Machine learning approximations to predict epigenetic age acceleration in stroke patients

Age acceleration (Age-A) is a useful tool that is able to predict a broad range of health outcomes. It is necessary to determine DNA methylation levels to estimate it, and it is known that Age-A is influenced by environmental, lifestyle, and vascular risk factors (VRF). The aim of this study is to estimate the contribution of these easily measurable factors to Age-A in patients with cerebrovascular disease (CVD), using different machine learning (ML) approximations, and try to find a more accessible model able to predict Age-A. We studied a CVD cohort of 952 patients with information about VRF, lifestyle habits, and target organ damage. We estimated Age-A using Hannum\u27s epigenetic clock, and trained six different models to predict Age-A: a conventional linear regression model, four ML models (elastic net regression (EN), K-Nearest neighbors, random forest, and support vector machine models), and one deep learning approximation (multilayer perceptron (MLP) model). The best-performing models were EN and MLP; although, the predictive capability was modest (

Increased COVID-19 mortality in people with previous cerebrovascular disease: a population-based cohort study

Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; 2019-nCoV; Ictus hemorràgic; Ictus isquèmic; Hemorràgia subaracnoideaCoronavirus SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; 2019-nCoV; Ictus hemorrágico; Ictus isquémico; Hemorragia subaracnoideaCoronavirus SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; 2019-nCoV; Hemorrhagic stroke; Ischemic stroke; Subarachnoid hemorrhageBackground: The aim of the study was to determine the association between previous stroke and mortality after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) according to sex, age groups, and stroke subtypes. Methods: Prospective population-based cohort study including all COVID-19 positive cases between February 1 and July 31, 2020. Comorbidities and mortality were extracted using linked health administration databases. Previous stroke included transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and combined stroke for cases with more than one category. Other comorbidities were obesity, diabetes, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, dementia, individual socioeconomic index, and deprivation index. Cases were followed up until December 31, 2020. Primary outcome was mortality of any cause after COVID-19 positivity. Cox proportional regression analysis adjusted for comorbidities was used. Stratified analyses were performed for sex and age (<60, 60-79, and ≥80 years). Results: There were 91 629 COVID-19 cases. Previous strokes were 5752 (6.27%), of which 3887 (67.57%) were ischemic, 1237 (21.50%) transient ischemic attack, 255 (4.43%) combined, 203 (3.53%) hemorrhagic, and 170 (2.96%) subarachnoid hemorrhage. There were 9512 deaths (10.38%). Mortality was associated with previous stroke (hazard ratio [HR]=1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.18]; P<0.001), in both sexes separately (men=1.13 [1.05-1.22]; P=0.001; women=1.09 [1.01-1.18]; P=0.023), in people <60 years (HR=2.97 [1.97-4.48]; P<0.001) and 60 to 79 years (HR=1.32 [1.19-1.48]; P<0.001) but not in people ≥80 years (HR=1.02 [0.96-1.09]; P=0.437). Ischemic (HR=1.11 [1.05-1.18]; P=0.001), hemorrhagic (HR=1.53 [1.20-1.96]; P=0.001) and combined (HR=1.31 [1.05-1.63]; P=0.016) strokes were associated but not transient ischemic attack. Subarachnoid hemorrhage was associated only in people <60 years (HR=5.73 [1.82-18.06]; P=0.003). Conclusions: Previous stroke was associated with a higher mortality in people younger than 80 years. The association occurred for both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke but not for transient ischemic attack. These data might help healthcare authorities to establish prioritization strategies for COVID-19 vaccination.This work was supported, in part, by Spain’s Ministry of Health (Instituto de Salud Carlos III FEDER, RD16/0019/0002 and RD16/0019/0010 INVICTUS-PLUS

Altered methylation pattern in EXOC4 is associated with stroke outcome: an epigenome-wide association study

Background and purpose: The neurological course after stroke is highly variable and is determined by demographic, clinical and genetic factors. However, other heritable factors such as epigenetic DNA methylation could play a role in neurological changes after stroke. Methods: We performed a three-stage epigenome-wide association study to evaluate DNA methylation associated with the difference between the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at baseline and at discharge (Delta NIHSS) in ischaemic stroke patients. DNA methylation data in the Discovery (n = 643) and Replication (n = 62) Cohorts were interrogated with the 450 K and EPIC BeadChip. Nominal CpG sites from the Discovery (p value < 10(-06)) were also evaluated in a meta-analysis of the Discovery and Replication cohorts, using a random-fixed effect model. Metabolic pathway enrichment was calculated with methylGSA. We integrated the methylation data with 1305 plasma protein expression levels measured by SOMAscan in 46 subjects and measured RNA expression with RT-PCR in a subgroup of 13 subjects. Specific cell-type methylation was assessed using EpiDISH. Results: The meta-analysis revealed an epigenome-wide significant association in EXOC4 (p value = 8.4 x 10(-08)) and in MERTK (p value = 1.56 x 10(-07)). Only the methylation in EXOC4 was also associated in the Discovery and in the Replication Cohorts (p value = 1.14 x 10(-06) and p value = 1.3 x 10(-02), respectively). EXOC4 methylation negatively correlated with the long-term outcome (coefficient = - 4.91) and showed a tendency towards a decrease in EXOC4 expression (rho = - 0.469, p value = 0.091). Pathway enrichment from the meta-analysis revealed significant associations related to the endocytosis and deubiquitination processes. Seventy-nine plasma proteins were differentially expressed in association with EXOC4 methylation. Pathway analysis of these proteins showed an enrichment in natural killer (NK) cell activation. The cell-type methylation analysis in blood also revealed a differential methylation in NK cells. Conclusions: DNA methylation of EXOC4 is associated with a worse neurological course after stroke. The results indicate a potential modulation of pathways involving endocytosis and NK cells regulation

A Multitrait Genetic Study of Hemostatic Factors and Hemorrhagic Transformation after Stroke Treatment

BACKGROUND: Thrombolytic recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (r-tPA) treatment is the only pharmacologic intervention available in the ischemic stroke acute phase. This treatment is associated with an increased risk of intracerebral hemorrhages, known as hemorrhagic transformations (HTs), which worsen the patient\u27s prognosis. OBJECTIVES: to investigate the association between genetically determined natural hemostatic factors\u27 levels and increased risk of HT after r-tPA treatment. METHODS: Using data from genome-wide association studies on the risk of HT after r-tPA treatment and data on 7 hemostatic factors (factor [F]VII, FVIII, von Willebrand factor [VWF], FXI, fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and tissue plasminogen activator), we performed local and global genetic correlation estimation multitrait analyses and colocalization and 2-sample Mendelian randomization analyses between hemostatic factors and HT. RESULTS: Local correlations identified a genomic region on chromosome 16 with shared covariance: fibrinogen-HT, P = 2.45 × 10 CONCLUSION: We identified 4 shared loci between hemostatic factors and HT after r-tPA treatment, suggesting common regulatory mechanisms between fibrinogen and VWF levels and HT. Further research to determine a possible mediating effect of fibrinogen on HT risk is needed

Genomic and phenotypic insights from an atlas of genetic effects on DNA methylation.

Characterizing genetic influences on DNA methylation (DNAm) provides an opportunity to understand mechanisms underpinning gene regulation and disease. In the present study, we describe results of DNAm quantitative trait locus (mQTL) analyses on 32,851 participants, identifying genetic variants associated with DNAm at 420,509 DNAm sites in blood. We present a database of >270,000 independent mQTLs, of which 8.5% comprise long-range (trans) associations. Identified mQTL associations explain 15–17% of the additive genetic variance of DNAm. We show that the genetic architecture of DNAm levels is highly polygenic. Using shared genetic control between distal DNAm sites, we constructed networks, identifying 405 discrete genomic communities enriched for genomic annotations and complex traits. Shared genetic variants are associated with both DNAm levels and complex diseases, but only in a minority of cases do these associations reflect causal relationships from DNAm to trait or vice versa, indicating a more complex genotype–phenotype map than previously anticipated.C.L.R., G.D.S., G.S., J.L.M., K.B., M. Suderman, T.G.R. and T.R.G. are supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/4, MC_UU_00011/5). C.L.R. receives support from a Cancer Research UK Programme grant (no. C18281/A191169). G.H. is funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (208806/Z/17/Z). E.H. and J.M. were supported by MRC project grants (nos. MR/K013807/1 and MR/R005176/1 to J.M.) and an MRC Clinical Infrastructure award (no. MR/M008924/1 to J.M.). B.T.H. is supported by the Netherlands CardioVascular Research Initiative (the Dutch Heart Foundation, Dutch Federation of University Medical Centres, the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, and the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences) for the GENIUS project ‘Generating the best evidence-based pharmaceutical targets for atherosclerosis’ (CVON2011-19, CVON2017-20). J.T.B. was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant no. ES/N000404/1). The present study was also supported by JPI HDHL-funded DIMENSION project (administered by the BBSRC UK, grant no. BB/S020845/1 to J.T.B., and by ZonMW the Netherlands, grant no. 529051021 to B.T.H). A.D.B. has been supported by a Wellcome Trust PhD Training Fellowship for Clinicians and the Edinburgh Clinical Academic Track programme (204979/Z/16/Z). J. Klughammer was supported by a DOC fellowship of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. Cohort-specific acknowledgements and funding are presented in the Supplementary Note

Comparison of the impact of atrial fibrillation on the risk of early death after stroke in women versus men

