Studies on long-term inflow forecasting

This thesis aims to improve knowledge of long-term inflow and streamflow forecasts. A special focus is on the development of a new long-term forecast model and on the evaluation of long-term inflow forecasts. In the first part of the work, a new categorical long-term forecast model is developed and its performance is investigated in four case studies. The forecasts are based only on the current hydrological state of the basin and thus, weather forecasts are not utilised. By using the k-Nearest Neighbour Rule (k-NRR) or the minimum distance classifier (MDC), the forthcoming period is classified into a wetness class based on the hydrological state of the basin on the forecast date. Inflow forecast is finally based on this classification. The results show that for a lake with a large basin (Lake Päijänne case study), this forecast model could be used in real-time inflow forecasting and the results are comparable with the forecast accuracy of the multiple linear regression models. For small basins (<10 km²) and in Lake Pyhäjärvi, the use of the new model for long-term discharge forecasting gave satisfactory results on April 1. On October 1, long-term forecasting turned out to be difficult irrespective of the forecast model. In the second part of the work, long-term inflow forecasts are evaluated based on their length and accuracy. The study is based on two cases: a single multipurpose reservoir Lake Pyhäjärvi in Säkylä and a multipurpose lake-river system, River Kymijoki. The evaluation method is based on artificially generated inflow forecasts and on the optimisation of the release sequences based on these forecasts. The results are in line with the outcome of similar international studies: if the live capacity of the lake-river system compared with the annual inflow is small, short and accurate forecasts should be aimed at. For large systems, a long forecast period should be used without focusing as much on forecast accuracy. The main finding, however, is related to approximation of the potential hydropower production increase in Finland by supposing that forecast accuracy could be improved and the optimal forecast periods used. In the two case studies it was possible to increase hydropower production up to 0.7-9% compared with the status quo during the study period, if perfect inflow forecasts had been available. However, the realistic possibilities to increase hydropower production in Finland by improving forecast accuracy were approximated to be 0.5-2% at the maximum. At the same time problems related to floods and droughts would decrease. Simulated annealing is used as the optimisation algorithm in the operation of the systems, and the evaluation of the performance of this algorithm was one of the special objectives of this study. The algorithm was flexible and reliable

On Epistemology of Construction Engineering and Management

In philosophy of science, there have been two different starting points for epistemology: Platonism and Aristotelianism. These two alternative starting points have played a major role also in the formation of fundamental ideas of engineering and management generally as well as in relation to construction. It is contended that an overly Platonic influence on engineering and management has created a number of problems. For solving these problems, beyond mere patching, a more balanced take on Platonism and Aristotelianism is needed

Adaptive content management for collaborative 3D virtual spaces

Collaborative 3D virtual spaces and their services are often too heavy for a mobile device to handle. The burden of such services is divided between extensive amounts of data, which need to be downloaded prior to using the service, and the complexity of the resulting graphical rendering process. In this paper, a proxy based architecture for collaborative virtual spaces is used to manipulate graphical data demand-time to favor both network bandwidth usage and graphical rendering process. In addition, a proof of concept test is shown, regarding how the simplification process gains savings for different client device profiles, including laptops, tablets and mobile devices

Is local best? Examining the evidence for local adaptation in trees and its scale

Background: Although the importance of using local provenance planting stock for woodland production, habitat conservation and restoration remains contentious, the concept is easy to understand, attractive and easy to ‘sell’. With limited information about the extent and scale of adaptive variation in native trees, discussion about suitable seed sources often emphasises “local” in a very narrow sense or within political boundaries, rather than being based on sound evidence of the scale over which adaptation occurs. Concerns exist over the actual scale (magnitude and spatial scale) of adaptation in trees and the relative dangers of incorrect seed source or restricted seed collection, leading to the establishment of trees with restricted genetic diversity and limited adaptive potential. Tree provenance and progeny field trials in many parts of the world have shown the existence of genotype by environment interaction in many tree species, but have not necessarily looked at whether this is expressed as a home site advantage (i.e. whether provenance performance is unstable across sites, and there is better performance of a local seed source). Methods/design: This review will examine the evidence for local adaptation and its scale in a number of native tree species from different trial sites across the globe (e.g. tropical, Mediterranean, temperate). These trials have been measured and in some cases results published in a range of formats. The data have, however, usually been presented in the form of which provenances grow best at which sites. The review will examine existing data (published and unpublished) in the context of the scale of local adaptation, with the results being presented in two formats: (a) relating survival, performance of provenances (classified by seed zone/provenance region of origin) to seed zone/provenance region of the planting site; (b) plotting survival, performance provenances against the distance (Euclidean/ecological) between the provenance and the trial site.EEA BarilocheFil: Boshier, David. University of Oxford. Department of Plant Sciences; Reino UnidoFil: Broadhurst, Linda. CSIRO National Research Collections Australia (NRCA). Centre for Australian National Biodiversity Research (CANBR); AustraliaFil: Cornelius, Jonathan. International Center for Research in Agroforestry. World Agroforestry Centre; PerúFil: Gallo, Leonardo Ariel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Koskela, Jarkko. FAO; ItaliaFil: Loo, Judy. Bioversity International; ItaliaFil: Petrokofsky, Gillian. University of Oxford. Department of Zoology; Reino UnidosFil: St Clair, Bradley. US Forest Service. Pacific Northwest Research Station; Estados Unido

