Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea: a new time series and modeling approach to CPR data

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock.lved questions about this stoc

The impact of environmental variability on Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus larval abundance to the west of the British Isles

The value of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) fish larvae dataset, with its extensive spatio-temporal coverage, has been recently demonstrated with studies on long-term changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors in the North Sea. We used a similar approach in the west and southwest area of the UK shelf and applied a principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters, combined with Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the west and southwest area of the UK shelf on mackerel larvae during the period 1960–2004. The analysis revealed 3 main periods of time (1960–1968; 1969–1994; 1995–2004) reflecting 3 different ecosystem states. The results suggest a transition from an ecosystem characterized by low temperature, high salinity, high abundances of zooplankton and the larger phytoplankton groups, to a system characterized by higher temperature, lower salinities, lower abundances of zooplankton and larger phytoplankton and higher abundances of the small phytoplankton species. Analysis revealed a very weak positive correlation between the Second principal component and mackerel larvae yearly abundance, attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results presented here are in broad accord with recent investigations that link climatic variability and dynamics of mackerel reproduction. However, the growing body of literature that documents statistical correlations between environment and mackerel needs to be supplemented by local process studies, to gain more insight and to be able to predict mackerel response to climate change scenarios. Utilising the strength of the CPR dataset, namely its unique temporal coverage, in an analysis where other data (such as egg surveys) are drawn in to compensate for the spatial issues could prove to be the way forward

The use of solved example problems for fostering strategies of self-regulated learning in journal writing

Roelle J, Krüger S, Jansen C, Berthold K. The use of solved example problems for fostering strategies of self-regulated learning in journal writing. Education Research International. 2012;2012: 751625 .Writing learning journals is a powerful tool to integrate self-regulated learning in classrooms. However, to exploit the full potential of journal writing, instructional support is needed that addresses the students’ deficits in the use of self-regulated learning strategies. A promising means to foster learning strategies in learning journals is the provision of solved example problems along with prompts. In a quasiexperimental field study, we provided fifth-grade students (N = 48) with solved example problems along with prompts either right from the beginning of writing their journals or after they had already written two learning journal entries. We found that the provision of solved example problems along with prompts right from the beginning of the journal writing process fostered the quality of both cognitive and metacognitive strategies and conceptual knowledge in the initial phase. The delayed provision of solved example problems after an initial phase of journal writing yielded a detrimental effect on the quality of cognitive strategies and a beneficial effect on the quality of metacognitive strategies. In sum, our results suggest that the provision of solved example problems along with prompts right from the beginning of journal writing can effectively support fifth-grade students in overcoming deficits in the use of self-regulated learning strategies

The influence of trial-by-trial feedback on trust in health, first-episode and chronic psychosis

Trust is crucial to establishing reciprocal, positive social interactions and seems to be compromised in psychosis. The trust game offers methods to assess an individual’s trust responses to trust-reciprocating, positive feedback. Various computational techniques have been implemented to measure trust responsiveness, mostly based on investments. Here, we propose a new method, focusing on feedback response. Psychosis patients show social dysfunction and reduced trust during early and more progressed illness stages. The present study inspects differences in feedback responsiveness of 102 first-episode psychosis patients (FEPs), 43 chronic psychosis patients (CPs), and 39 healthy controls (HCs) by adopting a novel assessment approach. Additionally, baseline trust, the trust exerted without any prior knowledge of the partner’s trustworthiness, and mean trust were examined. Participants performed a multi-round trust game, playing the investor role, and were paired with a computer, programmed to return at least the invested amount, representing a trustworthy partner. The new method detected group differences, more distinguished than the former methods. Contrary to our expectations, baseline trust was intact in patients. Relative to HCs, patients were less responsive to feedback, failing to integrate the positive information into their decision-making process. The magnitude of returns was not associated with increases in trust. This novel method showed promising results and confirmed patients’ deficits within the social interactional domain

The Role of Technical and Process Quality of Chatbots: A Case Study from the Insurance Industry

Artificial intelligence (AI) influences customer service through benefits, such as reliability, availability, and economic efficiency. However, AI applications also involve challenges of user acceptance and quality concerns. To address these challenges, we investigate the factors that impact AI preference and adoption among users of a chatbot in a real customer service scenario. We focus on Emma, a customer service chatbot at a large Finnish insurance company. Our analysis, based on an online survey administered to 225 consumers using the chatbot for their customer service needs, shows that customers are reasonably satisfied with Emma, though they are generally do not prefer AI over a human. Users’ perceived process quality relating to “soft” aspects of interaction is quintessential in strengthening technical quality relating to effectiveness and efficiency of service, both contributing to AI preference. Thus, the chatbot’s problem-solving ability acts as a hygiene factor, which alone cannot ensure adoption. As a pleasing and useful interaction is prerequisite for user experience, organizations should consider both technical and process quality when implementing chatbots in customer service