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is considered a predictive factor of poor clinical outcome in patients with an ischemic stroke (IS). This study addressed whether the impact of AF on the in-hospital mortality after first ever IS is different according to the patient’s gender. METHODS: We prospectively studied 1678 patients with first ever IS consecutively admitted to two University Hospitals. We recorded demographic data, vascular risk factors, and the stroke severity (NIHSS) at admission analyzing their impact on the in-hospital mortality and on the combined mortality-dependency at discharge using a Cox proportional hazards model. Two variable interactions between those factors independently related to in-hospital mortality and combined mortality-dependency at discharge were tested. RESULTS: Overall in-hospital mortality was 11.3%. Cox proportional hazards model showed that NIHSS at admission (HR: 1.178 [95% CI 1.149–1.207]), age (HR: 1.044 [95% CI 1.026–1.061]), AF (HR: 1.416 [95% CI 1.048–1.913]), male gender (HR: 1.853 [95% CI 1.323–2.192) and ischemic heart disease (HR: 1.527 [95% CI 1.063–2.192]) were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. A significant interaction between gender and AF was found (p = 0.017). Data were stratified by gender, showing that AF was an independent predictor of poor outcome just for woman (HR: 2.183 [95% CI 1.403–3.396]; p < 0.001). The independent predictors of combined mortality-disability at discharge were NIHSS at admission (HR: 1.052 [95% CI 1.041–1.063]), age (HR: 1.011 [95% CI 1.004–1.018]), AF (HR: 1.197 [95% CI 1.031–1.390]), ischemic heart disease (HR: 1.222 [95% CI 1.004–1.488]), and smoking (HR: 1.262 [95% CI 1.033–1.541]). CONCLUSIONS: The impact of AF is different in the twogenders and appears as a specific ischemic stroke predictor of in-hospital mortality just for women

Single nucleotide variations in ZBTB46 are associated with post-thrombolytic parenchymal haematoma

Haemorrhagic transformation is a complication of recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator treatment. The most severe form, parenchymal haematoma, can result in neurological deterioration, disability, and death. Our objective was to identify single nucleotide variations associated with a risk of parenchymal haematoma following thrombolytic therapy in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. A fixed-effect genome-wide meta-analysis was performed combining two-stage genome-wide association studies (n = 1904). The discovery stage (three cohorts) comprised 1324 ischaemic stroke individuals, 5.4% of whom had a parenchymal haematoma. Genetic variants yielding a P-value < 0.05 1 x 10(-5) were analysed in the validation stage (six cohorts), formed by 580 ischaemic stroke patients with 12.1% haemorrhagic events. All participants received recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator; cases were parenchymal haematoma type 1 or 2 as defined by the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) criteria. Genome-wide significant findings (P < 5 x 10(-8)) were characterized by in silica functional annotation, gene expression, and DNA regulatory elements. We analysed 7 989 272 single nucleotide polymorphisms and identified a genome-wide association locus on chromosome 20 in the discovery cohort; functional annotation indicated that the ZBTB46 gene was driving the association for chromosome 20. The top single nucleotide polymorphism was rs76484331 in the ZBTB46 gene [P = 2.49 x 10(-8); odds ratio (OR): 11.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.82-26.55]. In the replication cohort (n = 580), the rs76484331 polymorphism was associated with parenchymal haematoma (P = 0.01), and the overall association after meta-analysis increased (P = 1.61 x 10(-8), OR: 5.84; 95% CI: 3.16-10.76). ZBTB46 codes the zinc finger and BTB domain-containing protein 46 that acts as a transcription factor. In silica studies indicated that ZBTB46 is expressed in brain tissue by neurons and endothelial cells. Moreover, rs76484331 interacts with the promoter sites located at 20q13. In conclusion, we identified single nucleotide variants in the ZBTB46 gene associated with a higher risk of parenchymal haematoma following recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator treatment.Peer reviewe

Intracranial Aneurysm Classifier Using Phenotypic Factors: An International Pooled Analysis

Intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are usually asymptomatic with a low risk of rupture, but consequences of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are severe. Identifying IAs at risk of rupture has important clinical and socio-economic consequences. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of patient and IA characteristics on the likelihood of IA being diagnosed incidentally versus ruptured. Patients were recruited at 21 international centers. Seven phenotypic patient characteristics and three IA characteristics were recorded. The analyzed cohort included 7992 patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that: (1) IA location is the strongest factor associated with IA rupture status at diagnosis; (2) Risk factor awareness (hypertension, smoking) increases the likelihood of being diagnosed with unruptured IA; (3) Patients with ruptured IAs in high-risk locations tend to be older, and their IAs are smaller; (4) Smokers with ruptured IAs tend to be younger, and their IAs are larger; (5) Female patients with ruptured IAs tend to be older, and their IAs are smaller; (6) IA size and age at rupture correlate. The assessment of associations regarding patient and IA characteristics with IA rupture allows us to refine IA disease models and provide data to develop risk instruments for clinicians to support personalized decision-making

