Quantum Topologically Massive Gravity in de Sitter Space

We consider three dimensional gravity with a positive cosmological constant and non- zero gravitational Chern-Simons term. This theory has inflating de Sitter solutions and local metric degrees of freedom. The Euclidean signature partition function of the theory is evaluated including both perturbative and non-perturbative corrections. The perturbative one-loop correction is computed using heat kernel techniques. The non- perturbative corrections come from gravitational instantons with non-trivial topology which can be enumerated explicitly. We compute the sum over an infinite class of ge- ometries and show that, unlike the case of pure Einstein gravity, the partition function is finite. This demonstrates that the inclusion of non-trivial local degrees of freedom can render the sum over geometries convergent.Comment: 25 pages, 1 figure; v2: minor correction

Quantum Gravity in 2+1 Dimensions: The Case of a Closed Universe

In three spacetime dimensions, general relativity drastically simplifies, becoming a ``topological'' theory with no propagating local degrees of freedom. Nevertheless, many of the difficult conceptual problems of quantizing gravity are still present. In this review, I summarize the rather large body of work that has gone towards quantizing (2+1)-dimensional vacuum gravity in the setting of a spatially closed universe.Comment: 61 pages, draft of review for Living Reviews; comments, criticisms, additions, missing references welcome; v2: minor changes, added reference

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Assessing the value of intangible benefits of property level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) measures

© 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Studies in the UK and elsewhere have identified that flooding can result in diverse impacts, ranging from significant financial costs (tangible) to social (intangible) impacts on households. At the same time, it is now clear that large-scale flood defence schemes are not the panacea to flood risk, and there is an increasing responsibility on property owners to protect their own properties. Hence, there is an emerging expectation for homeowners to take action in the form of investing in property level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) measures to protect their properties. However, hitherto the level of uptake of such measures remains very low. The tangible financial benefits of investing in PLFRA measures are generally well understood and have been demonstrated to be cost beneficial for many properties at risk from frequent flooding. Importantly, these estimates tend to take little account of the value of the intangible benefits of PLFRA measures and therefore may be under estimating their full benefits. There remains a need to develop an improved understanding of these intangible benefits, and this research sets out to bridge this knowledge gap. Based on a synthesis of the literature, the contingent valuation method was selected as a means to value intangible impacts of flooding on households. A questionnaire survey of homeowners affected in the 2007 flooding was employed to elicit willingness to pay (WTP) values to avoid the intangible impacts of flooding on their households. The analysis of the questionnaire survey data revealed that the average WTP per household per year to avoid intangible flood impacts was £653. This therefore represents the value of the intangible benefits of investing in PLFRA measures and is significantly higher than previously estimated. This research builds on previous research in suggesting a higher value to the intangible impacts of flooding on households by assessing wider range of intangible impacts and focussing on more experienced individuals. Furthermore, the research indicates that factors which influence the WTP values were principally stress of flood, worrying about loss of house values, worrying about future flooding and age of respondents, with income showing a weak correlation. The establishment of a new value for the intangible impacts of flooding on households in the UK is helpful in the domain of flood risk management when evaluating the total benefits (tangible and intangible) of investing in flood protection measures, thus providing a robust assessment for decision-making on flood adaptation measures at an individual property level

Screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease: Guidance from a decision model

__Abstract__ Background: Asymptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) is associated with greater risk of acute cardiovascular events. This study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of one time only PAD screening using Ankle Brachial Index (ABI) test and subsequent anti platelet preventive treatment (low dose aspirin or clopidogrel) in individuals at high risk for acute cardiovascular events compared to no screening and no treatment using decision analytic modelling. Methods. A probabilistic Markov model was developed to evaluate the life time cost-effectiveness of the strategy of selective PAD screening and consequent preventive treatment compared to no screening and no preventive treatment. The analysis was conducted from the Dutch societal perspective and to address decision uncertainty, probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results were based on average values of 1000 Monte Carlo simulations and using discount rates of 1.5% and 4% for effects and costs respectively. One way sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the two most influential model parameters affecting model outputs. Then, a two way sensitivity analysis was conducted for combinations of values tested for these two most influential parameters. Results: For the PAD screening strategy, life years and quality adjusted life years gained were 21.79 and 15.66 respectively at a lifetime cost of 26,548 Euros. Compared to no screening and treatment (20.69 life years, 15.58 Quality Adjusted Life Ye

Interaction of Pyrrolobenzodiazepine (PBD) Ligands with Parallel Intermolecular G-Quadruplex Complex Using Spectroscopy and ESI-MS

