Water Isotopes in Precipitation: Data/Model Comparison for Present-Day and Past Climates

Variations of HDO and H2O-18 concentrations are observed in precipitation both on a geographical and on a temporal basis. These variations, resulting from successive isotopic fractionation processes at each phase change of water during its atmospheric cycle, are well documented through the IAEA/WMO network and other sources. Isotope concentrations are, in middle and high latitudes, linearly related to the annual mean temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship to infer paleotemperatures from isotope paleodata extractable from ice cores, deep groundwater and other such sources. For this application to be valid, however, the spatial relationship must also hold in time at a given location as the location undergoes a series of climatic changes. Progress in water isotope modeling aimed at examining and evaluating this assumption has been recently reviewed with a focus on polar regions and, more specifically, on Greenland. This article was largely based on the results obtained using the isotopic version of the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. We extend this review in comparing the results of two different isotopic AGCMs (NASA/GISS and ECHAM) and in examining, with a more global perspective, the validity of the above assumption, i.e. the equivalence of the spatial and temporal isotope-temperature relationship. We also examine recent progress made in modeling the relationship between the conditions prevailing in moisture source regions for precipitation and the deuterium-excess of that precipitation

Reply to Comment on "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate"

In our analysis [Rahmstorf et al., 2004], we arrived at two main conclusions: the data of Shaviv and Veizer [2003] do not show a significant correlation of cosmic ray flux (CRF) and climate, and the authors' estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2 based on a simple regression analysis is questionable. After careful consideration of Shaviv and Veizer's comment, we want to uphold and reaffirm these conclusions. Concerning the question of correlation, we pointed out that a correlation arose only after several adjustments to the data, including shifting one of the four CRF peaks and stretching the time scale. To calculate statistical significance, we first need to compute the number of independent data points in the CRF and temperature curves being correlated, accounting for their autocorrelation. A standard estimate [Quenouille, 1952] of the number of effective data points is urn:x-wiley:00963941:media:eost14930:eost14930-math-0001 where N is the total number of data points and r1, r2 are the autocorrelations of the two series. For the curves of Shaviv and Veizer [2003], the result is NEFF = 4.8. This is consistent with the fact that these are smooth curves with four humps, and with the fact that for CRF the position of the four peaks is determined by four spiral arm crossings or four meteorite clusters, respectively; that is, by four independent data points. The number of points that enter the calculation of statistical significance of a linear correlation is (NEFF− 2), since any curves based on only two points show perfect correlation; at least three independent points are needed for a meaningful result

Direct north-south synchronization of abrupt climate change record in ice cores using Beryllium 10

A new, decadally resolved record of the <sup>10</sup>Be peak at 41 kyr from the EPICA Dome C ice core (Antarctica) is used to match it with the same peak in the GRIP ice core (Greenland). This permits a direct synchronisation of the climatic variations around this time period, independent of uncertainties related to the ice age-gas age difference in ice cores. Dansgaard-Oeschger event 10 is in the period of best synchronisation and is found to be coeval with an Antarctic temperature maximum. Simulations using a thermal bipolar seesaw model agree reasonably well with the observed relative climate chronology in these two cores. They also reproduce three Antarctic warming events observed between A1 and A2

The Origin of Antarctic Precipitation: A Modeling Approach

Isotope concentrations in polar ice cores have long been used to estimate paleotemperatures. Underlying the use of this "isotope paleothermometer" is the assumption that the relationship between surface temperature and isotope concentration over time at a single geographical point is the same as that observed over space during the present-day climate. The validity of this assumption may in fact be compromised by several factors related to climate change. The specific factor studied in this paper involves the evaporative sources for polar precipitation. Climatic changes in the relative strengths of these sources would imply a need for a recalibration of the paleothermometer. To quantify such changes, we performed two GCM simulations, one of present-day climate and the other of the climate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), roughly 18000 years ago. Evaporative sources of Antarctic precipitation were established using special tracer diagnostics. Results suggest that polar precipitation during the LGM does indeed consist of (relatively) more water from tropical oceans, a direct reflection of the LGM's increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient and its increased sea ice extent, which reduces high latitude evaporation. This result implies that an uncalibrated ice core paleothermometer would produce LGM temperatures that are biased slightly low. Because LGM boundary conditions are still under debate, we performed a third GCM simulation using a modified set of LGM boundary conditions. Using this simulation gives some qualitatively similar results, though the tropical contribution is not quite as high. Uncertainties in the LGM boundary conditions does hamper success in calibrating the paleothermometer

Oxygen isotope/salinity relationship in the Northern Indian Ocean

International audienceWe analyze the surface •5•80-salinity relationships of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, in the northern Indian Ocean, known for their contrasting hydrological conditions. New measurements of these tracers show a very low •5•80-salinity slope associated with the strong dilution in the Bay of Bengal, but a slope more typical of this latitude in the Arabian Sea. Although this region is marked by a complex monsoonal regime, numerical modeling using a box model and a general circulation model is able to capture the •5•SO-salinity slope and its geographical variation. Both models clearly show that the low •5•SO-salinity slope is due to the evaporation-minus-precipitation balance, with an important contribution of the continental runoff in the Bay of Bengal. Although the low value of these slopes (-0.25) makes past salinity reconstructions uncertain, insight into the Last Glacial Maximum conditions shows a probable stability of these slopes and limited error on paleosalinity