Enteral Vancomycin to Eliminate MRSA Carriership of the Digestive Tract in Critically Ill Patients

Background: Carriership with methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a risk for the development of secondary infections in critically ill patients. Previous studies suggest that enteral vancomycin is able to eliminate enteral carriership with MRSA. Data on individual effects of this treatment are lacking. Methods: Retrospective analysis of a database containing 15 year data of consecutive patients from a mixed medical-(cardio)surgical 18 bedded intensive care unit was conducted. All consecutive critically ill patients with enteral MRSA carriership detected in throat and/or rectal samples were collected. We analyzed those with follow-up cultures to determine the success rate of enteral vancomycin. Topical application of 2% vancomycin in a sticky oral paste was performed combined with a vancomycin solution of 500 mg four times daily in the nasogastric tube. This treatment was added to a regimen of selective digestive tract decontamination (SDD) to prevent ICU acquired infection. Results: Thirteen patients were included. The mean age was 65 years and the median APACHE II score was 21. MRSA was present in the throat in 8 patients and in both throat and rectum in 5 patients. In all patients MRSA was successfully eliminated from both throat and rectum, which took 2–11 days with a median duration until decontamination of 4 days. Secondary infections with MRSA did not occur. Conclusions: Topical treatment with vancomycin in a 2% sticky oral paste four times daily in the nasogastric tube was effective in all patients in the elimination of MRSA and prevented secondary MRSA infections

Eradication of Resistant and Susceptible Aerobic Gram-Negative Bacteria From the Digestive Tract in Critically Ill Patients; an Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Selective Decontamination of the Digestive tract (SDD) aims to prevent nosocomial infections, by eradication of potentially pathogenic micro-organisms from the digestive tract. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the rate of and the time to eradication of resistant vs. susceptible facultative aerobic gram-negative bacteria (AGNB) in patients treated with SDD. METHODS: This observational and retrospective study included patients admitted to the ICU between January 2001 and August 2017. Patients were included when treated with SDD (tobramycin, polymyxin B, and amphotericin B) and colonized in the upper or lower gastro-intestinal (GI) tract with at least one AGNB present on admission. Decontamination was determined after the first negative set of cultures (rectal and throat). An additional analysis was performed of two consecutive negative cultures. RESULTS: Of the 281 susceptible AGNB in the throat and 1,087 in the rectum on admission, 97.9 and 93.7%, respectively, of these microorganisms were successfully eradicated. In the upper GI-tract no differences in eradication rates were found between susceptible and resistant microorganisms. However, the median duration until eradication was significantly longer for aminoglycosides resistant vs. susceptible microorganisms (5 vs. 4 days, p < 0.01). In the lower GI-tract, differences in eradication rates between susceptible and resistant microorganisms were found for cephalosporins (90.0 vs. 95.6%), aminoglycosides (84.4 vs. 95.5%) and ciprofloxacin (90.0 vs. 95.2%). Differences in median duration until eradication between susceptible and resistant microorganisms were found for aminoglycosides and ciprofloxacin (both 5 days vs. 6 days, p = 0.001). Decontamination defined as two negative cultures was achieved in a lower rate (77–98% for the upper GI tract and 64–77% for the lower GI tract) and a median of 1 day later. CONCLUSION: The vast majority of both susceptible and resistant microorganisms are effectively eradicated from the upper and lower GI tract. In the lower GI tract decontamination rates of susceptible microorganisms are significantly higher and achieved in a shorter time period compared to resistant strains

Using Photo Stories to Support Doctor-Patient Communication:Evaluating a Communicative Health Literacy Intervention for Older Adults

Older adults often have limited health literacy and experience difficulties in communicating about their health. In view of the need for efficacious interventions, we compared a narrative photo story booklet regarding doctor-patient communication with a non-narrative but otherwise highly similar brochure. The photo story booklet included seven short picture-based stories about themes related to doctor-patient communication. The non-narrative brochure had comparable pictures and layout and dealt with the same themes, but it did not include any stories. We conducted two Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) among older adults with varying levels of health literacy: one RCT in Germany (N = 66) and one RCT in the Netherlands (N = 54); the latter one was followed by an in-depth interview study among a subset of the participants (81.5%; n = 44). In the RCTs, we did not find significant differences between the photo story booklet and the non-narrative brochure. In the interview study, a majority of the participants expressed a preference for the photo story booklet, which was perceived as recognizable, relevant, entertaining and engaging. We conclude that photo story booklets are a promising format but that there is room for improving their effectiveness