EXTINCTION RISK AND POPULATION DECLINES IN AMPHIBIANS

This thesis is about understanding the processes that explain the patterns of extinction risk and declines that we see in amphibians, how we can use that understanding to set conservation priorities, and how we can convert those priorities into practical, hands-on research and management. In particular, I focus on the threat posed by the emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, which is caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Amphibians display a non-random pattern of extinction risk, both taxonomically and geographically. In chapter two I investigate the mechanism behind the observed taxonomic selectivity and find that it is due to species biology rather than heterogeneity in either threat intensity or conservation knowledge. In chapter three I determine which biological and environmental traits are important in rendering a species susceptible to declines, focussing on susceptibility to Bd. I found that restricted range, high elevation species with an aquatic life-stage are more likely to have suffered a decline. Using these traits, I predict species and locations that may be susceptible in the future, and which should therefore be a high priority for amphibian research and conservation

Geometric factors influencing the diet of vertebrate predators in marine and terrestrial environments

Predator–prey relationships are vital to ecosystem function and there is a need for greater predictive understanding of these interactions. We develop a geometric foraging model predicting minimum prey size scaling in marine and terrestrial vertebrate predators taking into account habitat dimensionality and biological traits. Our model predicts positive predator–prey size relationships on land but negative relationships in the sea. To test the model, we compiled data on diets of 794 predators (mammals, snakes, sharks and rays). Consistent with predictions, both terrestrial endotherm and ectotherm predators have significantly positive predator–prey size relationships. Marine predators, however, exhibit greater variation. Some of the largest predators specialise on small invertebrates while others are large vertebrate specialists. Prey–predator mass ratios were generally higher for ectothermic than endothermic predators, although dietary patterns were similar. Model-based simulations of predator–prey relationships were consistent with observed relationships, suggestin

Long-Term Monitoring of Amphibian Populations of a National Park in Northern Spain Reveals Negative Persisting Effects of Ranavirus, but Not Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Amphibians are the most highly threatened vertebrates, and emerging pathogens are a serious threat to their conservation. Amphibian chytrid fungi and the viruses of the Ranavirus genus are causing disease outbreaks worldwide, including in protected areas such as National Parks. However, we lack information about their effect over amphibian populations in the long-term, and sometimes these mortality episodes are considered as transient events without serious consequences over longer time-spans. Here, we relate the occurrence of both pathogens with the population trends of 24 amphibian populations at 15 sites across a national Park in northern Spain over a 14-year period. Just one out 24 populations presents a positive population trend being free of both pathogens, while seven populations exposed to one or two pathogens experienced strong declines during the study period. The rest of the study populations (16) remain stable, and these tend to be of species that are not susceptible to the pathogen present or are free of pathogens. Our study is consistent with infectious diseases playing an important role in dictating amphibian population trends and emphasizes the need to adopt measures to control these pathogens in nature. We highlight that sites housing species carrying Ranavirus seems to have experienced more severe population-level effects compared to those with the amphibian chytrid fungus, and that ranaviruses could be just as, or more important, other more high-profile amphibian emerging pathogens

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future

Hubble Space Telescope Imaging of Lyman Alpha Emission at z=4.4

We present the highest redshift detections of resolved Lyman alpha emission, using Hubble Space Telescope/ACS F658N narrowband-imaging data taken in parallel with the Wide Field Camera 3 Early Release Science program in the GOODS CDF-S. We detect Lyman alpha emission from three spectroscopically confirmed z = 4.4 Lyman alpha emitting galaxies (LAEs), more than doubling the sample of LAEs with resolved Lyman alpha emission. Comparing the light distribution between the rest-frame ultraviolet continuum and narrowband images, we investigate the escape of Lyman alpha photons at high redshift. While our data do not support a positional offset between the Lyman alpha and rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) continuum emission, the half-light radii in two out of the three galaxies are significantly larger in Lyman alpha than in the rest-frame UV continuum. This result is confirmed when comparing object sizes in a stack of all objects in both bands. Additionally, the narrowband flux detected with HST is significantly less than observed in similar filters from the ground. These results together imply that the Lyman alpha emission is not strictly confined to its indigenous star-forming regions. Rather, the Lyman alpha emission is more extended, with the missing HST flux likely existing in a diffuse outer halo. This suggests that the radiative transfer of Lyman alpha photons in high-redshift LAEs is complicated, with the interstellar-medium geometry and/or outflows playing a significant role in galaxies at these redshifts.Comment: Submitted to the Astrophysical Journal. 11 pages, 10 figure

Mapping the Global Emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus

The rapid worldwide emergence of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is having a profound negative impact on biodiversity. However, global research efforts are fragmented and an overarching synthesis of global infection data is lacking. Here, we provide results from a community tool for the compilation of worldwide Bd presence and report on the analyses of data collated over a four-year period. Using this online database, we analysed: 1) spatial and taxonomic patterns of infection, including amphibian families that appear over-and under-infected; 2) relationships between Bd occurrence and declining amphibian species, including associations among Bd occurrence, species richness, and enigmatic population declines; and 3) patterns of environmental correlates with Bd, including climate metrics for all species combined and three families (Hylidae, Bufonidae, Ranidae) separately, at both a global scale and regional (U. S. A.) scale. These associations provide new insights for downscaled hypothesis testing. The pathogen has been detected in 52 of 82 countries in which sampling was reported, and it has been detected in 516 of 1240 (42%) amphibian species. We show that detected Bd infections are related to amphibian biodiversity and locations experiencing rapid enigmatic declines, supporting the hypothesis that greater complexity of amphibian communities increases the likelihood of emergence of infection and transmission of Bd. Using a global model including all sampled species, the odds of Bd detection decreased with increasing temperature range at a site. Further consideration of temperature range, rather than maximum or minimum temperatures, may provide new insights into Bd-host ecology. Whereas caution is necessary when interpreting such a broad global dataset, the use of our pathogen database is helping to inform studies of the epidemiology of Bd, as well as enabling regional, national, and international prioritization of conservation efforts. We provide recommendations for adaptive management to enhance the database utility and relevance

Complementarity, completeness and quality of long-term faunal archives in an Asian biodiversity hotspot

Long-term baselines on biodiversity change through time are crucial to inform conservation decision-making in biodiversity hotspots, but environmental archives remain unavailable for many regions. Extensive palaeontological, zooarchaeological and historical records and indigenous knowledge about past environmental conditions exist for China, a megadiverse country experiencing large-scale biodiversity loss, but their potential to understand past human-caused faunal turnover is not fully assessed. We investigate a series of complementary environmental archives to evaluate the quality of the Holocene–historical faunal record of Hainan Island, China's southernmost province, for establishing new baselines on postglacial mammalian diversity and extinction dynamics. Synthesis of multiple archives provides an integrated model of long-term biodiversity change, revealing that Hainan has experienced protracted and ongoing human-caused depletion of its mammal fauna from prehistory to the present, and that past baselines can inform practical conservation management. However, China's Holocene–historical archives exhibit substantial incompleteness and bias at regional and country-wide scales, with limited taxonomic representation especially for small-bodied species, and poor sampling of high-elevation landscapes facing current-day climate change risks. Establishing a clearer understanding of the quality of environmental archives in threatened ecoregions, and their ability to provide a meaningful understanding of the past, is needed to identify future conservation-relevant historical research priorities

The status of the world's land and marine mammals: diversity, threat, and knowledge

Knowledge of mammalian diversity is still surprisingly disparate, both regionally and taxonomically. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of the conservation status and distribution of the world's mammals. Data, compiled by 1700+ experts, cover all 5487 species, including marine mammals. Global macroecological patterns are very different for land and marine species but suggest common mechanisms driving diversity and endemism across systems. Compared with land species, threat levels are higher among marine mammals, driven by different processes (accidental mortality and pollution, rather than habitat loss), and are spatially distinct (peaking in northern oceans, rather than in Southeast Asia). Marine mammals are also disproportionately poorly known. These data are made freely available to support further scientific developments and conservation action