Strong stability preserving explicit Runge-Kutta methods of maximal effective order

We apply the concept of effective order to strong stability preserving (SSP) explicit Runge-Kutta methods. Relative to classical Runge-Kutta methods, methods with an effective order of accuracy are designed to satisfy a relaxed set of order conditions, but yield higher order accuracy when composed with special starting and stopping methods. We show that this allows the construction of four-stage SSP methods with effective order four (such methods cannot have classical order four). However, we also prove that effective order five methods - like classical order five methods - require the use of non-positive weights and so cannot be SSP. By numerical optimization, we construct explicit SSP Runge-Kutta methods up to effective order four and establish the optimality of many of them. Numerical experiments demonstrate the validity of these methods in practice.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 8 table

Thermal constraints on the reionisation of hydrogen by population-II stellar sources

Measurements of the intergalactic medium (IGM) temperature provide a potentially powerful constraint on the reionisation history due to the thermal imprint left by the photo-ionisation of neutral hydrogen. However, until recently IGM temperature measurements were limited to redshifts 2 < z < 4.8, restricting the ability of these data to probe the reionisation history at z > 6. In this work, we use recent measurements of the IGM temperature in the near-zones of seven quasars at z ~ 5.8 - 6.4, combined with a semi-numerical model for inhomogeneous reionisation, to establish new constraints on the redshift at which hydrogen reionisation completed. We calibrate the model to reproduce observational constraints on the electron scattering optical depth and the HI photo-ionisation rate, and compute the resulting spatially inhomogeneous temperature distribution at z ~ 6 for a variety of reionisation scenarios. Under standard assumptions for the ionising spectra of population-II sources, the near-zone temperature measurements constrain the redshift by which hydrogen reionisation was complete to be z > 7.9 (6.5) at 68 (95) per cent confidence. We conclude that future temperature measurements around other high redshift quasars will significantly increase the power of this technique, enabling these results to be tightened and generalised.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Very High Density Clumps and Outflowing Winds in QSO Broad-Line Regions

Intercomparison of the spectra of seven high-luminosity quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) shows that there is a gradation of properties in their broad emission-line regions (BELRs) that can be understood as differing mixtures of different gas components. Six of these seven objects have unusually narrow BELR profiles, which greatly facilitates the disentangling of blends and measuring of weak lines. In the QSO 0207 - 398, the BELR is made up of at least three kinematically distinct components; its spectrum is in fact a composite of the spectra of the more homogeneous BELRs in the QSOs at either end of our sequence of properties. This paper focuses on the properties of the line-emitting region in Q0207 - 398 dubbed component "A," which has sharp (FWHM = 1000 km s^-1^), symmetric line profiles centered at zero velocity. We find that these lines are emitted in very dense (n_H_ ~ 10^12.5^ cm^-3^) gas at a characteristic radius r ~ 10^17.7^ cm from the continuum source and which emits a low-ionization spectrum including strong A1 III λ1857. The second component, "B," in Q0207 - 398 is the subject of a companion paper. It is characterized by high-ionization lines such as N V λ1240, O VI λ1034, and C IV λ1549 with profiles that peak at zero velocity but have a blue tail extending out to - 11,000 km s^-1^. It receives about the same incident flux as component A and therefore may lie at the same distance from the continuum source, but it is significantly less dense (n_H_ ~ 10^11^ cm^-3^). The remaining line emission from Q0207 - 398 is attributed to a component "C" which has reasonably broad (FWHM = 2000 km s^-1^), symmetric line profiles centered at zero velocity. Most of the Lyα and C III] λ1909 emission comes from this region, but it also contributes to C IV, N V, and many other lines. The spectrum of component C is in fact quite similar to that of "normal" QSOs. We interpret component A as the dense source for radiatively accelerated, outward flowing gas which we see as component B. Component A may consist of the ablated atmospheres of stars which have strayed too close to the QSO nucleus. In addition, component A's velocity width is essentially the same as that of the stellar population in the nucleus of M87. From the radius and velocity, we infer the presence of a central mass of only 10^7^-10^8^ M_sun_, if we are measuring virial motions and if the ionizing continuum is isotropic. An alternate possibility is that the narrow single-peaked component A profile comes from a rotating torus/accretion disk, probably seen face-on, in which case it is impossible to measure the central mass. We discuss the similarity between Mg II-type broad absorption line (BAL) QSOs and Q0207 - 398, which does not have BALs. In fact, the two Mg II-type BAL objects in our sample have spectra almost exactly like that of Q0207 - 398, except that component B is seen in absorption rather than in emission.Astronom

