Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction

Historical tropical cyclone (TC) and storm surge records are often too limited to quantify the risk to local populations. Paleohurricane sediment records uncover long-term TC activity, but interpreting these records can be difficult and can introduce significant uncertainties. Here we compare and combine climatological-hydrodynamic modeling (including a method to account for storm size uncertainty), historical observations, and paleohurricane records to investigate local surge risk, using Apalachee Bay in northwest Florida as an example. The modeling reveals relatively high risk, with 100 year, 500 year, and “worst case” surges estimated to be about 6.3 m, 8.3 m, and 11.3 m, respectively, at Bald Point (a paleorecord site) and about 7.4 m, 9.7 m, and 13.3 m, respectively, at St. Marks (the head of the Bay), supporting the inference from paleorecords that Apalachee Bay has frequently suffered severe inundation for thousands of years. Both the synthetic database and paleorecords contain a much higher frequency of extreme events than the historical record; the mean return period of surges greater than 5 m is about 40 years based on synthetic modeling and paleoreconstruction, whereas it is about 400 years based on historical storm analysis. Apalachee Bay surge risk is determined by storms of broad characteristics, varies spatially over the area, and is affected by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, all of which are important features to consider when accessing the risk and interpreting paleohurricane records. In particular, neglecting size uncertainty may induce great underestimation in surge risk, as the size distribution is positively skewed. While the most extreme surges were generated by the uppermost storm intensities, medium intensity storms (categories 1–3) can produce large to extreme surges, due to their larger inner core sizes. For Apalachee Bay, the storms that induced localized barrier breaching and limited sediment transport (overwash regime; surge between 3 and 5 m) are most likely to be category 2 or 3 storms, and the storms that inundated the entire barrier and deposited significantly more coarse materials (inundation regime; surge > 5 m) are most likely to be category 3 or 4 storms.United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant NA11OAR4310101)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant OCE-0903020)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant OCE-1250506

Soluble TREM2 in CSF and its association with other biomarkers and cognition in autosomal-dominant Alzheimer's disease: a longitudinal observational study

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic modulation of TREM2-dependent microglial function might provide an additional strategy to slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease. Although studies in animal models suggest that TREM2 is protective against Alzheimer's pathology, its effect on tau pathology and its potential beneficial role in people with Alzheimer's disease is still unclear. Our aim was to study associations between the dynamics of soluble TREM2, as a biomarker of TREM2 signalling, and amyloid β (Aβ) deposition, tau-related pathology, neuroimaging markers, and cognitive decline, during the progression of autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: We did a longitudinal analysis of data from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN) observational study, which includes families with a history of autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease. Participants aged over 18 years who were enrolled in DIAN between Jan 1, 2009, and July 31, 2019, were categorised as either carriers of pathogenic variants in PSEN1, PSEN2, and APP genes (n=155) or non-carriers (n=93). We measured amounts of cleaved soluble TREM2 using a novel immunoassay in CSF samples obtained every 2 years from participants who were asymptomatic (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR]=0) and annually for those who were symptomatic (CDR>0). CSF concentrations of Aβ40, Aβ42, total tau (t-tau), and tau phosphorylated on threonine 181 (p-tau) were measured by validated immunoassays. Predefined neuroimaging measurements were total cortical uptake of Pittsburgh compound B PET (PiB-PET), cortical thickness in the precuneus ascertained by MRI, and hippocampal volume determined by MRI. Cognition was measured using a validated cognitive composite (including DIAN word list test, logical memory delayed recall, digit symbol coding test [total score], and minimental status examination). We based our statistical analysis on univariate and bivariate linear mixed effects models. FINDINGS: In carriers of pathogenic variants, a high amyloid burden at baseline, represented by low CSF Aβ42 (β=–4·28 × 10^{–2} [SE 0·013], p=0·0012), but not high cortical uptake in PiB-PET (β=–5·51 × 10^{–3} [0·011], p=0·63), was the only predictor of an augmented annual rate of subsequent increase in soluble TREM2. Augmented annual rates of increase in soluble TREM2 were associated with a diminished rate of decrease in amyloid deposition, as measured by Aβ42 in CSF (r=0·56 [0·22], p=0·011), in presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants, and with diminished annual rate of increase in PiB-PET (r=–0·67 [0·25], p=0·0060) in symptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants. Presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants with annual rates of increase in soluble TREM2 lower than the median showed a correlation between enhanced annual rates of increase in p-tau in CSF and augmented annual rates of increase in PiB-PET signal (r=0·45 [0·21], p=0·035), that was not observed in those with rates of increase in soluble TREM2 higher than the median. Furthermore, presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants with rates of increase in soluble TREM2 above or below the median had opposite associations between Aβ42 in CSF and PiB-PET uptake when assessed longitudinally. Augmented annual rates of increase in soluble TREM2 in presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants correlated with decreased cortical shrinkage in the precuneus (r=0·46 [0·22]), p=0·040) and diminished cognitive decline (r=0·67 [0·22], p=0·0020). INTERPRETATION: Our findings in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease position the TREM2 response within the amyloid cascade immediately after the first pathological changes in Aβ aggregation and further support the role of TREM2 on Aβ plaque deposition and compaction. Furthermore, these findings underpin a beneficial effect of TREM2 on Aβ deposition, Aβ-dependent tau pathology, cortical shrinkage, and cognitive decline. Soluble TREM2 could, therefore, be a key marker for clinical trial design and interpretation. Efforts to develop TREM2-boosting therapies are ongoing

