Evaluating a transfer gradient assumption in a fomite-mediated microbial transmission model using an experimental and Bayesian approach

Current microbial exposure models assume that microbial exchange follows a concentration gradient during hand-to-surface contacts. Our objectives were to evaluate this assumption using transfer efficiency experiments and to evaluate a model's ability to explain concentration changes using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) on these experimental data. Experiments were conducted with two phages (MS2, ΦX174) simultaneously to study bidirectional transfer. Concentrations on the fingertip and surface were quantified before and after fingertip-to-surface contacts. Prior distributions for surface and fingertip swabbing efficiencies and transfer efficiency were used to estimate concentrations on the fingertip and surface post contact. To inform posterior distributions, Euclidean distances were calculated for predicted detectable concentrations (log10 PFU cm−2) on the fingertip and surface post contact in comparison with experimental values. To demonstrate the usefulness of posterior distributions in calibrated model applications, posterior transfer efficiencies were used to estimate rotavirus infection risks for a fingertip-to-surface and subsequent fingertip-to-mouth contact. Experimental findings supported the transfer gradient assumption. Through ABC, the model explained concentration changes more consistently when concentrations on the fingertip and surface were similar. Future studies evaluating microbial transfer should consider accounting for differing fingertip-to-surface and surface-to-fingertip transfer efficiencies and extend this work for other microbial types

Cancer risk management strategies and perceptions of unaffected women 5 years after predictive genetic testing for BRCA1/2 mutations

In a French national cohort of unaffected females carriers/non-carriers of a BRCA1/2 mutation, long-term preventive strategies and breast/ovarian cancer risk perceptions were followed up to 5 years after test result disclosure, using self-administered questionnaires. Response rate was 74%. Carriers (N=101) were younger (average age±SD=37±10) than non-carriers (N=145; 42±12). There were four management strategies that comprised 88% of the decisions made by the unaffected carriers: 50% opted for breast surveillance alone, based on either magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and other imaging (31%) or mammography alone (19%); 38% opted for either risk reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) and breast surveillance, based on MRI and other imaging (28%) or mammography alone (10%). The other three strategies were: risk reducing mastectomy (RRM) and RRSO (5%), RRM alone (2%) and neither RRM/RRSO nor surveillance (6%). The results obtained for various age groups are presented here. Non-carriers often opted for screening despite their low cancer risk. Result disclosure increased carriers' short-term high breast/ovarian cancer risk perceptions (P⩽0.02) and decreased non-carriers' short- and long-term perceptions (P<0.001). During follow-up, high breast cancer risk perceptions increased with time among those who had no RRM and decreased in the opposite case; high ovarian cancer risk perceptions increased further with time among those who had no RRSO and decreased in the opposite case; RRSO did not affect breast cancer risk perceptions. Informed decision-making involves letting women know whether opting for RRSO and breast MRI surveillance is as effective in terms of survival as RRM and RRSO

Digital multiplex ligation assay for highly multiplexed screening of beta-lactamase-encoding genes in bacterial isolates

Increasing incidence of antibiotic resistance in clinical and environmental settings calls for increased scalability in their surveillance. Current screening technologies are limited by the number of samples and genes that can easily be screened. We demonstrate here digital multiplex ligation assay (dMLA) as a low-cost targeted genomic detection workflow capable of highly-parallel screening of bacterial isolates for multiple target gene regions simultaneously. Here, dMLA is used for simultaneous detection of 1187 beta-lactamase-encoding genes, including extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) genes, in 74 bacterial isolates. We demonstrate dMLA as a light-weight and cost-efficient workflow which provides a highly scalable tool for antimicrobial resistance surveillance and is also adaptable to genetic screening applications beyond antibiotic resistance.Tamminen et al. develop a digital multiplex ligation assay (dMLA) that enables the detection of bacterial isolates using probe hybridization and ligation-based assays with next-generation sequencing. Their method can be applied in high-throughput and affordable screening for antibiotic resistance

Complex hybrid origin of genetic caste determination in harvester ants

Caste differentiation and division of labour are the hallmarks of insect societies and at the root of their ecological success. Kin selection predicts that caste determination should result from environmentally induced differences in gene expression, a prediction largely supported by empirical data. However, two exceptional cases of genetically determined caste differentiation have recently been found in harvester ants. Here we show that genetic caste determination evolved in these populations after complex hybridization events. We identified four distinct genetic lineages, each consisting of unique blends of the genomes of the parental species, presumably Pogonomyrmex barbatus and P. rugosus. Crosses between lineages H1 and H2 and between J1 and J2 give rise to workers, whereas queens develop from within-lineage matings. Although historical gene flow is evident, genetic exchange among lineages and between lineages and the parental species no longer occurs. This unusual system of caste determination seems to be evolutionarily stable

Automated Analysis of Cryptococcal Macrophage Parasitism Using GFP-Tagged Cryptococci

The human fungal pathogens Cryptococcus neoformans and C. gattii cause life-threatening infections of the central nervous system. One of the major characteristics of cryptococcal disease is the ability of the pathogen to parasitise upon phagocytic immune effector cells, a phenomenon that correlates strongly with virulence in rodent models of infection. Despite the importance of phagocyte/Cryptococcus interactions to disease progression, current methods for assaying virulence in the acrophage system are both time consuming and low throughput. Here, we introduce the first stable and fully characterised GFP–expressing derivatives of two widely used cryptococcal strains: C. neoformans serotype A type strain H99 and C. gattii serotype B type strain R265. Both strains show unaltered responses to environmental and host stress conditions and no deficiency in virulence in the macrophage model system. In addition, we report the development of a method to effectively and rapidly investigate macrophage parasitism by flow cytometry, a technique that preserves the accuracy of current approaches but offers a four-fold improvement in speed

Fifteen-Year Population Attributable Fractions and Causal Pies of Risk Factors for Newly Developed Hepatocellular Carcinomas in 11,801 Men in Taiwan

Development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a multi-factorial process. Chronic infections with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are important risk factors of HCC. Host factors, such as alcohol drinking, may also play a role. This study aims to provide a synthesis view on the development of HCC by examining multiple risk factors jointly and collectively. Causal-pie modeling technique was applied to analyze a cohort of 11,801 male residents (followed up for 15 years) in Taiwan, during which a total of 298 incident HCC cases were ascertained. The rate ratios adjusted by age were further modeled by an additive Poisson regression. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) and causal-pie weights (CPWs) were calculated. A PAF indicates the magnitude of case-load reduction under a particular intervention scenario, whereas a CPW for a particular class of causal pies represents the proportion of HCC cases attributable to that class. Using PAF we observed a chance to reduce around 60% HCC risk moving from no HBV-related intervention to the total elimination of the virus. An additional ∼15% (or ∼5%) reduction can be expected, if the HBV-related intervention is coupled with an HCV-related intervention (or an anti-drinking campaign). Eight classes of causal pies were found to be significant, including four dose-response classes of HBV (total CPW=52.7%), one independent-effect class of HCV (CPW=14.4%), one HBV-alcohol interaction class (CPW=4.2%), one HBV-HCV interaction class (CPW=1.7%), and one all-unknown class (CPW=27.0%). Causal-pie modeling for HCC helps clarify the relative importance of each viral and host factor, as well as their interactions

Association between XPF Polymorphisms and Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group F (XPF or ERCC4) plays a key role in DNA repair that protects against genetic instability and carcinogenesis. A series of epidemiological studies have examined associations between XPF polymorphisms and cancer risk, but the findings remain inconclusive. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this meta-analysis of 47,639 cancer cases and 51,915 controls, by searching three electronic databases (i.e., MEDLINE, EMBASE and CNKI), we summarized 43 case-control studies from 29 publications on four commonly studied polymorphisms of XPF (i.e., rs1800067, rs1799801, rs2020955 and rs744154), and we did not find statistical evidence of any significant association with overall cancer risk. However, in stratification analyses, we found a significant association of XPF-rs1799801 with a reduced cancer risk in Caucasian populations (4,845 cases and 5,556 controls; recessive model: OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.76–1.00, P = 0.049, P = 0.723 for heterogeneity test, I2 = 0). Further genotype-phenotype correlation analysis showed that the homozygous variant CC genotype carriers had higher XPF expression levels than that of the TT genotype carriers (Student’s t test for a recessive model: P = 0.046). No publication bias was found by using the funnel plot and Egger’s test. Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests a lack of statistical evidence for the association between the four XPF SNPs and overall risk of cancers. However, XPF-rs1799801 may be associated with cancer risk in Caucasian populations, which needs to be further validated in single large, well-designed prospective studies

