A prospective cohort study nested in a randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial. Setting Fifty-eight community-based or university sites. Participants Immunocompetent adults (N = 308), aged 18 years or older, with a documented history of ocular HSV disease in the prior year and observed for up to 15 months. Exposure Variables Psychological stress, systemic infection, sunlight exposure, menstrual period, contact lens wear, and eye injury recorded on a weekly log. The exposure period was considered to be the week before symptomatic onset of a recurrence. Main Outcome Measure The first documented recurrence of ocular HSV disease, with exclusion of cases in which the exposure week log was completed late after the onset of symptoms. Results Thirty-three participants experienced a study outcome meeting these criteria. Higher levels of psychological stress were not associated with an increased risk of recurrence (rate ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-1.05; P = .07). No association was found between any of the other exposure variables and recurrence. When an analysis was performed including only the recurrences (n = 26) for which the exposure week log was completed late and after symptom onset, there was a clear indication of retrospective overreporting of high stress (P = .03) and systemic infection (P = .01). Not excluding these cases could have produced incorrect conclusions due to recall bias. Conclusions Psychological stress does not appear to be a trigger of recurrences of ocular HSV disease. If not accounted for, recall bias can substantially overestimate the importance of factors that do not have a causal association with HSV infection

Fusion measurements of 12C+12C at energies of astrophysical interest

The cross section of the 12C+12C fusion reaction at low energies is of paramount importance for models of stellar nucleosynthesis in different astrophysical scenarios, such as Type Ia supernovae and Xray superbursts, where this reaction is a primary route for the production of heavier elements. In a series of experiments performed at Argonne National Laboratory, using Gammasphere and an array of Silicon detectors, measurements of the fusion cross section of 12C+12C were successfully carried out with the γ and charged-particle coincidence technique in the center-of-mass energy range of 3-5 MeV. These were the first background-free fusion cross section measurements for 12C+12C at energies of astrophysical interest. Our results are consistent with previous measurements in the high-energy region; however, our lowest energy measurement indicates a fusion cross section slightly lower than those obtained with other techniques

How well do we understand the reaction rate of C burning?

Carbon burning plays a crucial role in stellar evolution, where this reaction is an important route for the production of heavier elements. A particle-γ coincidence technique that minimizes the backgrounds to which this reaction is subject and provides reliable cross sections has been used at the Argonne National Laboratory to measure fusion cross-sections at deep sub-barrier energies in the 12C+12C system. The corresponding excitation function has been extracted down to a cross section of about 6 nb. This indicates the existence of a broad S-factor maximum for this system. Experimental results are presented and discussed

Body appreciation around the world: Measurement invariance of the Body Appreciation Scale-2 (BAS-2) across 65 nations, 40 languages, gender identities, and age.

The Body Appreciation Scale-2 (BAS-2) is a widely used measure of a core facet of the positive body image construct. However, extant research concerning measurement invariance of the BAS-2 across a large number of nations remains limited. Here, we utilised the Body Image in Nature (BINS) dataset - with data collected between 2020 and 2022 - to assess measurement invariance of the BAS-2 across 65 nations, 40 languages, gender identities, and age groups. Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis indicated that full scalar invariance was upheld across all nations, languages, gender identities, and age groups, suggesting that the unidimensional BAS-2 model has widespread applicability. There were large differences across nations and languages in latent body appreciation, while differences across gender identities and age groups were negligible-to-small. Additionally, greater body appreciation was significantly associated with higher life satisfaction, being single (versus being married or in a committed relationship), and greater rurality (versus urbanicity). Across a subset of nations where nation-level data were available, greater body appreciation was also significantly associated with greater cultural distance from the United States and greater relative income inequality. These findings suggest that the BAS-2 likely captures a near-universal conceptualisation of the body appreciation construct, which should facilitate further cross-cultural research. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Search for heavy resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a Higgs boson in final states with leptons and b-jets in 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This article presents a search for new resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a 125 GeV Higgs boson h, and it targets the νν¯¯¯bb¯¯, ℓ+ℓ−bb¯¯, or ℓ±νbb¯¯ final states, where ℓ = e or μ, in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV. The data used correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC at CERN. The search is conducted by examining the reconstructed invariant or transverse mass distributions of Zh or Wh candidates for evidence of a localised excess in the mass range from 220 GeV to 5 TeV. No significant excess is observed and 95% confidence-level upper limits between 1.3 pb and 0.3 fb are placed on the production cross section times branching fraction of neutral and charged spin-1 resonances and CP-odd scalar bosons. These limits are converted into constraints on the parameter space of the Heavy Vector Triplet model and the two-Higgs-doublet model

