Prediction of Ureteral Injury During Colorectal Surgery Using Machine Learning

Background Ureteral injury (UI) is a rare but devastating complication during colorectal surgery. Ureteral stents may reduce UI but carry risks themselves. Risk predictors for UI could help target the use of stents, but previous efforts have relied on logistic regression (LR), shown moderate accuracy, and used intraoperative variables. We sought to use an emerging approach in predictive analytics, machine learning, to create a model for UI. Methods Patients who underwent colorectal surgery were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database. Patients were split into training, validation, and test sets. The primary outcome was UI. Three machine learning approaches were tested including random forest (RF), gradient boosting (XGB), and neural networks (NN), and compared with traditional LR. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUROC). Results The data set included 262,923 patients, of whom 1519 (.578%) experienced UI. Of the modeling techniques, XGB performed the best, with an AUROC score of .774 (95% CI .742-.807) compared with .698 (95% CI .664-.733) for LR. Random forest and NN performed similarly with scores of .738 and .763, respectively. Type of procedure, work RVUs, indication for surgery, and mechanical bowel prep showed the strongest influence on model predictions. Conclusions Machine learning-based models significantly outperformed LR and previous models and showed high accuracy in predicting UI during colorectal surgery. With proper validation, they could be used to support decision making regarding the placement of ureteral stents preoperatively

A low-mass planet candidate orbiting Proxima Centauri at a distance of 1.5 AU

Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).Our nearest neighbor, Proxima Centauri, hosts a temperate terrestrial planet. We detected in radial velocities evidence of a possible second planet with minimum mass m c sin i c = 5.8 ± 1.9 M ⊕ and orbital period P c = 5.21 - 0.22 + 0.26 years. The analysis of photometric data and spectro-scopic activity diagnostics does not explain the signal in terms of a stellar activity cycle, but follow-up is required in the coming years for confirming its planetary origin. We show that the existence of the planet can be ascertained, and its true mass can be determined with high accuracy, by combining Gaia astrometry and radial velocities. Proxima c could become a prime target for follow-up and characterization with next-generation direct imaging instrumentation due to the large maximum angular separation of ~1 arc second from the parent star. The candidate planet represents a challenge for the models of super-Earth formation and evolution.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Changing fish distributions challenge the effective management of European fisheries.

Changes in fish distribution are being observed across the globe. In Europe's Common Fisheries Policy, the share of the catch of each fish stock is split among management areas using a fixed allocation key known as ‘Relative Stability’: in each management area, member states get the same proportion of the total catch each year. That proportion is largely based on catches made by those member states in the 1970s. Changes in distribution can, therefore, result in a mismatch between quota shares and regional abundances within management areas, with potential repercussions for the status of fish stocks and the fisheries that depend on them. Assessing distribution changes is crucial to ensure adequate management and sustainable exploitation of our fish resources. We analysed scientific survey data using a three‐tiered analytical approach to provide, for the first time, an overview of changes in distribution for 19 northeast Atlantic fish species encompassing 73 commercial stocks over 30 yr. All species have experienced changes in distribution, five of which did so across management areas. A cross‐species analysis suggested that shifts in areas of suitable thermal habitat, and density‐dependent use of these areas, are at least partly responsible for the observed changes. These findings challenge the current use of relative stability to allocate quotas.acceptedVersio

Role of the interval from completion of neoadjuvant therapy to surgery in postoperative morbidity in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

Increasing the interval from completion of neoadjuvant therapy to surgery beyond 8 weeks is associated with increased response of rectal cancer to neoadjuvant therapy. However, reports are conflicting on whether extending the time to surgery is associated with increased perioperative morbidity. Patients who presented with a tumor within 15 cm of the anal verge in 2009-2015 were grouped according to the interval between completion of neoadjuvant therapy and surgery: < 8 weeks, 8-12 weeks, and 12-16 weeks. Among 607 patients, the surgery was performed at < 8 weeks in 317 patients, 8-12 weeks in 229 patients, and 12-16 weeks in 61 patients. Patients who underwent surgery at 8-12 weeks and patients who underwent surgery at < 8 weeks had comparable rates of complications (37% and 44%, respectively). Univariable analysis identified male sex, earlier date of diagnosis, tumor location within 5 cm of the anal verge, open operative approach, abdominoperineal resection, and use of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy alone to be associated with higher rates of complications. In multivariable analysis, male sex, tumor location within 5 cm of the anal verge, open operative approach, and neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy administered alone were independently associated with the presence of a complication. The interval between neoadjuvant therapy and surgery was not an independent predictor of postoperative complications. Delaying surgery beyond 8 weeks from completion of neoadjuvant therapy does not appear to increase surgical morbidity in rectal cancer patients

Transcriptional Subtyping and CD8 Immunohistochemistry Identifies Patients With Stage II and III Colorectal Cancer With Poor Prognosis Who Benefit From Adjuvant Chemotherapy