Prioritizing Risks and Uncertainties from Intentional Release of Selected Category A Pathogens

This paper synthesizes available information on five Category A pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, Variola major and Lassa) to develop quantitative guidelines for how environmental pathogen concentrations may be related to human health risk in an indoor environment. An integrated model of environmental transport and human health exposure to biological pathogens is constructed which 1) includes the effects of environmental attenuation, 2) considers fomite contact exposure as well as inhalational exposure, and 3) includes an uncertainty analysis to identify key input uncertainties, which may inform future research directions. The findings provide a framework for developing the many different environmental standards that are needed for making risk-informed response decisions, such as when prophylactic antibiotics should be distributed, and whether or not a contaminated area should be cleaned up. The approach is based on the assumption of uniform mixing in environmental compartments and is thus applicable to areas sufficiently removed in time and space from the initial release that mixing has produced relatively uniform concentrations. Results indicate that when pathogens are released into the air, risk from inhalation is the main component of the overall risk, while risk from ingestion (dermal contact for B. anthracis) is the main component of the overall risk when pathogens are present on surfaces. Concentrations sampled from untracked floor, walls and the filter of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system are proposed as indicators of previous exposure risk, while samples taken from touched surfaces are proposed as indicators of future risk if the building is reoccupied. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is conducted and input-output correlations used to identify important parameter uncertainties. An approach is proposed for integrating these quantitative assessments of parameter uncertainty with broader, qualitative considerations to identify future research priorities

Public Versus Private: Does It Matter for Water Conservation? Insights from California

This article asks three connected questions: First, does the public view private and public utilities differently, and if so, does this affect attitudes to conservation? Second, do public and private utilities differ in their approaches to conservation? Finally, do differences in the approaches of the utilities, if any, relate to differences in public attitudes? We survey public attitudes in California toward (hypothetical but plausible) voluntary and mandated water conservation, as well as to price increases, during a recent period of shortage. We do this by interviewing households in three pairs of adjacent public and private utilities. We also survey managers of public and private urban water utilities to see if they differ in their approaches to conservation and to their customers. On the user side we do not find pronounced differences, though a minority of customers in all private companies would be more willing to conserve or pay higher prices under a public operator. No respondent in public utility said the reverse. Negative attitudes toward private operators were most pronounced in the pair marked by a controversial recent privatization and a price hike. Nonetheless, we find that California’s history of recurrent droughts and the visible role of the state in water supply and drought management undermine the distinction between public and private. Private utilities themselves work to underplay the distinction by stressing the collective ownership of the water source and the collective value of conservation. Overall, California’s public utilities appear more proactive and target-oriented in asking their customers to conserve than their private counterparts and the state continues to be important in legitimating and guiding conservation behavior, whether the utility is in public hands or private

Herbivory, Connectivity, and Ecosystem Resilience: Response of a Coral Reef to a Large-Scale Perturbation

Coral reefs world-wide are threatened by escalating local and global impacts, and some impacted reefs have shifted from coral dominance to a state dominated by macroalgae. Therefore, there is a growing need to understand the processes that affect the capacity of these ecosystems to return to coral dominance following disturbances, including those that prevent the establishment of persistent stands of macroalgae. Unlike many reefs in the Caribbean, over the last several decades, reefs around the Indo-Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia have consistently returned to coral dominance following major perturbations without shifting to a macroalgae-dominated state. Here, we present evidence of a rapid increase in populations of herbivorous fishes following the most recent perturbation, and show that grazing by these herbivores has prevented the establishment of macroalgae following near complete loss of coral on offshore reefs. Importantly, we found the positive response of herbivorous fishes to increased benthic primary productivity associated with coral loss was driven largely by parrotfishes that initially recruit to stable nursery habitat within the lagoons before moving to offshore reefs later in life. These results underscore the importance of connectivity between the lagoon and offshore reefs for preventing the establishment of macroalgae following disturbances, and indicate that protecting nearshore nursery habitat of herbivorous fishes is critical for maintaining reef resilience