Biodiversity management: application of biodiversity data to inform conservation and industry practice

This submission presents a small selection of my publications on a theme – the application of biodiversity data to inform both conservation and industry practice. The published work presented here demonstrates my ability to generate new biodiversity data, to interpret how to apply those data to improve conservation outcomes, and to apply the same biodiversity data in different ways to reduce industry impacts. The core biodiversity data I use are related to species’ distributions and conservation status, as direct indicators of their irreplaceability and vulnerability. This thesis comprises five peer-reviewed journal papers and a double-blind peer-reviewed published report. Several of these are well-cited: the submitted publications have cumulatively received in excess of 500 citations. My submitted publications have extended understanding in my area of specialisation, and had clear impact on scientific and professional practice. This is demonstrated not only by incorporation of these publications’ findings into conservation action and policy, but also by the professional advice that I am regularly sought to give as a recognised authority in my field to leading global companies, financial institutions, conservation donors and non-governmental organisations. My submitted work is the result of collaborations with leaders in my field. It includes the generation of new knowledge that has directly informed applied conservation of highly iii threatened species in Asia. It contains substantial scientific advances, such as an innovative approach I developed to resolve the long-standing and intractable problem of ‘limits to biodiversity offsets’. In some cases, it has had a clear practical impact on conservation – by guiding substantial donor funding towards, and even greater development investment away from, species and sites of highest global significance to conservation. In other cases, it has demonstrated influence on policy at a global level – such as shaping the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s policy on biodiversity offsets

Flood magnitude-frequency and lithologic control on bedrock river incision in post-orogenic terrain

Mixed bedrock-alluvial rivers - bedrock channels lined with a discontinuous alluvial cover - are key agents in the shaping of mountain belt topography by bedrock fluvial incision. Whereas much research focuses upon the erosional dynamics of such rivers in the context of rapidly uplifting orogenic landscapes, the present study investigates river incision processes in a post-orogenic (cratonic) landscape undergoing extremely low rates of incision (> 5 m/Ma). River incision processes are examined as a function of substrate lithology and the magnitude and frequency of formative flows along Sandy Creek gorge, a mixed bedrock-alluvial stream in arid SE-central Australia. Incision is focused along a bedrock channel with a partial alluvial cover arranged into riffle-pool macrobedforms that reflect interactions between rock structure and large-flood hydraulics. Variations in channel width and gradient determine longitudinal trends in mean shear stress (τb) and therefore also patterns of sediment transport and deposition. A steep and narrow, non-propagating knickzone (with 5% alluvial cover) coincides with a resistant quartzite unit that subdivides the gorge into three reaches according to different rock erodibility and channel morphology. The three reaches also separate distinct erosional styles: bedrock plucking (i.e. detachment-limited erosion) prevails along the knickzone, whereas along the upper and lower gorge rock incision is dependent upon large formative floods exceeding critical erosion thresholds (τc) for coarse boulder deposits that line 70% of the channel thalweg (i.e. transport-limited erosion). The mobility of coarse bed materials (up to 2 m diameter) during late Holocene palaeofloods of known magnitude and age is evaluated using step-backwater flow modelling in conjunction with two selective entrainment equations. A new approach for quantifying the formative flood magnitude in mixed bedrock-alluvial rivers is described here based on the mobility of a key coarse fraction of the bed materials; in this case the d84 size fraction. A 350 m3/s formative flood fully mobilises the coarse alluvial cover with τb200-300 N/m2 across the upper and lower gorge riffles, peaking over 500 N/m2 in the knickzone. Such floods have an annual exceedance probability much less than 10- 2 and possibly as low as 10- 3. The role of coarse alluvial cover in the gorge is discussed at two scales: (1) modulation of bedrock exposure at the reach-scale, coupled with adjustment to channel width and gradient, accommodates uniform incision across rocks of different erodibility in steady-state fashion; and (2) at the sub-reach scale where coarse boulder deposits (corresponding to <i>τ</i><sub>b</sub> minima) cap topographic convexities in the rock floor, thereby restricting bedrock incision to rare large floods. While recent studies postulate that decreasing uplift rates during post-orogenic topographic decay might drive a shift to transport-limited conditions in river networks, observations here and elsewhere in post-orogenic settings suggest, to the contrary, that extremely low erosion rates are maintained with substantial bedrock channel exposure. Although bed material mobility is known to be rate-limiting for bedrock river incision under low sediment flux conditions, exactly how a partial alluvial cover might be spatially distributed to either optimise or impede the rate of bedrock incision is open to speculation. Observations here suggest that the small volume of very stable bed materials lining Sandy Creek gorge is distributed so as to minimise the rate of bedrock fluvial incision over time