Maternal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and the secondary sex ratio: an occupational cohort study

Though commercial production of polychlorinated biphenyls was banned in the United States in 1977, exposure continues due to their environmental persistence. Several studies have examined the association between environmental polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and modulations of the secondary sex ratio, with conflicting results. Our objective was to evaluate the association between maternal preconceptional occupational polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and the secondary sex ratio. We examined primipara singleton births of 2595 women, who worked in three capacitor plants at least one year during the period polychlorinated biphenyls were used. Cumulative estimated maternal occupational polychlorinated biphenyl exposure at the time of the infant's conception was calculated from plant-specific job-exposure matrices. A logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between maternal polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and male sex at birth (yes/no). Maternal body mass index at age 20, smoking status, and race did not vary between those occupationally exposed and those unexposed before the child's conception. Polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed mothers were, however, more likely to have used oral contraceptives and to have been older at the birth of their first child than non-occupationally exposed women. Among 1506 infants liveborn to polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed primiparous women, 49.8% were male; compared to 49.9% among those not exposed (n = 1089). Multivariate analyses controlling for mother's age and year of birth found no significant association between the odds of a male birth and mother's cumulative estimated polychlorinated biphenyl exposure to time of conception. Based on these data, we find no evidence of altered sex ratio among children born to primiparous polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed female workers

TANAMI blazars in the IceCube PeV-neutrino fields

The IceCube Collaboration has announced the discovery of a neutrino flux in excess of the atmospheric background. Owing to the steeply falling atmospheric background spectrum, events at PeV energies most likely have an extraterrestrial origin. We present the multiwavelength properties of the six radio-brightest blazars that are positionally coincident with these events using contemporaneous data of the TANAMI blazar sample, including high-resolution images and spectral energy distributions. Assuming the X-ray to γ-ray emission originates in the photoproduction of pions by accelerated protons, the integrated predicted neutrino luminosity of these sources is high enough to explain the two detected PeV events

Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War

Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These “adaptive advantages” of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today

Pyrosequencing-Based Comparative Genome Analysis of Vibrio vulnificus Environmental Isolates

Between 1996 and 2006, the US Centers for Disease Control reported that the only category of food-borne infections increasing in frequency were those caused by members of the genus Vibrio. The Gram-negative bacterium Vibrio vulnificus is a ubiquitous inhabitant of estuarine waters, and is the number one cause of seafood-related deaths in the US. Many V. vulnificus isolates have been studied, and it has been shown that two genetically distinct subtypes, distinguished by 16S rDNA and other gene polymorphisms, are associated predominantly with either environmental or clinical isolation. While local genetic differences between the subtypes have been probed, only the genomes of clinical isolates have so far been completely sequenced. In order to better understand V. vulnificus as an agent of disease and to identify the molecular components of its virulence mechanisms, we have completed whole genome shotgun sequencing of three diverse environmental genotypes using a pyrosequencing approach. V. vulnificus strain JY1305 was sequenced to a depth of 33×, and strains E64MW and JY1701 were sequenced to lesser depth, covering approximately 99.9% of each genome. We have performed a comparative analysis of these sequences against the previously published sequences of three V. vulnificus clinical isolates. We find that the genome of V. vulnificus is dynamic, with 1.27% of genes in the C-genotype genomes not found in the E- genotype genomes. We identified key genes that differentiate between the genomes of the clinical and environmental genotypes. 167 genes were found to be specifically associated with environmental genotypes and 278 genes with clinical genotypes. Genes specific to the clinical strains include components of sialic acid catabolism, mannitol fermentation, and a component of a Type IV secretory pathway VirB4, as well as several other genes with potential significance for human virulence. Genes specific to environmental strains included several that may have implications for the balance between self-preservation under stress and nutritional competence

Do computerised clinical decision support systems for prescribing change practice? A systematic review of the literature (1990-2007)

Computerised clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) are used widely to improve quality of care and patient outcomes. This systematic review evaluated the impact of CDSSs in targeting specific aspects of prescribing, namely initiating, monitoring and stopping therapy. We also examined the influence of clinical setting (institutional vs ambulatory care), system- or user-initiation of CDSS, multi-faceted vs stand alone CDSS interventions and clinical target on practice changes in line with the intent of the CDSS. We searched Medline, Embase and PsychINFO for publications from 1990-2007 detailing CDSS prescribing interventions. Pairs of independent reviewers extracted the key features and prescribing outcomes of methodologically adequate studies (experiments and strong quasi-experiments). 56 studies met our inclusion criteria, 38 addressing initiating, 23 monitoring and three stopping therapy. At the time of initiating therapy, CDSSs appear to be somewhat more effective after, rather than before, drug selection has occurred (7/12 versus 12/26 studies reporting statistically significant improvements in favour of CDSSs on = 50% of prescribing outcomes reported). CDSSs also appeared to be effective for monitoring therapy, particularly using laboratory test reminders (4/7 studies reporting significant improvements in favour of CDSSs on the majority of prescribing outcomes). None of the studies addressing stopping therapy demonstrated impacts in favour of CDSSs over comparators. The most consistently effective approaches used system-initiated advice to fine-tune existing therapy by making recommendations to improve patient safety, adjust the dose, duration or form of prescribed drugs or increase the laboratory testing rates for patients on long-term therapy. CDSSs appeared to perform better in institutional compared to ambulatory settings and when decision support was initiated automatically by the system as opposed to user initiation. CDSSs implemented with other strategies such as education were no more successful in improving prescribing than stand alone interventions. Cardiovascular disease was the most studied clinical target but few studies demonstrated significant improvements on the majority of prescribing outcomes. Our understanding of CDSS impacts on specific aspects of the prescribing process remains relatively limited. Future implementation should build on effective approaches including the use of system-initiated advice to address safety issues and improve the monitoring of therapy

Demographic, clinical and antibody characteristics of patients with digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis: data from the DUO Registry

OBJECTIVES: The Digital Ulcers Outcome (DUO) Registry was designed to describe the clinical and antibody characteristics, disease course and outcomes of patients with digital ulcers associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: The DUO Registry is a European, prospective, multicentre, observational, registry of SSc patients with ongoing digital ulcer disease, irrespective of treatment regimen. Data collected included demographics, SSc duration, SSc subset, internal organ manifestations, autoantibodies, previous and ongoing interventions and complications related to digital ulcers. RESULTS: Up to 19 November 2010 a total of 2439 patients had enrolled into the registry. Most were classified as either limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc; 52.2%) or diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc; 36.9%). Digital ulcers developed earlier in patients with dcSSc compared with lcSSc. Almost all patients (95.7%) tested positive for antinuclear antibodies, 45.2% for anti-scleroderma-70 and 43.6% for anticentromere antibodies (ACA). The first digital ulcer in the anti-scleroderma-70-positive patient cohort occurred approximately 5 years earlier than the ACA-positive patient group. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides data from a large cohort of SSc patients with a history of digital ulcers. The early occurrence and high frequency of digital ulcer complications are especially seen in patients with dcSSc and/or anti-scleroderma-70 antibodies