How Systems Analysts Can Provide More Effective Assistance to the Policy Maker

Policy makers do not benefit from advances in (a) systems analysis or (b) judgement and decision theory because neither of these disciplines recognize the incompleteness of its methodology. A complete methodology requires a synthesis of the two. This RM explains why such a synthesis is necessary, describes how it can be achieved, and provides a worked-out example of its application to the problem of changing sources of energy production in the US. The example also illustrates that the linkage of systems analysis and judgement theory provides information that neither discipline can provide separately. Finally, the RM shows that such information is policy relevant and that it provides more effective assistance to the policy maker than does either approach used separately

Erosion-Corrosion in Pipe Flows of Particle-Laden Liquids

The transmission of particle-bearing liquids in pipes has motivated continuing research into erosion mechanisms and the distribution of erosion rates over wetted surfaces. This chapter covers these initiatives with particular reference to erosion-corrosion modelling within bends and straight sections of cylindrical pipes manufactured in a variety of materials and transporting a variety of liquids. Erosion-corrosion modelling techniques such as submerged slurry jets and rotating cylinder electrodes have been used to study factors influencing material degradation. Improvements in computational fluid dynamics (CFD), such as the development of a moving deforming mesh (MDM) have improved the accuracy of CFD models in predicting pipe wall erosion rates. Combined discrete phase tracking approaches such as the CFD-DPM-DEM (discrete phase-discrete element model) have helped improve computational efficiency. Wall impact erosion models are calibrated using laboratory scale tests. Validation of CFD models using full-scale test data is rare, meaning their accuracy is still largely unreported. Material testing has helped to identify the resilience of prospective pipeline materials to erosion-corrosion, while modifications to internal geometry and pipe section have shown potential to improve erosion-corrosion resistance

Capacitated Vehicle Routing with Non-Uniform Speeds

The capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) involves distributing (identical) items from a depot to a set of demand locations, using a single capacitated vehicle. We study a generalization of this problem to the setting of multiple vehicles having non-uniform speeds (that we call Heterogenous CVRP), and present a constant-factor approximation algorithm. The technical heart of our result lies in achieving a constant approximation to the following TSP variant (called Heterogenous TSP). Given a metric denoting distances between vertices, a depot r containing k vehicles with possibly different speeds, the goal is to find a tour for each vehicle (starting and ending at r), so that every vertex is covered in some tour and the maximum completion time is minimized. This problem is precisely Heterogenous CVRP when vehicles are uncapacitated. The presence of non-uniform speeds introduces difficulties for employing standard tour-splitting techniques. In order to get a better understanding of this technique in our context, we appeal to ideas from the 2-approximation for scheduling in parallel machine of Lenstra et al.. This motivates the introduction of a new approximate MST construction called Level-Prim, which is related to Light Approximate Shortest-path Trees. The last component of our algorithm involves partitioning the Level-Prim tree and matching the resulting parts to vehicles. This decomposition is more subtle than usual since now we need to enforce correlation between the size of the parts and their distances to the depot

Patterns of 6-mercaptopurine and azathioprine maintenance therapy among a cohort of commercially insured individuals diagnosed with Crohn's disease in the United States

Background and aims: Thiopurines, including 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) and azathioprine (AZA), are the mainstay of maintenance therapy for Crohn's disease (CD). However, studies examining their effectiveness in routine practice among diverse patient populations are lacking. Among a cohort of new users of 6MP/AZA, we described treatment patterns and changes in subsequent therapy. Methods: Using the Truven Health Analytics databases, we identified all individuals diagnosed with CD and initiating 6-MP/AZA monotherapy from 2001-2008 (n=3,657). We estimated the proportion of CD patients remaining on 6-MP/AZA monotherapy, using Kaplan-Meier methods, and identified predictors of treatment noncontinuation, using multivariable Cox regression. Among the "noncontinuers," we described subsequent patterns of maintenance therapy and summarized the diagnosis and procedure codes and prescription drug claims preceding treatment discontinuation. Results: The 1-year 6-MP/AZA treatment continuation rate was 42%. Children (age ?18 years) and individuals with no prior anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) use were more likely to continue 6-MP/AZA, while those dispensed more (>4) outpatient prescriptions for any drug before initiation of 6-MP/AZA were less likely to continue maintenance treatment. Overall, 1,128 (39%) and 105 (4%) individuals experienced a clinical event potentially indicating active disease or 6-MP/AZA-intolerance prior to discontinuation, respectively. Most patients discontinued therapy; among the remaining patients who failed to continue 6-MP/AZA, most augmented with an anti-TNF. Conclusion: Most patients initiating 6-MP/AZA monotherapy did not continue beyond 1 year. In contrast to trial evidence showing 1-year remission rates of 40%-80%, this study observed a lower effectiveness of 6-MP/AZA treatment, possibly due to differences in disease severity, patient demographics, comorbidity, adherence, and health care utilization