A multitrait genetic study of hemostatic factors and hemorrhagic transformation after stroke treatment

[Background] Thrombolytic recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (r-tPA) treatment is the only pharmacologic intervention available in the ischemic stroke acute phase. This treatment is associated with an increased risk of intracerebral hemorrhages, known as hemorrhagic transformations (HTs), which worsen the patient’s prognosis.[Objectives] To investigate the association between genetically determined natural hemostatic factors’ levels and increased risk of HT after r-tPA treatment.[Methods] Using data from genome-wide association studies on the risk of HT after r-tPA treatment and data on 7 hemostatic factors (factor [F]VII, FVIII, von Willebrand factor [VWF], FXI, fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and tissue plasminogen activator), we performed local and global genetic correlation estimation multitrait analyses and colocalization and 2-sample Mendelian randomization analyses between hemostatic factors and HT.[Results] Local correlations identified a genomic region on chromosome 16 with shared covariance: fibrinogen-HT, P = 2.45 × 10−11. Multitrait analysis between fibrinogen-HT revealed 3 loci that simultaneously regulate circulating levels of fibrinogen and risk of HT: rs56026866 (PLXND1), P = 8.80 × 10−10; rs1421067 (CHD9), P = 1.81 × 10−14; and rs34780449, near ROBO1 gene, P = 1.64 × 10−8. Multitrait analysis between VWF-HT showed a novel common association regulating VWF and risk of HT after r-tPA at rs10942300 (ZNF366), P = 1.81 × 10−14. Mendelian randomization analysis did not find significant causal associations, although a nominal association was observed for FXI-HT (inverse-variance weighted estimate [SE], 0.07 [−0.29 to 0.00]; odds ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75-1.00; raw P = .05).[Conclusion] We identified 4 shared loci between hemostatic factors and HT after r-tPA treatment, suggesting common regulatory mechanisms between fibrinogen and VWF levels and HT. Further research to determine a possible mediating effect of fibrinogen on HT risk is needed.This study is supported in part by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grants HL134894, HL139553, and HL141291. G.T.-S. is supported by the Pla Estratègic de Recerca i Innovació en Salut grant from the Catalan Department of Health for junior research personnel (SLT017/20/000100). M.S.-L. is supported by a Miguel Servet contract from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) Spanish Health Institute (CPII22/00007) and cofinanced by the European Social Fund. E.M. is supported by a Río Hortega Contract (CM18/00198) from the ISCIII. J.C.-M. is supported by an Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca Contract (FI_DGR 2020, grant number 2020FI_B1 00157) cofinanced by the European Social Fund. C.G.-F. is supported by a Sara Borrell Contract (CD20/00043) from ISCIII and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (ISCIII- FEDER). M.L. is supported by a Contratos Predoctorales de Formación en Investigación en Salud Contract from the ISCIII (FI19/00309).Peer reviewe

Table_3_A Polygenic Risk Score Based on a Cardioembolic Stroke Multitrait Analysis Improves a Clinical Prediction Model for This Stroke Subtype.DOCX

[Background] Occult atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the major causes of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Knowing the underlying etiology of an ESUS will reduce stroke recurrence and/or unnecessary use of anticoagulants. Understanding cardioembolic strokes (CES), whose main cause is AF, will provide tools to select patients who would benefit from anticoagulants among those with ESUS or AF. We aimed to discover novel loci associated with CES and create a polygenetic risk score (PRS) for a more efficient CES risk stratification.[Methods] Multitrait analysis of GWAS (MTAG) was performed with MEGASTROKE-CES cohort (n = 362,661) and AF cohort (n = 1,030,836). We considered significant variants and replicated those variants with MTAG p-value < 5 × 10−8 influencing both traits (GWAS-pairwise) with a p-value < 0.05 in the original GWAS and in an independent cohort (n = 9,105). The PRS was created with PRSice-2 and evaluated in the independent cohort.[Results] We found and replicated eleven loci associated with CES. Eight were novel loci. Seven of them had been previously associated with AF, namely, CAV1, ESR2, GORAB, IGF1R, NEURL1, WIPF1, and ZEB2. KIAA1755 locus had never been associated with CES/AF, leading its index variant to a missense change (R1045W). The PRS generated has been significantly associated with CES improving discrimination and patient reclassification of a model with age, sex, and hypertension.[Conclusion] The loci found significantly associated with CES in the MTAG, together with the creation of a PRS that improves the predictive clinical models of CES, might help guide future clinical trials of anticoagulant therapy in patients with ESUS or AF.Peer reviewe