Mediators and Moderators of Parental Involvement on Substance Use: A National Study of Adolescents

Current social developmental theories of drug use often incorporate mediation processes, but it is generally unknown whether these mediation processes generalize across ethnicity and gender. In the present study, we developed a mediation model of substance use based on current theory and research and then tested the extent to which the model was moderated by gender and ethnicity (African American, European American, and Hispanic American), separately for 8th and 10th graders. The respondents were adolescents from the 1994, 1995, and 1996 cohorts of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, which conducts yearly in-school surveys with nationally representative samples. Multi-group, structural equation modeling (SEM) results indicated much similarity across gender and ethnicity for school success and time spent with friends as partial mediators of risk taking and parental involvement on drug use (controlling for parental education). However, there were some differences in the magnitude of indirect effects of parental involvement and risk taking on substance use for 8th-grade African American girls. Discussion focuses on the potential success of prevention efforts across different ethnicities and gender that target parent–child relationship improvement and risk taking, and considers possible culture- and gender-specific issues.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45503/1/11121_2005_Article_19.pd

Routine Antenatal Anti-D Prophylaxis in Women Who Are Rh(D) Negative: Meta-Analyses Adjusted for Differences in Study Design and Quality

Background: To estimate the effectiveness of routine antenatal anti-D prophylaxis for preventing sensitisation in pregnant Rhesus negative women, and to explore whether this depends on the treatment regimen adopted. Methods: Ten studies identified in a previous systematic literature search were included. Potential sources of bias were systematically identified using bias checklists, and their impact and uncertainty were quantified using expert opinion. Study results were adjusted for biases and combined, first in a random-effects meta-analysis and then in a random-effects metaregression analysis. Results: In a conventional meta-analysis, the pooled odds ratio for sensitisation was estimated as 0.25 (95 % CI 0.18, 0.36), comparing routine antenatal anti-D prophylaxis to control, with some heterogeneity (I 2 = 19%). However, this naïve analysis ignores substantial differences in study quality and design. After adjusting for these, the pooled odds ratio for sensitisation was estimated as 0.31 (95 % CI 0.17, 0.56), with no evidence of heterogeneity (I 2 = 0%). A meta-regression analysis wa

A Comparative Exploration of Community Pharmacists' Views on the Nature and Management of Over-the-Counter (OTC) and Prescription Codeine Misuse in Three Regulatory Regimes: Ireland, South Africa and the United Kingdom

Misuse of codeine containing preparations is a public health concern given the potential for associated harms and dependence. This study explores the perspectives of community pharmacists in three regulatory regimes on issues of customer misuse of over-the-counter (OTC) and prescribed codeine. A qualitative design comprising six focus groups (n = 45) was conducted in Ireland, United Kingdom, South Africa. Transcripts were analysed using the constant comparative method of content analysis. Pharmacists described popular codeine-containing products and the need for improved medicine information and warning labels. Issues around legitimate availability of codeine and regulatory status; presence of therapeutic need; difficulties in customer–pharmacist communication; business environments and retail focus were raised. Participants also discussed how they identified customers potentially misusing codeine and difficulties in relationships between pharmacists and prescribers. A number of recommendations were put forward as ways to manage the issues. The study highlights the difficulties encountered by community pharmacists operating under various regulatory regimes when supplying codeine containing preparations in negotiating patient awareness and compliance and potential ways to deal with misuse and dependence

Predicted distribution of the Sunda clouded leopard Neofelis diardi (Mammalia: Carnivora: Felidae) on Borneo

The Sunda clouded leopard Neofelis diardi is a medium sized (15–25 kg) cat, found only on the Sundaic islands of Borneo and Sumatra. In recent years intensive camera-trapping surveys in Borneo have begun to shed light on the habitat associations and basic ecology of this elusive wild cat, but its distribution on an island-wide scale remains very poorly known. Such information is an essential element in the assessment of the Sunda clouded leopard’s conservation status and in the development of conservation action. In this paper we use MaxEnt niche distribution modelling to make predictions regarding the current distribution of this cat on Borneo. We collected a total of 259 occurrence records for the Sunda clouded leopard, stemming from all Bornean regions apart from Brunei and South Kalimantan, of which 48 (Balanced Model) or 94 (Spatial Filtering Model) were used in our modelling. Our habitat suitability model suggests that this species has a widespread distribution over a large contiguous portion of Borneo. The only exception is South Kalimantan, which is predicted largely to comprise unsuitable habitat. The predicted distribution closely follows the current distribution of little-encroached forest on Borneo (including selectively logged and unlogged areas). The species is notably predicted to be absent from the extensive areas of oil palm plantation, particularly in much of the low-lying coastal land. The predicted range encompasses a large proportion of the existing and proposed protected area network on Borneo. We highlight the priority areas for the conservation of the Sunda clouded leopard in Borneo based on our predicted distribution

Anti-phospholipid human monoclonal antibodies inhibit CCR5-tropic HIV-1 and induce β-chemokines

Traditional antibody-mediated neutralization of HIV-1 infection is thought to result from the binding of antibodies to virions, thus preventing virus entry. However, antibodies that broadly neutralize HIV-1 are rare and are not induced by current vaccines. We report that four human anti-phospholipid monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) (PGN632, P1, IS4, and CL1) inhibit HIV-1 CCR5-tropic (R5) primary isolate infection of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) with 80% inhibitory concentrations of <0.02 to ∼10 µg/ml. Anti-phospholipid mAbs inhibited PBMC HIV-1 infection in vitro by mechanisms involving binding to monocytes and triggering the release of MIP-1α and MIP-1β. The release of these β-chemokines explains both the specificity for R5 HIV-1 and the activity of these mAbs in PBMC cultures containing both primary lymphocytes and monocytes

A Directed Molecular Evolution Approach to Improved Immunogenicity of the HIV-1 Envelope Glycoprotein

A prophylactic vaccine is needed to slow the spread of HIV-1 infection. Optimization of the wild-type envelope glycoproteins to create immunogens that can elicit effective neutralizing antibodies is a high priority. Starting with ten genes encoding subtype B HIV-1 gp120 envelope glycoproteins and using in vitro homologous DNA recombination, we created chimeric gp120 variants that were screened for their ability to bind neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. Hundreds of variants were identified with novel antigenic phenotypes that exhibit considerable sequence diversity. Immunization of rabbits with these gp120 variants demonstrated that the majority can induce neutralizing antibodies to HIV-1. One novel variant, called ST-008, induced significantly improved neutralizing antibody responses when assayed against a large panel of primary HIV-1 isolates. Further study of various deletion constructs of ST-008 showed that the enhanced immunogenicity results from a combination of effective DNA priming, an enhanced V3-based response, and an improved response to the constant backbone sequences

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (>= 65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45.8 (95% uncertainty interval 44.2-47.5) in 1990 to 60.3 (58.7-61.9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2.6% [1.9-3.3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0.79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388.9 million (358.6-421.3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3.1 billion (3.0-3.2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968.1 million [903.5-1040.3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC