Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion-accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included

Decreasing intensity of open-ocean convection in the Greenland and Iceland seas

The air–sea transfer of heat and fresh water plays a critical role in the global climate system. This is particularly true for the Greenland and Iceland seas, where these fluxes drive ocean convection that contributes to Denmark Strait overflow water, the densest component of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the wintertime retreat of sea ice in the region, combined with different rates of warming for the atmosphere and sea surface of the Greenland and Iceland seas, has resulted in statistically significant reductions of approximately 20% in the magnitude of the winter air–sea heat fluxes since 1979. We also show that modes of climate variability other than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are required to fully characterize the regional air–sea interaction. Mixed-layer model simulations imply that further decreases in atmospheric forcing will exceed a threshold for the Greenland Sea whereby convection will become depth limited, reducing the ventilation of mid-depth waters in the Nordic seas. In the Iceland Sea, further reductions have the potential to decrease the supply of the densest overflow waters to the AMOC

When the optimal is not the best: parameter estimation in complex biological models

Background: The vast computational resources that became available during the past decade enabled the development and simulation of increasingly complex mathematical models of cancer growth. These models typically involve many free parameters whose determination is a substantial obstacle to model development. Direct measurement of biochemical parameters in vivo is often difficult and sometimes impracticable, while fitting them under data-poor conditions may result in biologically implausible values. Results: We discuss different methodological approaches to estimate parameters in complex biological models. We make use of the high computational power of the Blue Gene technology to perform an extensive study of the parameter space in a model of avascular tumor growth. We explicitly show that the landscape of the cost function used to optimize the model to the data has a very rugged surface in parameter space. This cost function has many local minima with unrealistic solutions, including the global minimum corresponding to the best fit. Conclusions: The case studied in this paper shows one example in which model parameters that optimally fit the data are not necessarily the best ones from a biological point of view. To avoid force-fitting a model to a dataset, we propose that the best model parameters should be found by choosing, among suboptimal parameters, those that match criteria other than the ones used to fit the model. We also conclude that the model, data and optimization approach form a new complex system, and point to the need of a theory that addresses this problem more generally

Understanding Urban Demand for Wild Meat in Vietnam: Implications for Conservation Actions

Vietnam is a significant consumer of wildlife, particularly wild meat, in urban restaurant settings. To meet this demand, poaching of wildlife is widespread, threatening regional and international biodiversity. Previous interventions to tackle illegal and potentially unsustainable consumption of wild meat in Vietnam have generally focused on limiting supply. While critical, they have been impeded by a lack of resources, the presence of increasingly organised criminal networks and corruption. Attention is, therefore, turning to the consumer, but a paucity of research investigating consumer demand for wild meat will impede the creation of effective consumer-centred interventions. Here we used a mixed-methods research approach comprising a hypothetical choice modelling survey and qualitative interviews to explore the drivers of wild meat consumption and consumer preferences among residents of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our findings indicate that demand for wild meat is heterogeneous and highly context specific. Wild-sourced, rare, and expensive wild meat-types are eaten by those situated towards the top of the societal hierarchy to convey wealth and status and are commonly consumed in lucrative business contexts. Cheaper, legal and farmed substitutes for wild-sourced meats are also consumed, but typically in more casual consumption or social drinking settings. We explore the implications of our results for current conservation interventions in Vietnam that attempt to tackle illegal and potentially unsustainable trade in and consumption of wild meat and detail how our research informs future consumer-centric conservation actions

Studies on the clinical significance of nonesterified and total cholesterol in urine

Gas-liquid chromatographic determinations of nonesterified and total urinary cholesterol were performed in 137 normals, 264 patients with various internal diseases without evidence of neoplasias or diseases of the kidney or urinary tract, 497 patients with malignancies and 236 patients with diseases of the kidney, urinary tract infections or prostatic adenoma with residual urine. A normal range (mean±2 SD) of 0.2–2.2 mg/24 hours nonesterified cholesterol (NEC) and of 0.3–3.0 mg/24 hours total cholesterol (TC) was calculated. Values of urinary cholesterol excretion were independent of age and sex and did not correlate with cholesterol levels in plasma. Patients with various internal diseases, without evidence of neoplasias nor diseases of the kidney or obstruction of the urinary tract, showed normal urinary cholesterol excretions, as did patients with infections of the urinary tract. However, elevated urinary cholesterol was found in patients with diseases of the kidney or urinary tract obstruction (prostatic adenoma with residual urine), malignant diseases of the urogenital tract and metastasing carcinoma of the breast. In patients with other malignant diseases urinary cholesterol was usually normal. Lesions of the urothelial cell membranes are considered to be the most likely cause of urinary cholesterol hyperexcretion. The clinical value of urinary cholesterol determinations as a possible screening test for urogenital carcinomas in unselected populations is limited by lacking specificity, expensive methodology and low prevalence of the mentioned carcinomas, although elevated urinary cholesterol excretions have been observed in early clinical stages of urogenital cancers

Characterisation of the bacterial and fungal communities associated with different lesion sizes of Dark Spot Syndrome occurring in the Coral Stephanocoenia intersepta