The role of alkalinity generation in controlling the fluxes of CO₂ during exposure and inundation on tidal flats

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), gaseous CO2 and alkalinity fluxes from intertidal sediments were investigated during periods of exposure and inundation, using laboratory core incubations, previously published field data and reactive transport model simulations. In the incubations and previous field data, it was found that during periods of alkalinity production (attributed to the accumulation of reduced sulfur species within the sediment), the flux of DIC out of the sediment was greater during inundation than the gaseous CO2 flux during exposure by a factor of up to 1.8. This finding was supported by computational simulations which indicated that large amounts of sulfate reduction and reduced sulfur burial (FeS) induce an alkalinity flux from the sediment during high tide conditions. Model simulations also found that the amount of reactive Fe in the sediment was a major driver of net alkalinity production. Our finding that CO2 fluxes can be significantly lower than total metabolism during exposure has implications for how total metabolism is quantified on tidal flats

Gravitational waves from eccentric compact binaries: Reduction in signal-to-noise ratio due to nonoptimal signal processing

Inspiraling compact binaries have been identified as one of the most promising sources of gravitational waves for interferometric detectors. Most of these binaries are expected to have circularized by the time their gravitational waves enter the instrument's frequency band. However, the possibility that some of the binaries might still possess a significant eccentricity is not excluded. We imagine a situation in which eccentric signals are received by the detector but not explicitly searched for in the data analysis, which uses exclusively circular waveforms as matched filters. We ascertain the likelihood that these filters, though not optimal, will nevertheless be successful at capturing the eccentric signals. We do this by computing the loss in signal-to-noise ratio incurred when searching for eccentric signals with those nonoptimal filters. We show that for a binary system of a given total mass, this loss increases with increasing eccentricity. We show also that for a given eccentricity, the loss decreases as the total mass is increased.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, ReVTeX; minor changes made after referee's comment

Relativistic Hydrodynamic Evolutions with Black Hole Excision

We present a numerical code designed to study astrophysical phenomena involving dynamical spacetimes containing black holes in the presence of relativistic hydrodynamic matter. We present evolutions of the collapse of a fluid star from the onset of collapse to the settling of the resulting black hole to a final stationary state. In order to evolve stably after the black hole forms, we excise a region inside the hole before a singularity is encountered. This excision region is introduced after the appearance of an apparent horizon, but while a significant amount of matter remains outside the hole. We test our code by evolving accurately a vacuum Schwarzschild black hole, a relativistic Bondi accretion flow onto a black hole, Oppenheimer-Snyder dust collapse, and the collapse of nonrotating and rotating stars. These systems are tracked reliably for hundreds of M following excision, where M is the mass of the black hole. We perform these tests both in axisymmetry and in full 3+1 dimensions. We then apply our code to study the effect of the stellar spin parameter J/M^2 on the final outcome of gravitational collapse of rapidly rotating n = 1 polytropes. We find that a black hole forms only if J/M^2<1, in agreement with previous simulations. When J/M^2>1, the collapsing star forms a torus which fragments into nonaxisymmetric clumps, capable of generating appreciable ``splash'' gravitational radiation.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, submitted to PR