This work was funded by Cancer Research UK: C212/A13721 and C11884/A24387Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Comparative efficacy of two primary care interventions to assist withdrawal from long term benzodiazepine use: A protocol for a clustered, randomized clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although benzodiazepines are effective, long-term use is not recommended because of potential adverse effects; the risks of tolerance and dependence; and an increased risk of hip fractures, motor vehicle accidents, and memory impairment. The estimated prevalence of long-term benzodiazepine use in the general population is about 2,2 to 2,6%, is higher in women and increases steadily with age. Interventions performed by General Practitioners may help patients to discontinue long-term benzodiazepine use. We have designed a trial to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of two brief general practitioner-provided interventions, based on gradual dose reduction, and will compare the effectiveness of these interventions with that of routine clinical practice.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>In a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial, general practitioners will be randomly allocated to: a) a group in which the first patient visit will feature a structured interview, followed by visits every 2-3 weeks to the end of dose reduction; b) a group in which the first patient visit will feature a structured interview plus delivery of written instructions to self-reduce benzodiazepine dose, or c) routine care. Using a computerized pharmaceutical prescription database, 495 patients, aged 18-80 years, taking benzodiazepine for at least 6 months, will be recruited in primary care health districts of three regions of Spain (the Balearic Islands, Catalonia, and Valencia). The primary outcome will be benzodiazepine use at 12 months. The secondary outcomes will include measurements of anxiety and depression symptoms, benzodiazepine dependence, quality of sleep, and alcohol consumption.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Although some interventions have been shown to be effective in reducing benzodiazepine consumption by long-term users, the clinical relevance of such interventions is limited by their complexity. This randomized trial will compare the effectiveness and safety of two complex stepped care interventions with that of routine care in a study with sufficient statistical power to detect clinically relevant differences.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN13024375">ISRCTN13024375</a></p

Mismatch repair-deficient rectal cancer and resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Purpose: Evaluate response of mismatch repair deficient (dMMR) rectal cancer to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Experimental Design: dMMR rectal tumors at Memorial Sloan Kettering were retrospectively reviewed for characteristics, treatment, and outcomes. Fifty dMMR rectal cancer patients were identified by immunohistochemistry and/or microsatellite instability analysis, with initial treatment response compared to a matched pMMR rectal cancer cohort. Germline and somatic mutation analyses were evaluated. Patient-derived dMMR rectal tumoroids were assessed for chemotherapy sensitivity. Results: Of 21 patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (fluorouracil/oxaliplatin), 6 (29%) had progression of disease. In comparison, no progression was noted in 63 pMMR rectal tumors (P = 0.0001). Rectal cancer dMMR tumoroids reflected this resistance to chemotherapy. No genomic predictors of chemotherapy response were identified. Of 16 patients receiving chemoradiation, 13 (93%) experienced tumor downstaging; one patient had stable disease, comparable to 48 pMMR rectal cancers. Of 13 patients undergoing surgery, 12 (92%) had early-stage disease. Forty-two (84%) of the 50 patients tested positive for Lynch syndrome (LS) with enrichment of germline MSH2 and MSH6 mutations when compared to 193 LS-associated colon cancer patients (MSH2, 57% vs 36%; MSH6, 17% vs 9%; P &lt; .003). Conclusions: Over one-fourth of dMMR rectal tumors treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy exhibited disease progression. Conversely, dMMR rectal tumors were sensitive to chemoradiation. MMR status should be performed upfront in all locally advanced rectal tumors with careful monitoring for response on neoadjuvant chemotherapy and genetic testing for LS in dMMR rectal cancer patients

Colorectal cancer incidences in Lynch syndrome: a comparison of results from the prospective lynch syndrome database and the international mismatch repair consortium

Objective To compare colorectal cancer (CRC) incidences in carriers of pathogenic variants of the MMR genes in the PLSD and IMRC cohorts, of which only the former included mandatory colonoscopy surveillance for all participants. Methods CRC incidences were calculated in an intervention group comprising a cohort of confirmed carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes (path_MMR) followed prospectively by the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD). All had colonoscopy surveillance, with polypectomy when polyps were identified. Comparison was made with a retrospective cohort reported by the International Mismatch Repair Consortium (IMRC). This comprised confirmed and inferred path_MMR carriers who were first- or second-degree relatives of Lynch syndrome probands. Results In the PLSD, 8,153 subjects had follow-up colonoscopy surveillance for a total of 67,604 years and 578 carriers had CRC diagnosed. Average cumulative incidences of CRC in path_MLH1 carriers at 70 years of age were 52% in males and 41% in females; for path_MSH2 50% and 39%; for path_MSH6 13% and 17% and for path_PMS2 11% and 8%. In contrast, in the IMRC cohort, corresponding cumulative incidences were 40% and 27%; 34% and 23%; 16% and 8% and 7% and 6%. Comparing just the European carriers in the two series gave similar findings. Numbers in the PLSD series did not allow comparisons of carriers from other continents separately. Cumulative incidences at 25 years were < 1% in all retrospective groups. Conclusions Prospectively observed CRC incidences (PLSD) in path_MLH1 and path_MSH2 carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance and polypectomy were higher than in the retrospective (IMRC) series, and were not reduced in path_MSH6 carriers. These findings were the opposite to those expected. CRC point incidence before 50 years of age was reduced in path_PMS2 carriers subjected to colonoscopy, but not significantly so