Progress in climate change adaptation research

The scientific literature on climate change adaptation has become too large to assess manually. Beyond standard scientometrics, questions about if and how the field is progressing thus remain largely unanswered. Here we provide a novel, inquisitive, computer-assisted evidence mapping methodology that combines expert interviews (n = 26) and structural topic modelling to evaluate open-ended research questions on progress in the field. We apply this to 62 191 adaptation-relevant scientific publications (1988–2020), selected through supervised machine learning from a comprehensive climate change query. Comparing the literature to key benchmarks of mature adaptation research, our findings align with trends in the adaptation literature observed by most experts: the field is maturing, growing rapidly, and diversifying, with social science and implementation topics arising next to the still-dominant natural sciences and impacts-focused research. Formally assessing the representativeness of IPCC citations, we find evidence of a delay effect for fast-growing areas of research like adaptation strategies and governance. Similarly, we show significant topic biases by geographic location: especially disaster and development-related topics are often studied in Southern countries by authors from the North, while Northern countries dominate governance topics. Moreover, there is a general paucity of research in some highly vulnerable countries. Experts lastly signal a need for meaningful stakeholder involvement. Expanding on the methods presented here would aid the comprehensive and transparent monitoring of adaptation research. For the evidence synthesis community, our methodology provides an example of how to move beyond the descriptive towards the inquisitive and formally evaluating research questions

Diminished temperature and vegetation seasonality over northern high latitudes

Global temperature is increasing, especially over northern lands (>50° N), owing to positive feedbacks1. As this increase is most pronounced in winter, temperature seasonality (ST)—conventionally defined as the difference between summer and winter temperatures—is diminishing over time2, a phenomenon that is analogous to its equatorward decline at an annual scale. The initiation, termination and performance of vegetation photosynthetic activity are tied to threshold temperatures3. Trends in the timing of these thresholds and cumulative temperatures above them may alter vegetation productivity, or modify vegetation seasonality (SV), over time. The relationship between ST and SV is critically examined here with newly improved ground and satellite data sets. The observed diminishment of ST and SV is equivalent to 4° and 7° (5° and 6°) latitudinal shift equatorward during the past 30 years in the Arctic (boreal) region. Analysis of simulations from 17 state-of-the-art climate models4 indicates an additional STdiminishment equivalent to a 20° equatorward shift could occur this century. How SV will change in response to such large projected ST declines and the impact this will have on ecosystem services5 are not well understood. Hence the need for continued monitoring6 of northern lands as their seasonal temperature profiles evolve to resemble thosefurther south.Lopullinen vertaisarvioitu käsikirjoitu

A reconciliation of empirical and mechanistic models of the air-sea gas transfer velocity

Models of the air-sea transfer velocity of gases may be either empirical or mechanistic. Extrapolations of empirical models to an unmeasured gas or to another water temperature can be erroneous if the basis of that extrapolation is flawed. This issue is readily demonstrated for the most well-known empirical gas transfer velocity models where the influence of bubble-mediated transfer, which can vary between gases, is not explicitly accounted for. Mechanistic models are hindered by an incomplete knowledge of the mechanisms of air-sea gas transfer. We describe a hybrid model that incorporates a simple mechanistic view—strictly enforcing a distinction between direct and bubble-mediated transfer—but also uses parameterizations based on data from eddy flux measurements of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) to calibrate the model together with dual tracer results to evaluate the model. This model underpins simple algorithms that can be easily applied within schemes to calculate local, regional, or global air-sea fluxes of gases

Melody Processing Characterizes Functional Neuroanatomy in the Aging Brain

The functional neuroanatomical mechanisms underpinning cognition in the normal older brain remain poorly defined, but have important implications for understanding the neurobiology of aging and the impact of neurodegenerative diseases. Auditory processing is an attractive model system for addressing these issues. Here, we used fMRI of melody processing to investigate auditory pattern processing in normal older individuals. We manipulated the temporal (rhythmic) structure and familiarity of melodies in a passive listening, ‘sparse’ fMRI protocol. A distributed cortico-subcortical network was activated by auditory stimulation compared with silence; and within this network, we identified separable signatures of anisochrony processing in bilateral posterior superior temporal lobes; melodic familiarity in bilateral anterior temporal and inferior frontal cortices; and melodic novelty in bilateral temporal and left parietal cortices. Left planum temporale emerged as a ‘hub’ region functionally partitioned for processing different melody dimensions. Activation of Heschl’s gyrus by auditory stimulation correlated with the integrity of underlying cortical tissue architecture, measured using multi-parameter mapping. Our findings delineate neural substrates for analyzing perceptual and semantic properties of melodies in normal aging. Melody (auditory pattern) processing may be a useful candidate paradigm for assessing cerebral networks in the older brain and potentially, in neurodegenerative diseases of later life

How Accessible Was Information about H1N1 Flu? Literacy Assessments of CDC Guidance Documents for Different Audiences

We assessed the literacy level and readability of online communications about H1N1/09 influenza issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the first month of outbreak. Documents were classified as targeting one of six audiences ranging in technical expertise. Flesch-Kincaid (FK) measure assessed literacy level for each group of documents. ANOVA models tested for differences in FK scores across target audiences and over time. Readability was assessed for documents targeting non-technical audiences using the Suitability Assessment of Materials (SAM). Overall, there was a main-effect by audience, F(5, 82) = 29.72, P<.001, but FK scores did not vary over time, F(2, 82) = .34, P>.05. A time-by-audience interaction was significant, F(10, 82) = 2.11, P<.05. Documents targeting non-technical audiences were found to be text-heavy and densely-formatted. The vocabulary and writing style were found to adequately reflect audience needs. The reading level of CDC guidance documents about H1N1/09 influenza varied appropriately according to the intended audience; sub-optimal formatting and layout may have rendered some text difficult to comprehend

Longitudinal monitoring of Ehrlichia ruminantium infection in Gambian lambs and kids by pCS20 PCR and MAP1-B ELISA

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The epidemiology of <it>E. ruminantium </it>infection in extensively managed young animals is not adequately understood. Thus in this study, we monitored the onset (age at first infection) and kinetics of <it>E. ruminantium </it>infection and antibody response in extensively managed newborn lambs and kids at three sites in The Gambia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a nested pCS20 PCR and MAP1-B ELISA in a longitudinal study to monitor the onset (age at first infection) and kinetics of <it>E. ruminantium </it>infection and antibody response respectively, in 77 newborn lambs and kids under a traditional husbandry system at three sites (Kerr Seringe, Keneba, Bansang) in The Gambia where heartwater is known to occur. The animals were monitored for field tick infestation and the comparative performance of the two assays in detecting <it>E. ruminantium </it>infection was also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The infection rate detected by pCS20 PCR varied between 8.6% and 54.8% over the 162-day study period. Nineteen per cent of the animals in week 1 post-partum tested positive by pCS20 PCR with half of these infections (7/14) detected in the first 3 days after birth, suggesting that transmission other than by tick feeding had played a role. The earliest detectable <it>A. variegatum </it>infestation in the animals occurred in week 16 after birth. Antibodies detected by MAP1-B ELISA also varied, between 11.5% and 90%. Although there is considerable evidence that this assay can detect false positives and due to this and other reasons serology is not a reliable predictor of infection at least for heartwater. In contrast to the pCS20 PCR, the serological assay detected the highest proportion of positive animals in week 1 with a gradual decline in seropositivity with increasing age. The pCS20 PCR detected higher <it>E. ruminantium </it>prevalence in the animals with increasing age and both the Spearman's rank test (<it>r</it>_{<it>s </it>}= -0.1512; P = 0.003) and <it>kappa </it>statistic (-0.091 to 0.223) showed a low degree of agreement between the two assays.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The use of pCS20 PCR supported by transmission studies and clinical data could provide more accurate information on heartwater epidemiology in endemic areas and single-occasion testing of an animal may not reveal its true infection status. The view is supported because both the vector and vertical transmission may play a vital role in the epidemiology of heartwater in young small ruminants; the age range of 4 and 12 weeks corresponds to the period of increased susceptibility to heartwater in traditionally managed small ruminants.</p

Functional Evolution of Duplicated Odorant-Binding Protein Genes, Obp57d and Obp57e, in Drosophila

Odorant-binding proteins (OBPs) are extracellular proteins found in insect chemosensilla, where they participate in the sensing of odors, tastes, and pheromones. Although a large number of OBP genes have been identified in insect genomes, their molecular functions and biological roles have been clarified in limited cases. Two OBP genes, Obp57d and Obp57e, were involved in the evolution of host-plant preference in Drosophila sechellia. Comparative analyses of the Obp57d/e genomic sequences from 27 closely related species suggested that the two genes arose by tandem gene duplication and functionally diverged from each other. In this study, the functional evolution of Obp57d and Obp57e was examined by in vitro binding assays using recombinant proteins synthesized in a bacterial system. Compared to the ancestral Dpse\OBP57de, Dmel\OBP57d was more specialized to tridecanoic acid while Dmel\OBP57e was generalized regarding their binding affinity, suggesting that the two OBP genes underwent subfunctionalization and neofunctionalization. A behavioral analysis using knockout flies supported that the biological role is different between OBP57d and OBP57e in vivo. Site-directed mutagenesis of the evolutionarily conserved amino acids revealed that these residues play an important role in protein folding. These findings provide a clue to understanding how the repertoire of OBP genes is maintained in a genome under natural selection