The number and prevalence of coral diseases/syndromes are increasing worldwide. Dark Spot Syndrome (DSS) afflicts numerous coral species and is widespread throughout the Caribbean, yet there are no known causal agents. In this study we aimed to characterise the microbial communities (bacteria and fungi) associated with DSS lesions affecting the coral Stephanocoenia intersepta using nonculture molecular techniques. Bacterial diversity of healthy tissues (H), those in advance of the lesion interface (apparently healthy AH), and three sizes of disease lesions (small, medium, and large) varied significantly (ANOSIM R = 0.052 p,0.001), apart from the medium and large lesions, which were similar in their community profile. Four bacteria fitted into the pattern expected from potential pathogens; namely absent from H, increasing in abundance within AH, and dominant in the lesions themselves. These included ribotypes related to Corynebacterium (KC190237), Acinetobacter (KC190251), Parvularculaceae (KC19027), and Oscillatoria (KC190271). Furthermore, two Vibrio species, a genus including many proposed coral pathogens, dominated the disease lesion and were absent from H and AH tissues, making them candidates as potential pathogens for DSS. In contrast, other members of bacteria from the same genus, such as V. harveyii were present throughout all sample types, supporting previous studies where potential coral pathogens exist in healthy tissues. Fungal diversity varied significantly as well, however the main difference between diseased and healthy tissues was the dominance of one ribotype, closely related to the plant pathogen, Rhytisma acerinum, a known causal agent of tar spot on tree leaves. As the corals’ symbiotic algae have been shown to turn to a darker pigmented state in DSS (giving rise to the syndromes name), the two most likely pathogens are R. acerinum and the bacterium Oscillatoria, which has been identified as the causal agent of the colouration in Black Band Disease, another widespread coral disease

Epidemiology of Subpatent Plasmodium Falciparum Infection: Implications for Detection of Hotspots with Imperfect Diagnostics.

At the local level, malaria transmission clusters in hotspots, which may be a group of households that experience higher than average exposure to infectious mosquitoes. Active case detection often relying on rapid diagnostic tests for mass screen and treat campaigns has been proposed as a method to detect and treat individuals in hotspots. Data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in north-western Tanzania were used to examine the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and the relationship between household exposure and parasite density. Dried blood spots were collected from consenting individuals from four villages during a survey conducted in 2010. These were analysed by PCR for the presence of P. falciparum, with the parasite density of positive samples being estimated by quantitative PCR. Household exposure was estimated using the distance-weighted PCR prevalence of infection. Parasite density simulations were used to estimate the proportion of infections that would be treated using a screen and treat approach with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) compared to targeted mass drug administration (tMDA) and Mass Drug Administration (MDA). Polymerase chain reaction PCR analysis revealed that of the 3,057 blood samples analysed, 1,078 were positive. Mean distance-weighted PCR prevalence per household was 34.5%. Parasite density was negatively associated with transmission intensity with the odds of an infection being subpatent increasing with household exposure (OR 1.09 per 1% increase in exposure). Parasite density was also related to age, being highest in children five to ten years old and lowest in those > 40 years. Simulations of different tMDA strategies showed that treating all individuals in households where RDT prevalence was above 20% increased the number of infections that would have been treated from 43 to 55%. However, even with this strategy, 45% of infections remained untreated. The negative relationship between household exposure and parasite density suggests that DNA-based detection of parasites is needed to provide adequate sensitivity in hotspots. Targeting MDA only to households with RDT-positive individuals may allow a larger fraction of infections to be treated. These results suggest that community-wide MDA, instead of screen and treat strategies, may be needed to successfully treat the asymptomatic, subpatent parasite reservoir and reduce transmission in similar settings

The analysis of European lacquer : optimization of thermochemolysis temperature of natural resins

In order to optimize chromatographic analysis of European lacquer, thermochemolysis temperature was evaluated for the analysis of natural resins. Five main ingredients of lacquer were studied: sandarac, mastic, colophony, Manila copal and Congo copal. For each, five temperature programs were tested: four fixed temperatures (350, 480, 550, 650 degrees C) and one ultrafast thermal desorption (UFD), in which the temperature rises from 350 to 660 degrees C in 1 min. In total, the integrated signals of 27 molecules, partially characterizing the five resins, were monitored to compare the different methods. A compromise between detection of compounds released at low temperatures and compounds formed at high temperatures was searched. 650 degrees C is too high for both groups, 350 degrees C is best for the first, and 550 degrees C for the second. Fixed temperatures of 480 degrees C or UFD proved to be a consensus in order to detect most marker molecules. UFD was slightly better for the molecules released at low temperatures, while 480 degrees C showed best compounds formed at high temperatures

Saccharomyces cerevisiae-based system for studying clustered DNA damages

DNA-damaging agents can induce clustered lesions or multiply damaged sites (MDSs) on the same or opposing DNA strands. In the latter, attempts to repair MDS can generate closely opposed single-strand break intermediates that may convert non-lethal or mutagenic base damage into double-strand breaks (DSBs). We constructed a diploid S. cerevisiae yeast strain with a chromosomal context targeted by integrative DNA fragments carrying different damages to determine whether closely opposed base damages are converted to DSBs following the outcomes of the homologous recombination repair pathway. As a model of MDS, we studied clustered uracil DNA damages with a known location and a defined distance separating the lesions. The system we describe might well be extended to assessing the repair of MDSs with different compositions, and to most of the complex DNA lesions induced by physical and chemical agents