Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

The discovery of a z=0.7092 OH megamaser with the MIGHTEE survey

We present the discovery of the most distant OH megamaser to be observed in the main lines, using data from the MeerKAT International Giga-Hertz Tiered Extragalactic Exploration (MIGHTEE) survey. At a newly measured redshift of = 0.7092, the system has strong emission in both the 1665 MHz ( ≈ 2500 L⊙) and 1667 MHz ( ≈ 4.5×104 L⊙) transitions, with both narrow and broad components. We interpret the broad line as a high-velocity-dispersion component of the 1667 MHz transition, with velocity ∼ 330 km s−1 with respect to the systemic velocity. The host galaxy has a stellar mass of ★ = 2.95 × 1010 M⊙ and a star-formation rate of SFR = 371 M⊙ yr−1 , placing it ∼ 1.5 dex above the main sequence for star-forming galaxies at this redshift, and can be classified as an ultra-luminous infrared galaxy. Alongside the optical imaging data, which exhibits evidence for a tidal tail, this suggests that the OH megamaser arises from a system that is currently undergoing a merger, which is stimulating star formation and providing the necessary conditions for pumping the OH molecule to saturation. The OHM is likely to be lensed, with a magnification factor of ∼ 2.5, and perhaps more if the maser emitting region is compact and suitably offset relative to the centroid of its host galaxy’s optical light. This discovery demonstrates that spectral line mapping with the new generation of radio interferometers may provide important information on the cosmic merger history of galaxies

Attenuation of Salt-Induced Cardiac Remodeling and Diastolic Dysfunction by the GPER Agonist G-1 in Female mRen2.Lewis Rats

The G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER) is expressed in various tissues including the heart. Since the mRen2.Lewis strain exhibits salt-dependent hypertension and early diastolic dysfunction, we assessed the effects of the GPER agonist (G-1, 40 nmol/kg/hr for 14 days) or vehicle (VEH, DMSO/EtOH) on cardiac function and structure.Intact female mRen2.Lewis rats were fed a normal salt (0.5% sodium; NS) diet or a high salt (4% sodium; HS) diet for 10 weeks beginning at 5 weeks of age.Prolonged intake of HS in mRen2.Lewis females resulted in significantly increased blood pressure, mildly reduced systolic function, and left ventricular (LV) diastolic compliance (as signified by a reduced E deceleration time and E deceleration slope), increased relative wall thickness, myocyte size, and mid-myocardial interstitial and perivascular fibrosis. G-1 administration attenuated wall thickness and myocyte hypertrophy, with nominal effects on blood pressure, LV systolic function, LV compliance and cardiac fibrosis in the HS group. G-1 treatment significantly increased LV lusitropy [early mitral annular descent (e')] independent of prevailing salt, and improved the e'/a' ratio in HS versus NS rats (P<0.05) as determined by tissue Doppler.Activation of GPER improved myocardial relaxation in the hypertensive female mRen2.Lewis rat and reduced cardiac myocyte hypertrophy and wall thickness in those rats fed a high salt diet. Moreover, these advantageous effects of the GPER agonist on ventricular lusitropy and remodeling do not appear to be associated with overt changes in blood pressure

A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain

Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain

Large herbivores may alter vegetation structure of semi-arid savannas through soil nutrient mediation

In savannas, the tree–grass balance is governed by water, nutrients, fire and herbivory, and their interactions. We studied the hypothesis that herbivores indirectly affect vegetation structure by changing the availability of soil nutrients, which, in turn, alters the competition between trees and grasses. Nine abandoned livestock holding-pen areas (kraals), enriched by dung and urine, were contrasted with nearby control sites in a semi-arid savanna. About 40 years after abandonment, kraal sites still showed high soil concentrations of inorganic N, extractable P, K, Ca and Mg compared to controls. Kraals also had a high plant production potential and offered high quality forage. The intense grazing and high herbivore dung and urine deposition rates in kraals fit the accelerated nutrient cycling model described for fertile systems elsewhere. Data of a concurrent experiment also showed that bush-cleared patches resulted in an increase in impala dung deposition, probably because impala preferred open sites to avoid predation. Kraal sites had very low tree densities compared to control sites, thus the high impala dung deposition rates here may be in part driven by the open structure of kraal sites, which may explain the persistence of nutrients in kraals. Experiments indicated that tree seedlings were increasingly constrained when competing with grasses under fertile conditions, which might explain the low tree recruitment observed in kraals. In conclusion, large herbivores may indirectly keep existing nutrient hotspots such as abandoned kraals structurally open by maintaining a high local soil fertility, which, in turn, constrains woody recruitment in a negative feedback loop. The maintenance of nutrient hotspots such as abandoned kraals by herbivores contributes to the structural heterogeneity of nutrient-poor savanna vegetation

Health state utilities associated with attributes of treatments for hepatitis C

BACKGROUND: Cost-utility analyses are frequently conducted to compare treatments for hepatitis C, which are often associated with complex regimens and serious adverse events. Thus, the purpose of this study was to estimate the utility associated with treatment administration and adverse events of hepatitis C treatments. DESIGN: Health states were drafted based on literature review and clinician interviews. General population participants in the UK valued the health states in time trade-off (TTO) interviews with 10- and 1-year time horizons. The 14 health states described hepatitis C with variations in treatment regimen and adverse events. RESULTS: A total of 182 participants completed interviews (50 % female; mean age = 39.3 years). Utilities for health states describing treatment regimens without injections ranged from 0.80 (1 tablet) to 0.79 (7 tablets). Utilities for health states describing oral plus injectable regimens were 0.77 (7 tablets), 0.75 (12 tablets), and 0.71 (18 tablets). Addition of a weekly injection had a disutility of −0.02. A requirement to take medication with fatty food had a disutility of −0.04. Adverse events were associated with substantial disutilities: mild anemia, −0.12; severe anemia, −0.32; flu-like symptoms, −0.21; mild rash, −0.13; severe rash, −0.48; depression, −0.47. One-year TTO scores were similar to these 10-year values. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse events and greater treatment regimen complexity were associated with lower utility scores, suggesting a perceived decrease in quality of life beyond the impact of hepatitis C. The resulting utilities may be used in models estimating and comparing the value of treatments for hepatitis C. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10198-014-0649-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Genome-wide association study identifies six new loci influencing pulse pressure and mean arterial pressure.

Numerous genetic loci have been associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in Europeans. We now report genome-wide association studies of pulse pressure (PP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). In discovery (N = 74,064) and follow-up studies (N = 48,607), we identified at genome-wide significance (P = 2.7 × 10(-8) to P = 2.3 × 10(-13)) four new PP loci (at 4q12 near CHIC2, 7q22.3 near PIK3CG, 8q24.12 in NOV and 11q24.3 near ADAMTS8), two new MAP loci (3p21.31 in MAP4 and 10q25.3 near ADRB1) and one locus associated with both of these traits (2q24.3 near FIGN) that has also recently been associated with SBP in east Asians. For three of the new PP loci, the estimated effect for SBP was opposite of that for DBP, in contrast to the majority of common SBP- and DBP-associated variants, which show concordant effects on both traits. These findings suggest new genetic pathways underlying blood pressure variation, some of which may differentially influence SBP and DBP