Studies on ligand interaction with quadruplex DNA, and their role in stabilizing the complex at concentration prevailing under physiological condition, has attained high interest. Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) and spectroscopic studies in solution were used to evaluate the interaction of PBD and TMPyP4 ligands, stoichiometry and selectivity to G-quadruplex DNA. Two synthetic ligands from PBD family, namely pyrene-linked pyrrolo[2,1-c][1,4]benzodiazepine hybrid (PBD1), mixed imine-amide pyrrolobenzodiazepine dimer (PBD2) and 5,10,15,20-tetrakis(N-methyl-4-pyridyl)porphyrin (TMPyP4) were studied. G-rich single-stranded oligonucleotide d(5′GGGGTTGGGG3′) designated as d(T2G8), from the telomeric region of Tetrahymena Glaucoma, was considered for the interaction with ligands. ESI-MS and spectroscopic methods viz., circular dichroism (CD), UV-Visible, and fluorescence were employed to investigate the G-quadruplex structures formed by d(T2G8) sequence and its interaction with PBD and TMPyP4 ligands. From ESI-MS spectra, it is evident that the majority of quadruplexes exist as d(T2G8)2 and d(T2G8)4 forms possessing two to ten cations in the centre, thereby stabilizing the complex. CD band of PBD1 and PBD2 showed hypo and hyperchromicity, on interaction with quadruplex DNA, indicating unfolding and stabilization of quadruplex DNA complex, respectively. UV-Visible and fluorescence experiments suggest that PBD1 bind externally where as PBD2 intercalate moderately and bind externally to G-quadruplex DNA. Further, melting experiments using SYBR Green indicate that PBD1 unfolds and PBD2 stabilizes the G-quadruplex complex. ITC experiments using d(T2G8) quadruplex with PBD ligands reveal that PBD1 and PBD2 prefer external/loop binding and external/intercalative binding to quadruplex DNA, respectively. From experimental results it is clear that the interaction of PBD2 and TMPyP4 impart higher stability to the quadruplex complex

Severity of Depression, Anxious Distress and the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in a Swedish Population-Based Cohort.

Background: Depression is known to be associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the association between depression of varying severity and risk for CVD and to study the effect of concomitant anxious distress on this association. Methods: We utilized data from a longitudinal cohort study of mental health, work and relations among adults (20–64 years), with a total of 10,443 individuals. Depression and anxious distress were assessed using psychiatric rating scales and defined according to DSM-5. Outcomes were register-based and self-reported cardiovascular diseases. Findings: Overall increased odds ratios of 1.5 to 2.6 were seen for the different severity levels of depression, with the highest adjusted OR for moderate depression (OR 2.1 (95% CI 1.3, 3.5). Similar odds ratios were seen for sub-groups of CVD: ischemic/hypertensive heart disease and stroke, 2.4 (95% CI 1.4, 3.9) and OR 2.1 (95%CI 1.2, 3.8) respectively. Depression with anxious distress as a specifier of severity showed OR of 2.1 (95% CI 1.5, 2.9) for CVD. Conclusion: This study found that severity level of depression seems to be of significance for increased risk of CVD among depressed persons, although not in a dose-response manner which might be obscured due to treatment of depression. Further, we found a higher risk of CVD among depressed individuals with symptoms of anxious distress

Simultaneous consumption of pentose and hexose sugars: an optimal microbial phenotype for efficient fermentation of lignocellulosic biomass

Lignocellulosic biomass is an attractive carbon source for bio-based fuel and chemical production; however, its compositional heterogeneity hinders its commercial use. Since most microbes possess carbon catabolite repression (CCR), mixed sugars derived from the lignocellulose are consumed sequentially, reducing the efficacy of the overall process. To overcome this barrier, microbes that exhibit the simultaneous consumption of mixed sugars have been isolated and/or developed and evaluated for the lignocellulosic biomass utilization. Specific strains of Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Zymomonas mobilis have been engineered for simultaneous glucose and xylose utilization via mutagenesis or introduction of a xylose metabolic pathway. Other microbes, such as Lactobacillus brevis, Lactobacillus buchneri, and Candida shehatae possess a relaxed CCR mechanism, showing simultaneous consumption of glucose and xylose. By exploiting CCR-negative phenotypes, various integrated processes have been developed that incorporate both enzyme hydrolysis of lignocellulosic material and mixed sugar fermentation, thereby enabling greater productivity and fermentation efficacy

A framework for the development of a global standardised marine taxon reference image database (SMarTaR-ID) to support image-based analyses

Video and image data are regularly used in the field of benthic ecology to document biodiversity. However, their use is subject to a number of challenges, principally the identification of taxa within the images without associated physical specimens. The challenge of applying traditional taxonomic keys to the identification of fauna from images has led to the development of personal, group, or institution level reference image catalogues of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) or morphospecies. Lack of standardisation among these reference catalogues has led to problems with observer bias and the inability to combine datasets across studies. In addition, lack of a common reference standard is stifling efforts in the application of artificial intelligence to taxon identification. Using the North Atlantic deep sea as a case study, we propose a database structure to facilitate standardisation of morphospecies image catalogues between research groups and support future use in multiple front-end applications. We also propose a framework for coordination of international efforts to develop reference guides for the identification of marine species from images. The proposed structure maps to the Darwin Core standard to allow integration with existing databases. We suggest a management framework where high-level taxonomic groups are curated by a regional team, consisting of both end users and taxonomic experts. We identify a mechanism by which overall quality of data within a common reference guide could be raised over the next decade. Finally, we discuss the role of a common reference standard in advancing marine ecology and supporting sustainable use of this ecosystem

The global burden of cancer 2013 global burden of disease cancer collaboration

Importance Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies. Objective To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013. Evidence Review The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Findings In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries. Conclusions and Relevance Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation