A spatial econometric approach to designing and rating scalable index insurance in the presence of missing data

Index-Based Livestock Insurance has emerged as a promising market-based solution for insuring livestock against drought-related mortality. The objective of this work is to develop an explicit spatial econometric framework to estimate insurable indexes that can be integrated within a general insurance pricing framework. We explore the problem of estimating spatial panel models when there are missing dependent variable observations and cross-sectional dependence, and implement an estimable procedure which employs an iterative method. We also develop an out-of-sample efficient cross-validation mixing method to optimise the degree of index aggregation in the context of spatial index models

“You Might Belong in Gryffindor”: Children’s Courage and Its Relationships to Anxiety Symptoms, Big Five Personality Traits, and Sex Roles

This study describes a first exploration of the construct of courage in youths. Children aged 8–13 years were invited to report on the most courageous action that they had ever performed during their life. In addition, the Courage Measure for Children (CM-C) was construed as an index of children’s level of personal courage, and this scale was administered in two samples of school children (Ns being 168 and 159) along with a number of other questionnaires. Results indicated that children were familiar with the concept of courage as more than 70% reported to have carried out a courageous action during their life. In addition, self-reported courage as indexed by the CM-C was positively correlated with scores on a vignette measure of courage, parent ratings of children’s courage, extraversion, openness/intellect, and a masculine sex role, whereas a negative correlation was observed with anxiety symptoms. The implications of these findings and potential directions for future research are briefly discussed

Index Cohesive Force Analysis Reveals That the US Market Became Prone to Systemic Collapses Since 2002

BACKGROUND: The 2007-2009 financial crisis, and its fallout, has strongly emphasized the need to define new ways and measures to study and assess the stock market dynamics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The S&P500 dynamics during 4/1999-4/2010 is investigated in terms of the index cohesive force (ICF--the balance between the stock correlations and the partial correlations after subtraction of the index contribution), and the Eigenvalue entropy of the stock correlation matrices. We found a rapid market transition at the end of 2001 from a flexible state of low ICF into a stiff (nonflexible) state of high ICF that is prone to market systemic collapses. The stiff state is also marked by strong effect of the market index on the stock-stock correlations as well as bursts of high stock correlations reminiscence of epileptic brain activity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The market dynamical states, stability and transition between economic states was studies using new quantitative measures. Doing so shed new light on the origin and nature of the current crisis. The new approach is likely to be applicable to other classes of complex systems from gene networks to the human brain

Lymph node hemophagocytosis in rickettsial diseases: a pathogenetic role for CD8 T lymphocytes in human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME)?

BACKGROUND: Human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME) and Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) are caused by Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Rickettsia rickettsii, respectively. The pathogenesis of RMSF relates to rickettsia-mediated vascular injury, but it is unclear in HME. METHODS: To study histopathologic responses in the lymphatic system for correlates of immune injury, lymph nodes from patients with HME (n = 6) and RMSF (n = 5) were examined. H&E-stained lymph node tissues were examined for five histopathologic features, including hemophagocytosis, cellularity, necrosis, and vascular congestion and edema. The relative proportions of CD68 macrophages, CD8 and CD4 T lymphocytes, and CD20 B lymphocytes were evaluated by immunohistochemical staining. RESULTS: Hemophagocytosis was similar in HME and RMSF, and was greater than in control cases (p = .015). Cellularity in HME was not different from controls, whereas RMSF lymph nodes were markedly less cellular (p < 0.002). E. chaffeensis-infected mononuclear phagocytes were infrequent compared to R. rickettsii-infected endothelial cells. More CD8 cells in lymph nodes were observed with HME (p < .001), but no quantitative differences in CD4 lymphocytes, macrophages, or B lymphocytes were identified. CONCLUSION: Hemophagocytosis, CD8 T cell expansion, and the paucity of infected cells in HME, suggest that E. chaffeensis infection leads to macrophage activation and immune-mediated injury

The quest for the solar g modes

Solar gravity modes (or g modes) -- oscillations of the solar interior for which buoyancy acts as the restoring force -- have the potential to provide unprecedented inference on the structure and dynamics of the solar core, inference that is not possible with the well observed acoustic modes (or p modes). The high amplitude of the g-mode eigenfunctions in the core and the evanesence of the modes in the convection zone make the modes particularly sensitive to the physical and dynamical conditions in the core. Owing to the existence of the convection zone, the g modes have very low amplitudes at photospheric levels, which makes the modes extremely hard to detect. In this paper, we review the current state of play regarding attempts to detect g modes. We review the theory of g modes, including theoretical estimation of the g-mode frequencies, amplitudes and damping rates. Then we go on to discuss the techniques that have been used to try to detect g modes. We review results in the literature, and finish by looking to the future, and the potential advances that can be made -- from both data and data-analysis perspectives -- to give unambiguous detections of individual g modes. The review ends by concluding that, at the time of writing, there is indeed a consensus amongst the authors that there is currently no undisputed detection of solar g modes.Comment: 71 pages, 18 figures, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

The genomes of two key bumblebee species with primitive eusocial organization

Background: The shift from solitary to social behavior is one of the major evolutionary transitions. Primitively eusocial bumblebees are uniquely placed to illuminate the evolution of highly eusocial insect societies. Bumblebees are also invaluable natural and agricultural pollinators, and there is widespread concern over recent population declines in some species. High-quality genomic data will inform key aspects of bumblebee biology, including susceptibility to implicated population viability threats. Results: We report the high quality draft genome sequences of Bombus terrestris and Bombus impatiens, two ecologically dominant bumblebees and widely utilized study species. Comparing these new genomes to those of the highly eusocial honeybee Apis mellifera and other Hymenoptera, we identify deeply conserved similarities, as well as novelties key to the biology of these organisms. Some honeybee genome features thought to underpin advanced eusociality are also present in bumblebees, indicating an earlier evolution in the bee lineage. Xenobiotic detoxification and immune genes are similarly depauperate in bumblebees and honeybees, and multiple categories of genes linked to social organization, including development and behavior, show high conservation. Key differences identified include a bias in bumblebee chemoreception towards gustation from olfaction, and striking differences in microRNAs, potentially responsible for gene regulation underlying social and other traits. Conclusions: These two bumblebee genomes provide a foundation for post-genomic research on these key pollinators and insect societies. Overall, gene repertoires suggest that the route to advanced eusociality in bees was mediated by many small changes in many genes and processes, and not by notable expansion or depauperation

The dog as an animal model for DISH?

Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) is a systemic disorder of the axial and peripheral skeleton in humans and has incidentally been described in dogs. The aims of this retrospective radiographic cohort study were to determine the prevalence of DISH in an outpatient population of skeletally mature dogs and to investigate if dogs can be used as an animal model for DISH. The overall prevalence of canine DISH was 3.8% (78/2041). The prevalence of DISH increased with age and was more frequent in male dogs, similar to findings in human studies. In the Boxer breed the prevalence of DISH was 40.6% (28/69). Dog breeds represent closed gene pools with a high degree of familiar relationship and the high prevalence in the Boxer may be indicative of a genetic origin of DISH. It is concluded that the Boxer breed may serve as an animal model for DISH in humans

A Family of Diverse Kunitz Inhibitors from Echinococcus granulosus Potentially Involved in Host-Parasite Cross-Talk

The cestode Echinococcus granulosus, the agent of hydatidosis/echinococcosis, is remarkably well adapted to its definitive host. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying the successful establishment of larval worms (protoscoleces) in the dog duodenum are unknown. With the aim of identifying molecules participating in the E. granulosus-dog cross-talk, we surveyed the transcriptomes of protoscoleces and protoscoleces treated with pepsin at pH 2. This analysis identified a multigene family of secreted monodomain Kunitz proteins associated mostly with pepsin/H+-treated worms, suggesting that they play a role at the onset of infection. We present the relevant molecular features of eight members of the E. granulosus Kunitz family (EgKU-1 – EgKU-8). Although diverse, the family includes three pairs of close paralogs (EgKU-1/EgKU-4; EgKU-3/EgKU-8; EgKU-6/EgKU-7), which would be the products of recent gene duplications. In addition, we describe the purification of EgKU-1 and EgKU-8 from larval worms, and provide data indicating that some members of the family (notably, EgKU-3 and EgKU-8) are secreted by protoscoleces. Detailed kinetic studies with native EgKU-1 and EgKU-8 highlighted their functional diversity. Like most monodomain Kunitz proteins, EgKU-8 behaved as a slow, tight-binding inhibitor of serine proteases, with global inhibition constants (KI*) versus trypsins in the picomolar range. In sharp contrast, EgKU-1 did not inhibit any of the assayed peptidases. Interestingly, molecular modeling revealed structural elements associated with activity in Kunitz cation-channel blockers. We propose that this family of inhibitors has the potential to act at the E. granulosus-dog interface and interfere with host physiological processes at the initial stages of infection