Stress corrosion cracking in Al-Zn-Mg-Cu aluminum alloys in saline environments

Copyright 2013 ASM International. This paper was published in Metallurgical and Materials Transactions A, 44A(3), 1230 - 1253, and is made available as an electronic reprint with the permission of ASM International. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplications of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of this paper are prohibited.Stress corrosion cracking of Al-Zn-Mg-Cu (AA7xxx) aluminum alloys exposed to saline environments at temperatures ranging from 293 K to 353 K (20 °C to 80 °C) has been reviewed with particular attention to the influences of alloy composition and temper, and bulk and local environmental conditions. Stress corrosion crack (SCC) growth rates at room temperature for peak- and over-aged tempers in saline environments are minimized for Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys containing less than ~8 wt pct Zn when Zn/Mg ratios are ranging from 2 to 3, excess magnesium levels are less than 1 wt pct, and copper content is either less than ~0.2 wt pct or ranging from 1.3 to 2 wt pct. A minimum chloride ion concentration of ~0.01 M is required for crack growth rates to exceed those in distilled water, which insures that the local solution pH in crack-tip regions can be maintained at less than 4. Crack growth rates in saline solution without other additions gradually increase with bulk chloride ion concentrations up to around 0.6 M NaCl, whereas in solutions with sufficiently low dichromate (or chromate), inhibitor additions are insensitive to the bulk chloride concentration and are typically at least double those observed without the additions. DCB specimens, fatigue pre-cracked in air before immersion in a saline environment, show an initial period with no detectible crack growth, followed by crack growth at the distilled water rate, and then transition to a higher crack growth rate typical of region 2 crack growth in the saline environment. Time spent in each stage depends on the type of pre-crack (“pop-in” vs fatigue), applied stress intensity factor, alloy chemistry, bulk environment, and, if applied, the external polarization. Apparent activation energies (E a) for SCC growth in Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys exposed to 0.6 M NaCl over the temperatures ranging from 293 K to 353 K (20 °C to 80 °C) for under-, peak-, and over-aged low-copper-containing alloys (~0.8 wt pct), they are typically ranging from 20 to 40 kJ/mol for under- and peak-aged alloys, and based on limited data, around 85 kJ/mol for over-aged tempers. This means that crack propagation in saline environments is most likely to occur by a hydrogen-related process for low-copper-containing Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys in under-, peak- and over-aged tempers, and for high-copper alloys in under- and peak-aged tempers. For over-aged high-copper-containing alloys, cracking is most probably under anodic dissolution control. Future stress corrosion studies should focus on understanding the factors that control crack initiation, and insuring that the next generation of higher performance Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys has similar longer crack initiation times and crack propagation rates to those of the incumbent alloys in an over-aged condition where crack rates are less than 1 mm/month at a high stress intensity factor

The exposure of the hybrid detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a detector for ultra-high energy cosmic rays. It consists of a surface array to measure secondary particles at ground level and a fluorescence detector to measure the development of air showers in the atmosphere above the array. The "hybrid" detection mode combines the information from the two subsystems. We describe the determination of the hybrid exposure for events observed by the fluorescence telescopes in coincidence with at least one water-Cherenkov detector of the surface array. A detailed knowledge of the time dependence of the detection operations is crucial for an accurate evaluation of the exposure. We discuss the relevance of monitoring data collected during operations, such as the status of the fluorescence detector, background light and atmospheric conditions, that are used in both simulation and reconstruction.Comment: Paper accepted by Astroparticle Physic

The Innate Immune Sensor NLRC3 Acts as a Rheostat that Fine-Tunes T Cell Responses in Infection and Autoimmunity

NLRC3 limits inflammatory signaling in myeloid cells, but its role in T cells has been unclear. Uchimura et al. reveal that T cell expression of Nlrc3 restricts autoimmune and virus-specific CD4 + T cell responses by attenuating T cell signaling and metabolic pathways in CD4 + T cells. © 2018 Elsevier Inc.Appropriate immune responses require a fine balance between immune activation and attenuation. NLRC3, a non-inflammasome-forming member of the NLR innate immune receptor family, attenuates inflammation in myeloid cells and proliferation in epithelial cells. T lymphocytes express the highest amounts of Nlrc3 transcript where its physiologic relevance is unknown. We show that NLRC3 attenuated interferon-γ and TNF expression by CD4 + T cells and reduced T helper 1 (Th1) and Th17 cell proliferation. Nlrc3 −/− mice exhibited increased and prolonged CD4 + T cell responses to lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection and worsened experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). These functions of NLRC3 were executed in a T-cell-intrinsic fashion: NLRC3 reduced K63-linked ubiquitination of TNF-receptor-associated factor 6 (TRAF6) to limit NF-κB activation, lowered phosphorylation of eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4E-binding protein 1 (4E-BP1), and diminished glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation. This study reveals an unappreciated role for NLRC3 in attenuating CD4 + T cell signaling and metabolism