Development and application of a non-Gaussian atmospheric turbulence model for use in flight simulators

A method is described for generating time histories which model the frequency content and certain non-Gaussian probability characteristics of atmospheric turbulence including the large gusts and patchy nature of turbulence. Methods for time histories using either analog or digital computation are described. A STOL airplane was programmed into a 6-degree-of-freedom flight simulator, and turbulence time histories from several atmospheric turbulence models were introduced. The pilots' reactions are described

A non-gaussian model of continuous atmospheric turbulence for use in aircraft design

A non-Gaussian model of atmospheric turbulence is presented and analyzed. The model is restricted to the regions of the atmosphere where the turbulence is steady or continuous, and the assumptions of homogeneity and stationarity are justified. Also spatial distribution of turbulence is neglected, so the model consists of three independent, stationary stochastic processes which represent the vertical, lateral, and longitudinal gust components. The non-Gaussian and Gaussian models are compared with experimental data, and it is shown that the Gaussian model underestimates the number of high velocity gusts which occur in the atmosphere, while the non-Gaussian model can be adjusted to match the observed high velocity gusts more satisfactorily. Application of the proposed model to aircraft response is investigated, with particular attention to the response power spectral density, the probability distribution, and the level crossing frequency. A numerical example is presented which illustrates the application of the non-Gaussian model to the study of an aircraft autopilot system. Listings and sample results of a number of computer programs used in working with the model are included

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Simulation der Strahlreinigung: Diffusionsmodell für quellbare Verschmutzungen

Ein im Hinblick auf geringen Berechnungsaufwand entwickeltes, physikalisch-numerisches Simulationsmodell für Reinigungsvorgänge durch diffusives Auflösen oder kohäsives Trennen kleiner Verschmutzungsteilchen wird vorgestellt und validiert. Die Strömungs- berechnung auf Grundlage der Reynolds-gemittelten Navier Stokes Gleichungen (RANS) und die Berechnung des Verschmutzungstransports mittels eines instationären RANS- Ansatzes erfolgen entkoppelt. Das Verschmutzungsverhalten ist als transiente Dirichlet-Randbedingung modelliert, deren Parameter aus Laborexperimenten in einer ebenen Kanalströmung bestimmt werden. Die Validierung erfolgt für die Konfiguration eines senkrecht auftreffenden, kohärenten Flüssigkeitsstrahls für den Düsendurchmesser 1,69 mm und Drücke in der Düse zwischen 1,5 und 5 bar, d.h. Reynolds-Zahlen zwischen 17700 und 55600. Gemessen an der im Vergleich zu den Parametrierungsexperimenten um mehrere Größenordnungen höheren Wandschubspannung, der Einfachheit des Modells und der Komplexität des Testfalls wird eine sehr gute Übereinstimmung der simulierten Reinigungszeiten mit den Messwerten erreicht. Die angestrebte Skalierbarkeit sowie die Übertragbarkeit des Modells auf andere Strömungskonfigurationen sind somit gegeben

Systematics Agenda 2020: The Mission Evolves

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Licens

Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18-35% while extinction risk increases for 8-23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.Peer reviewe

Evaluating Knowledge to Support Climate Action: A Framework for Sustained Assessment. Report of an Independent Advisory Committee on Applied Climate Assessment

As states, cities, tribes, and private interests cope with climate damages and seek to increase preparedness and resilience, they will need to navigate myriad choices and options available to them. Making these choices in ways that identify pathways for climate action that support their development objectives will require constructive public dialogue, community participation, and flexible and ongoing access to science- and experience-based knowledge. In 2016, a Federal Advisory Committee (FAC) was convened to recommend how to conduct a sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) to increase the relevance and usability of assessments for informing action. The FAC was disbanded in 2017, but members and additional experts reconvened to complete the report that is presented here. A key recommendation is establishing a new nonfederal "climate assessment consortium" to increase the role of state/local/tribal government and civil society in assessments. The expanded process would 1) focus on applied problems faced by practitioners, 2) organize sustained partnerships for collaborative learning across similar projects and case studies to identify effective tested practices, and 3) assess and improve knowledge-based methods for project implementation. Specific recommendations include evaluating climate models and data using user-defined metrics; improving benefit-cost assessment and supporting decision-making under uncertainty; and accelerating application of tools and methods such as citizen science, artificial intelligence, indicators, and geospatial analysis. The recommendations are the result of broad consultation and present an ambitious agenda for federal agencies, state/local/tribal jurisdictions, universities and the research sector, professional associations, nongovernmental and community-based organizations, and private-sector firms.New York State Energy Research and Development Authority [123416]; Columbia University's Earth Institute; American Meteorological Society; Kresge Foundation6 month embargo; published online: 21 May 2019This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

How Many Species Are There on Earth and in the Ocean?

The diversity of life is one of the most striking aspects of our planet; hence knowing how many species inhabit Earth is among the most fundamental questions in science. Yet the answer to this question remains enigmatic, as efforts to sample the world's biodiversity to date have been limited and thus have precluded direct quantification of global species richness, and because indirect estimates rely on assumptions that have proven highly controversial. Here we show that the higher taxonomic classification of species (i.e., the assignment of species to phylum, class, order, family, and genus) follows a consistent and predictable pattern from which the total number of species in a taxonomic group can be estimated. This approach was validated against well-known taxa, and when applied to all domains of life, it predicts ∼8.7 million (±1.3 million SE) eukaryotic species globally, of which ∼2.2 million (±0.18 million SE) are marine. In spite of 250 years of taxonomic classification and over 1.2 million species already catalogued in a central database, our results suggest that some 86% of existing species on Earth and 91% of species in the ocean still await description. Renewed interest in further exploration and taxonomy is required if this significant gap in our knowledge of life on Earth is to be closed