Amyloid and Tau Pathology Associations With Personality Traits, Neuropsychiatric Symptoms, and Cognitive Lifestyle in the Preclinical Phases of Sporadic and Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer's Disease

Background: Major prevention trials for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are now focusing on multidomain lifestyle interventions. However, the exact combination of behavioral factors related to AD pathology remains unclear. In 2 cohorts of cognitively unimpaired individuals at risk of AD, we examined which combinations of personality traits, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and cognitive lifestyle (years of education or lifetime cognitive activity) related to the pathological hallmarks of AD, amyloid-β, and tau deposits. Methods: A total of 115 older adults with a parental or multiple-sibling family history of sporadic AD (PREVENT-AD [PRe-symptomatic EValuation of Experimental or Novel Treatments for AD] cohort) underwent amyloid and tau positron emission tomography and answered several questionnaires related to behavioral attributes. Separately, we studied 117 mutation carriers from the DIAN (Dominant Inherited Alzheimer Network) study group cohort with amyloid positron emission tomography and behavioral data. Using partial least squares analysis, we identified latent variables relating amyloid or tau pathology with combinations of personality traits, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and cognitive lifestyle. Results: In PREVENT-AD, lower neuroticism, neuropsychiatric burden, and higher education were associated with less amyloid deposition (p = .014). Lower neuroticism and neuropsychiatric features, along with higher measures of openness and extraversion, were related to less tau deposition (p = .006). In DIAN, lower neuropsychiatric burden and higher education were also associated with less amyloid (p = .005). The combination of these factors accounted for up to 14% of AD pathology. Conclusions: In the preclinical phase of both sporadic and autosomal dominant AD, multiple behavioral features were associated with AD pathology. These results may suggest potential pathways by which multidomain interventions might help delay AD onset or progression

Amyloid and tau pathology associations with personality traits, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and cognitive lifestyle in the preclinical phases of sporadic and autosomal dominant Alzheimer’s disease

Background Major prevention trials for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are now focusing on multidomain lifestyle interventions. However, the exact combination of behavioral factors related to AD pathology remains unclear. In 2 cohorts of cognitively unimpaired individuals at risk of AD, we examined which combinations of personality traits, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and cognitive lifestyle (years of education or lifetime cognitive activity) related to the pathological hallmarks of AD, amyloid-β, and tau deposits. Methods A total of 115 older adults with a parental or multiple-sibling family history of sporadic AD (PREVENT-AD [PRe-symptomatic EValuation of Experimental or Novel Treatments for AD] cohort) underwent amyloid and tau positron emission tomography and answered several questionnaires related to behavioral attributes. Separately, we studied 117 mutation carriers from the DIAN (Dominant Inherited Alzheimer Network) study group cohort with amyloid positron emission tomography and behavioral data. Using partial least squares analysis, we identified latent variables relating amyloid or tau pathology with combinations of personality traits, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and cognitive lifestyle. Results In PREVENT-AD, lower neuroticism, neuropsychiatric burden, and higher education were associated with less amyloid deposition (p = .014). Lower neuroticism and neuropsychiatric features, along with higher measures of openness and extraversion, were related to less tau deposition (p = .006). In DIAN, lower neuropsychiatric burden and higher education were also associated with less amyloid (p = .005). The combination of these factors accounted for up to 14% of AD pathology. Conclusions In the preclinical phase of both sporadic and autosomal dominant AD, multiple behavioral features were associated with AD pathology. These results may suggest potential pathways by which multidomain interventions might help delay AD onset or progression

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder