Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Effect of alirocumab on mortality after acute coronary syndromes. An analysis of the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES randomized clinical trial

Background: Previous trials of PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9) inhibitors demonstrated reductions in major adverse cardiovascular events, but not death. We assessed the effects of alirocumab on death after index acute coronary syndrome. Methods: ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) was a double-blind, randomized comparison of alirocumab or placebo in 18 924 patients who had an ACS 1 to 12 months previously and elevated atherogenic lipoproteins despite intensive statin therapy. Alirocumab dose was blindly titrated to target achieved low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) between 25 and 50 mg/dL. We examined the effects of treatment on all-cause death and its components, cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, with log-rank testing. Joint semiparametric models tested associations between nonfatal cardiovascular events and cardiovascular or noncardiovascular death. Results: Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Death occurred in 334 (3.5%) and 392 (4.1%) patients, respectively, in the alirocumab and placebo groups (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.98; P=0.03, nominal P value). This resulted from nonsignificantly fewer cardiovascular (240 [2.5%] vs 271 [2.9%]; HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.05; P=0.15) and noncardiovascular (94 [1.0%] vs 121 [1.3%]; HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59 to 1.01; P=0.06) deaths with alirocumab. In a prespecified analysis of 8242 patients eligible for ≥3 years follow-up, alirocumab reduced death (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.94; P=0.01). Patients with nonfatal cardiovascular events were at increased risk for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular deaths (P<0.0001 for the associations). Alirocumab reduced total nonfatal cardiovascular events (P<0.001) and thereby may have attenuated the number of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular deaths. A post hoc analysis found that, compared to patients with lower LDL-C, patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dL (2.59 mmol/L) had a greater absolute risk of death and a larger mortality benefit from alirocumab (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.90; Pinteraction=0.007). In the alirocumab group, all-cause death declined wit h achieved LDL-C at 4 months of treatment, to a level of approximately 30 mg/dL (adjusted P=0.017 for linear trend). Conclusions: Alirocumab added to intensive statin therapy has the potential to reduce death after acute coronary syndrome, particularly if treatment is maintained for ≥3 years, if baseline LDL-C is ≥100 mg/dL, or if achieved LDL-C is low. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01663402

Disentangling regional and local tree diversity in the Amazon

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordWe analyzed the most extensive data set of tree inventory plots spread over the complete Amazon basin and Guiana shield. We aimed to separate the regional and local tree alpha‐diversity to investigate the drivers of diversity at the relevant scale. Our results are consistent with the partitioning of total tree alpha‐diversity into regional and local components, which are controlled by evolutionary‐ and ecological processes, respectively. Regional diversity is correlated with palaeo‐climatic stability (31%), and long‐term large‐scale ecosystem dynamics (14%), as represented by the age of the geological formation. Both mechanisms contribute to high diversity in the central to western Amazon. Actual rainfall seasonality is correlated with regional tree diversity to a certain extent (19%), but we argue that this is of little consequence for the evolutionary drivers of the regional species pool. Frequency of disturbance is the main process driving local diversity, although its explanatory power is relatively small (17%).The first author was supported by PAN‐AMAZONIA project, Inst. Internacional de Educação do Brasil (BECA program) and Conselho Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (CNPq – Brazil)

Risk categorization using New American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for cholesterol management and its relation to alirocumab treatment following acute coronary syndromes

Background: The 2018 US cholesterol management guidelines recommend additional lipid-lowering therapies for secondary prevention in patients with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥70 mg/dL or non−high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥100 mg/dL despite maximum tolerated statin therapy. Such patients are considered at very high risk (VHR) based on a history of >1 major atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event or a single ASCVD event and multiple high-risk conditions. We investigated the association of US guideline-defined risk categories with the occurrence of ischemic events after acute coronary syndrome and reduction of those events by alirocumab, a PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) inhibitor. Methods: In the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab), patients with recent acute coronary syndrome and residual dyslipidemia despite optimal statin therapy were randomly assigned to alirocumab or placebo. The primary trial outcome (major adverse cardiovascular events, ie, coronary heart disease death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina) was examined according to American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association risk category. Results: Of 18 924 participants followed for a median of 2.8 years, 11 935 (63.1%) were classified as VHR: 4450 (37.3%) had multiple prior ASCVD events and 7485 (62.7%) had 1 major ASCVD event and multiple high-risk conditions. Major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 14.4% of placebo-treated patients at VHR versus 5.6% of those not at VHR. In the VHR category, major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 20.4% with multiple prior ASCVD events versus 10.7% with 1 ASCVD event and multiple high-risk conditions. Alirocumab was associated with consistent relative risk reductions in both risk categories (hazard ratio=0.84 for VHR; hazard ratio=0.86 for not VHR; Pinteraction=0.820) and by stratification within the VHR group (hazard ratio=0.86 for multiple prior ASCVD events; hazard ratio=0.82 for 1 major ASCVD event and multiple high-risk conditions; Pinteraction=0.672). The absolute risk reduction for major adverse cardiovascular events with alirocumab was numerically greater (but not statistically different) in the VHR group versus those not at VHR (2.1% versus 0.8%; Pinteraction=0.095) and among patients at VHR with multiple prior ASCVD events versus a single prior ASCVD event (2.4% versus 1.8%; Pinteraction=0.661). Conclusions: The US guideline criteria identify patients with recent acute coronary syndrome and dyslipidemia who are at VHR for recurrent ischemic events and who may derive a larger absolute benefit from treatment with alirocumab. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01663402

Outcomes after perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with proximal femoral fractures: an international cohort study

Objectives Studies have demonstrated high rates of mortality in people with proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, but there is limited published data on the factors that influence mortality for clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. This study aims to report the 30-day mortality associated with perioperative infection of patients undergoing surgery for proximal femoral fractures and to examine the factors that influence mortality in a multivariate analysis. Setting Prospective, international, multicentre, observational cohort study. Participants Patients undergoing any operation for a proximal femoral fracture from 1 February to 30 April 2020 and with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection (either 7 days prior or 30-day postoperative). Primary outcome 30-day mortality. Multivariate modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality. Results This study reports included 1063 patients from 174 hospitals in 19 countries. Overall 30-day mortality was 29.4% (313/1063). In an adjusted model, 30-day mortality was associated with male gender (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.13, p80 years (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.31, p=0.013), preoperative diagnosis of dementia (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.16, p=0.005), kidney disease (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55, p=0.005) and congestive heart failure (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48, p=0.025). Mortality at 30 days was lower in patients with a preoperative diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.6 (0.42 to 0.85), p=0.004). There was no difference in mortality in patients with an increase to delay in surgery (p=0.220) or type of anaesthetic given (p=0.787). Conclusions Patients undergoing surgery for a proximal femoral fracture with a perioperative infection of SARS-CoV-2 have a high rate of mortality. This study would support the need for providing these patients with individualised medical and anaesthetic care, including medical optimisation before theatre. Careful preoperative counselling is needed for those with a proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, especially those in the highest risk groups. Trial registration number NCT0432364

Preoperative nasopharyngeal swab testing and postoperative pulmonary complications in patients undergoing elective surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Surgical services are preparing to scale up in areas affected by COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the association between preoperative SARS-CoV-2 testing and postoperative pulmonary complications in patients undergoing elective cancer surgery. METHODS: This international cohort study included adult patients undergoing elective surgery for cancer in areas affected by SARS-CoV-2 up to 19 April 2020. Patients suspected of SARS-CoV-2 infection before operation were excluded. The primary outcome measure was postoperative pulmonary complications at 30 days after surgery. Preoperative testing strategies were adjusted for confounding using mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Of 8784 patients (432 hospitals, 53 countries), 2303 patients (26.2 per cent) underwent preoperative testing: 1458 (16.6 per cent) had a swab test, 521 (5.9 per cent) CT only, and 324 (3.7 per cent) swab and CT. Pulmonary complications occurred in 3.9 per cent, whereas SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in 2.6 per cent. After risk adjustment, having at least one negative preoperative nasopharyngeal swab test (adjusted odds ratio 0.68, 95 per cent confidence interval 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.040) was associated with a lower rate of pulmonary complications. Swab testing was beneficial before major surgery and in areas with a high 14-day SARS-CoV-2 case notification rate, but not before minor surgery or in low-risk areas. To prevent one pulmonary complication, the number needed to swab test before major or minor surgery was 18 and 48 respectively in high-risk areas, and 73 and 387 in low-risk areas. CONCLUSION: Preoperative nasopharyngeal swab testing was beneficial before major surgery and in high SARS-CoV-2 risk areas. There was no proven benefit of swab testing before minor surgery in low-risk areas