Is local best? Examining the evidence for local adaptation in trees and its scale

Background: Although the importance of using local provenance planting stock for woodland production, habitat conservation and restoration remains contentious, the concept is easy to understand, attractive and easy to ‘sell’. With limited information about the extent and scale of adaptive variation in native trees, discussion about suitable seed sources often emphasises “local” in a very narrow sense or within political boundaries, rather than being based on sound evidence of the scale over which adaptation occurs. Concerns exist over the actual scale (magnitude and spatial scale) of adaptation in trees and the relative dangers of incorrect seed source or restricted seed collection, leading to the establishment of trees with restricted genetic diversity and limited adaptive potential. Tree provenance and progeny field trials in many parts of the world have shown the existence of genotype by environment interaction in many tree species, but have not necessarily looked at whether this is expressed as a home site advantage (i.e. whether provenance performance is unstable across sites, and there is better performance of a local seed source). Methods/design: This review will examine the evidence for local adaptation and its scale in a number of native tree species from different trial sites across the globe (e.g. tropical, Mediterranean, temperate). These trials have been measured and in some cases results published in a range of formats. The data have, however, usually been presented in the form of which provenances grow best at which sites. The review will examine existing data (published and unpublished) in the context of the scale of local adaptation, with the results being presented in two formats: (a) relating survival, performance of provenances (classified by seed zone/provenance region of origin) to seed zone/provenance region of the planting site; (b) plotting survival, performance provenances against the distance (Euclidean/ecological) between the provenance and the trial site.EEA BarilocheFil: Boshier, David. University of Oxford. Department of Plant Sciences; Reino UnidoFil: Broadhurst, Linda. CSIRO National Research Collections Australia (NRCA). Centre for Australian National Biodiversity Research (CANBR); AustraliaFil: Cornelius, Jonathan. International Center for Research in Agroforestry. World Agroforestry Centre; PerúFil: Gallo, Leonardo Ariel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Koskela, Jarkko. FAO; ItaliaFil: Loo, Judy. Bioversity International; ItaliaFil: Petrokofsky, Gillian. University of Oxford. Department of Zoology; Reino UnidosFil: St Clair, Bradley. US Forest Service. Pacific Northwest Research Station; Estados Unido

Joint Polish–Finnish sampling of surface waters around the phosphogypsum waste stacks in Gdańsk and Police from 1 to 3 July 2013 – Results of the expedition

The report describes the results of the joint Polish–Finnish sampling expedition aimed at estimating the possible effects of the two Polish phosphogypsum stacks located in Wislinka (Gdańsk) and Police on the loading of the Baltic Sea and the nearby watercourses. The joint expedition was based on the agreement between the Polish and Finnish Ministers of the Environment in June 2013. The results indicate a clear effect of the phosphogypsum stack on phosphate and total phosphorus concentrations in the Martwa Wisla. The physical nature of the basin with no permanent flow into the sea weakens mixing and dilution and may cause a local enrichment of pollutants from external sources, compared with a normal river having a constant water flow into the sea. Our suggestion is that a comprehensive study should be carried out in the stack area of Wislinka, as well as in the Martwa Wisla and its catchment area, to be able to calculate water and phosphorus mass balances in the area, and the magnitude of inputs of phosphorus to the Baltic Sea caused by the stack. The role of sediments as sinks and sources of phosphorus and other pollutants in the Martwa Wisla should be studied as well. In Police the effects of the phosphogypsum stack were less obvious. This could be expected as a result of effective mixing and dilution due to the high flow in the Oder River. Additionally, measures have been implemented to prevent leakage, by means of a hydraulic barrier and by collecting runoff water and directing it to the local wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). However, the results of the present expedition and also the results of the local monitoring programme from 2008 to 2012 indicate that the effects of the phosphogypsum stack on the quality of the recipient water cannot be ruled out. In order to estimate possible leakages in Police we suggest that an intensive monitoring programme for both groundwater and surface waters would be initiated. The sampling frequency for monitoring the leakage from the phosphogypsum stack should be increased to at least 12 annual samples at both the upstream and downstream stations. In addition, the water flow of the Oder between the stack and the nearby island should be continuously monitored. This would enable a reliable estimation of the potential phosphorus load into the Baltic Sea caused by the stack

A power market-based operation support model for sub-daily hydropower regulation practices

Highlights • Investigate the impact of instant energy demand on sub-daily river regime. • Introducing power market impact index. • Introducing system efficiency ratio index. • Provides an efficient tool for sustainable river management. • Assess the interaction of power market and regulation practices.With increasing power production from renewable energy sources, sub-daily variations in energy demand need to be balanced. Today, hydropower is commonly used as balancing power. In this study, we quantified the impact of capacity constraints, in terms of reservoir volume and hydropower capacity, on the potential to comply with instant energy demand. To evaluate the impact, we developed two new metrics, power market impact and system efficiency ratio, which are based on two threshold flow regimes derived from natural flow as lower threshold release and regulated flow (based on hourly energy prices) as upper threshold release. The operation support model comprises 96 different regulation scenarios based on varying combinations of hydropower and reservoir capacities. For each scenario, an hourly water balance was simulated, to obtain the highest complying with upper threshold release based on actual energy demand. We tested the framework on the Kemijoki river with defined thresholds based on the natural flow regime (tributary river Ounasjoki) and the hourly energy price in Finland in 2017, and estimated the impact of regulation on hourly flow regime at the Taivalkoski hydropower station. The annual flow regime impact in 2013, 2014 and 2015 was estimated to be 74%, 84% and 61%, respectively, while the monthly impact varied from 27% to 100%. Our framework for evaluating interactions between the power market and sub-daily regulation practices is a useful novel tool for sustainable river management and can be easily applied to different rivers and regions and evaluated for different timescales

Avotoimiston sisäympäristön ja sisustuksen vaikutus kognitiiviseen suoriutumiseen ja viihtyvyyteen

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten avotoimiston sisäympäristön (melu, lämpöolot, ilmanvaihdon määrä) merkittävä heikentäminen vaikuttaa kognitiiviseen suoriutumiseen ja hyvinvointiin. Lisäksi selvitettiin, miten sisustuksen sävyt vaikuttavat.Loppuraportti.

Utilization and transfer of forest genetic resources: A global review

AbstractOver the last 200years, genetic resources of forest trees have been increasingly transferred, within and outside of species’ native distribution ranges, for forestry and for research and development (R&D). Transferred germplasm has been deployed to grow trees for numerous purposes, ranging from the production of wood and non-wood products to the provision of ecosystem services such as the restoration of forests for biodiversity conservation. The oldest form of R&D, provenance trials, revealed early on that seed origin has a major influence on the performance of planted trees. International provenance trials have been essential for selecting seed sources for reforestation and for improving tree germplasm through breeding. Many tree breeding programmes were initiated in the 1950s, but as one round of testing and selection typically takes decades, the most advanced of them are only in their third cycle. Recent advances in forest genomics have increased the understanding of the genetic basis of different traits, but it is unlikely that molecular marker-assisted approaches will quickly replace traditional tree breeding methods. Furthermore, provenance trials and progeny tests are still needed to complement new research approaches. Currently, seed of boreal and temperate trees for reforestation purposes are largely obtained from improved sources. The situation is similar for fast growing tropical and subtropical trees grown in plantations, but in the case of tropical hardwoods and many agroforestry trees, only limited tested or improved seed sources are available. Transfers of tree germplasm involve some risks of spreading pests and diseases, of introducing invasive tree species and of polluting the genetic make-up of already present tree populations. Many of these risks have been underestimated in the past, but they are now better understood and managed. Relatively few tree species used for forestry have become invasive, and the risk of spreading pests and diseases while transferring seed is considerably lower than when moving live plants. The implementation of the Nagoya Protocol on access to genetic resources and benefit sharing (ABS) may significantly change current transfer practices in the forestry sector by increasing transaction costs and the time needed to lawfully obtain forest genetic resources for R&D purposes. Many countries are likely to struggle to establish a well-functioning ABS regulatory system, slowing down the process of obtaining the necessary documentation for exchange. This is unfortunate, as climate change, outbreaks of pests and diseases, and continual pressure to support productivity, increase the need for transferring tree germplasm and accelerating R&D

The implications of global, European and national policies for the conservation and use of forest genetic resources in Europe

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