Inclusive-photon production and its dependence on photon isolation in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV using 139 fb−1 of ATLAS data

Measurements of differential cross sections are presented for inclusive isolated-photon production in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV provided by the LHC and using 139 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment. The cross sections are measured as functions of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The photons are required to be isolated by means of a fixed-cone method with two different cone radii. The dependence of the inclusive-photon production on the photon isolation is investigated by measuring the fiducial cross sections as functions of the isolation-cone radius and the ratios of the differential cross sections with different radii in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The results presented in this paper constitute an improvement with respect to those published by ATLAS earlier: the measurements are provided for different isolation radii and with a more granular segmentation in photon pseudorapidity that can be exploited in improving the determination of the proton parton distribution functions. These improvements provide a more in-depth test of the theoretical predictions. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from JETPHOX and SHERPA and next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from NNLOJET are compared to the measurements, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The measured cross sections are well described by the fixed-order QCD predictions within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in most of the investigated phase-space region

Measurements of Zγ+jets differential cross sections in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Differential cross-section measurements of Zγ production in association with hadronic jets are presented, using the full 139 fb−1 dataset of s√ = 13 TeV proton–proton collisions collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC. Distributions are measured using events in which the Z boson decays leptonically and the photon is usually radiated from an initial-state quark. Measurements are made in both one and two observables, including those sensitive to the hard scattering in the event and others which probe additional soft and collinear radiation. Different Standard Model predictions, from both parton-shower Monte Carlo simulation and fixed-order QCD calculations, are compared with the measurements. In general, good agreement is observed between data and predictions from MATRIX and MiNNLOPS, as well as next-to-leading-order predictions from MADGRAPH5_AMC@NLO and SHERPA

Search for lepton-favour violation in high-mass dilepton final states using 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is performed for a heavy particle decaying into different-flavour, dilepton final states, using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV collected in 2015–2018 by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Final states with electrons, muons and hadronically decaying tau leptons are considered (eμ, eτ or μτ). No significant excess over the Standard Model predictions is observed. Upper limits on the production cross-section are set as a function of the mass of a Z′ boson, a supersymmetric τ-sneutrino, and a quantum black-hole. The observed 95% CL lower mass limits obtained on a typical benchmark model Z′ boson are 5.0 TeV (eμ), 4.0 TeV (eτ), and 3.9 TeV (μτ), respectively

Measurement of electroweak Z(νν) γjj production and limits on anomalous quartic gauge couplings in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The electroweak production of Z(νν¯¯¯)γ in association with two jets is studied in a regime with a photon of high transverse momentum above 150 GeV using proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis uses a data sample with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector during the 2015–2018 LHC data-taking period. This process is an important probe of the electroweak symmetry breaking mechanism in the Standard Model and is sensitive to quartic gauge boson couplings via vector-boson scattering. The fiducial Z(νν¯¯¯)γjj cross section for electroweak production is measured to be 0.77+0.34−0.30 fb and is consistent with the Standard Model prediction. Evidence of electroweak Z(νν¯¯¯)γjj production is found with an observed significance of 3.2σ for the background-only hypothesis, compared with an expected significance of 3.7σ. The combination of this result with the previously published ATLAS observation of electroweak Z(νν¯¯¯)γjj production yields an observed (expected) signal significance of 6.3σ (6.6σ). Limits on anomalous quartic gauge boson couplings are obtained in the framework of effective field theory with dimension-8 operators