Paleoclimatic Variability Inferred from the Spectral Analysis of Greenland and Antarctic Ice-Core Data

Paleoclimate variations occur at various time scales, between a few centuries for the Heinrich events and several hundreds of millenia for the glacial to interglacial variations. The recent ice cores from Greenland (Greenland Ice Core Project and Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) and Antarctica (Vostok) span at least one glacial oscillation and provide many opportunities to investigate climate variations with a very fine resolution. The joint study of cores from both hemispheres allows us to distinguish between the sources of variability and helps to propose mechanisms of variations for the different time scales involved. The climate proxies we analyze are inferred from δ18O and δD for temperature and chemical species (such as calcium) for the joint behavior of the major ions in the atmosphere, which yield an estimate of the polar circulation index. Those data provide time series of climatic variables from which we extract the information on the dynamics of the underlying system. We used several independent spectral analysis techniques, to reduce the possibility of spurious results. Those methods encompass the multitaper spectral analysis, singular-spectrum analysis, maximum entropy method, principal component analysis, minimum bias spectral estimates, and digital filter reconstructions. Our results show some differences between the two hemispheres in the slow variability associated with the astronomical forcing. Common features found in the three ice-core records occur on shorter periods, between 1 and 7 kyr. The Holocene also shows recurrent common patterns between Greenland and Antarctica. We propose and discuss mechanisms to explain such behavior

Anatomy of a Dansgaard-Oeschger warming transition: High-resolution analysis of the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core

Large and abrupt temperature oscillations during the last glacial period, known as Dansgaard‐Oeschger (DO) events, are clearly observed in the Greenland ice core record. Here we present a new high‐resolution chemical (2 mm) and stable isotope (20 mm) record from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core at the onset of one of the most prominent DO events of the last glacial, DO‐8, observed ∼38,000 years ago. The unique, subannual‐resolution NGRIP record provides a true sequence of change during a DO warming with detailed annual layer counting of very high depth resolution geochemical measurements used to determine the exact duration of the transition. The continental ions, indicative of long‐range atmospheric loading and dustiness from East Asia, are the first to change, followed by the snow accumulation, the moisture source conditions, and finally the atmospheric temperature in Greenland. The sequence of events shows that atmospheric and oceanic source and circulation changes preceded the DO warming by several years

Summer Temperature Trend Over the Past Two Millennia Using Air Content in Himalayan Ice

Two Himalayan ice cores display a factor-two decreasing trend of air content over the past two millennia, in contrast to the relatively stable values in Greenland and Antarctica ice cores over the same period. Because the air content can be related with the relative frequency and intensity of melt phenomena, its variations along the Himalayan ice cores provide an indication of summer temperature trend. Our reconstruction point toward an unprecedented warming trend in the 20th century but does not depict the usual trends associated with Medieval Warm Period (MWP), or Little Ice Age (LIA)

Ice core age dating and paleothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica)

An interpretation of the deuterium profile measured along the Vostok (East ANtarctica) ice core down to 2755 m has been attempted on the basis of the borehole temperature analysis. An inverse problem is solved to infer a local 'geophysical metronome,' the orbital signal in the surface temperature oscillations expressed as a sum of harmonics of Milankovich periods. By correlating the smoothed isotopic temperature record to the metronome, a chronostratigraphy of the Vostok ice core is derived with an accuracy of ±3.0-4.5 kyr. The developed timescale predicts an age of 241 kyr at a depth of 2760 m. The ratio δD/δTi between deuterium content and cloud temperature fluctuations (at the top of the inversion layer) is examined by fitting simulated and measured borehole temperature profiles. The conventional estimate of the deuterium-temperature slope corresponding to the present-day spatial ratio (9 per mil/°C) is confirmed in general. However, the mismatch between modeled and easured borehole temperatures decreases noticeably if we allow surface temperature, responsible for the thermal state of the ice sheet, to undergo more intensive precession oscillations than those of the inversion temperature traced by isotope record. With this assumption, we obtain the long-term temporal deuterium-temperature slope to be 5.8-6.5 per il/°C which implies that the glacial-interglacial temperature increase over central Antarctica was about 15°C in the surface temperature and 10°C in the inversion temperature. Past variations of the accumulation rate and the corresponding changes in the ice-sheet surface elevation are simultaneously simulated

Developing a western Siberia reference site for tropospheric water vapour isotopologue observations obtained by different techniques (in situ and remote sensing)

Water stable isotopologues provide integrated tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, affected by changes in air mass origin, non-convective and convective processes and continental recycling. Novel remote sensing and in situ measuring techniques have recently offered opportunities for monitoring atmospheric water vapour isotopic composition. Recently developed infrared laser spectrometers allow for continuous in situ measurements of surface water vapour δD_v and δ¹⁸O_v. So far, very few intercomparisons of measurements conducted using different techniques have been achieved at a given location, due to difficulties intrinsic to the comparison of integrated with local measurements. Nudged simulations conducted with high-resolution isotopically enabled general circulation models (GCMs) provide a consistent framework for comparison with the different types of observations. Here, we compare simulations conducted with the ECHAM5-wiso model with two types of water vapour isotopic data obtained during summer 2012 at the forest site of Kourovka, western Siberia: hourly ground-based FTIR total atmospheric columnar δD_v amounts, and in situ hourly Picarro δD_v measurements. There is an excellent correlation between observed and predicted δD_v at surface while the comparison between water column values derived from the model compares well with FTIR estimates