Allocation in Practice

How do we allocate scarcere sources? How do we fairly allocate costs? These are two pressing challenges facing society today. I discuss two recent projects at NICTA concerning resource and cost allocation. In the first, we have been working with FoodBank Local, a social startup working in collaboration with food bank charities around the world to optimise the logistics of collecting and distributing donated food. Before we can distribute this food, we must decide how to allocate it to different charities and food kitchens. This gives rise to a fair division problem with several new dimensions, rarely considered in the literature. In the second, we have been looking at cost allocation within the distribution network of a large multinational company. This also has several new dimensions rarely considered in the literature.Comment: To appear in Proc. of 37th edition of the German Conference on Artificial Intelligence (KI 2014), Springer LNC

Perceived Noise Analysis for Offset Jets Applied to Commercial Supersonic Aircraft

A systems analysis was performed with experimental jet noise data, engine/aircraft performance codes and aircraft noise prediction codes to assess takeoff noise levels and mission range for conceptual supersonic commercial aircraft. A parametric study was done to identify viable engine cycles that meet NASA's N+2 goals for noise and performance. Model scale data from offset jets were used as input to the aircraft noise prediction code to determine the expected sound levels for the lateral certification point where jet noise dominates over all other noise sources. The noise predictions were used to determine the optimal orientation of the offset nozzles to minimize the noise at the lateral microphone location. An alternative takeoff procedure called "programmed lapse rate" was evaluated for noise reduction benefits. Results show there are two types of engines that provide acceptable mission range performance; one is a conventional mixed-flow turbofan and the other is a three-stream variable-cycle engine. Separate flow offset nozzles reduce the noise directed toward the thicker side of the outer flow stream, but have less benefit as the core nozzle pressure ratio is reduced. At the systems level for a three-engine N+2 aircraft with full throttle takeoff, there is a 1.4 EPNdB margin to Chapter 3 noise regulations predicted for the lateral certification point (assuming jet noise dominates). With a 10% reduction in thrust just after clearing the runway, the margin increases to 5.5 EPNdB. Margins to Chapter 4 and Chapter 14 levels will depend on the cumulative split between the three certification points, but it appears that low specific thrust engines with a 10% reduction in thrust (programmed lapse rate) can come close to meeting Chapter 14 noise levels. Further noise reduction is possible with engine oversizing and derated takeoff, but more detailed mission studies are needed to investigate the range impacts as well as the practical limits for safety and takeoff regulations

Is Area-Wide Pest Management Useful? The Case of Citrus Greening.

Citrus greening currently poses a severe threat to citrus production worldwide. No treatment or management strategy is yet available to cure the disease. Scientists recommend controlling the vector of the disease, and area-wide pest management has been proposed as a superior alternative to individual pest management. We analyzed a unique dataset of farm-level citrus yields that allowed us to test this hypothesis. We found that yields of blocks located in an area with higher participation in coordinated sprays were 28%, 73% and 98% percent higher in 2012/13, 2013/14, and 2014/15, respectively, compared to the yields of blocks under the same management but located in an area with lower participation; providing evidence on the efficiency of a well-performing pest management area to deal with HLB. However, participation in CHMAs has not been commensurate with this evidence. We present survey data that provide insights about producers’ preferences and attitudes toward the area-wide pest management program. Despite the economic benefit we found area-wide pest management can provide, the strategic uncertainty involved in relying on neighbors seems to impose too high of a cost for most growers, who end up not coordinating sprays

User Centered Cognitive Maps

Two kinds of influence graphs are commonly used in artificial intelligence to modelize influence networks: bayesian networks [Naïm et al., 2004] and cognitive maps [Tolman, 1948]. Influence graphs provide mechanisms to highlight the influence between concepts. Cognitive maps represent a concept by a text and an influence by an arc to which a value is associated

First direct observation of enhanced octupole collectivity in 146Ba

The octupole strength present in the neutron-rich, radiocative nucleus 146Ba has been experimentally determined for the first time using Coulomb excitation. To achieve this, A=146 fission fragments from CARIBU were post-accelerated by the Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System (ATLAS) and impinged on a thin 208Pb target. Using the GRETINA γ-ray spectrometer and the CHICO2 heavy-ion counter, the reduced transition probability B(E3; 3-→0+) was determined as 48(+21-29) W.u. The new result provides further experimental evidence for the presence of a region of octupole deformation surrounding the neutron-rich barium isotopes

Age at symptom onset and death and disease duration in genetic frontotemporal dementia : an international retrospective cohort study

Background: Frontotemporal dementia is a heterogenous neurodegenerative disorder, with about a third of cases being genetic. Most of this genetic component is accounted for by mutations in GRN, MAPT, and C9orf72. In this study, we aimed to complement previous phenotypic studies by doing an international study of age at symptom onset, age at death, and disease duration in individuals with mutations in GRN, MAPT, and C9orf72. Methods: In this international, retrospective cohort study, we collected data on age at symptom onset, age at death, and disease duration for patients with pathogenic mutations in the GRN and MAPT genes and pathological expansions in the C9orf72 gene through the Frontotemporal Dementia Prevention Initiative and from published papers. We used mixed effects models to explore differences in age at onset, age at death, and disease duration between genetic groups and individual mutations. We also assessed correlations between the age at onset and at death of each individual and the age at onset and at death of their parents and the mean age at onset and at death of their family members. Lastly, we used mixed effects models to investigate the extent to which variability in age at onset and at death could be accounted for by family membership and the specific mutation carried. Findings: Data were available from 3403 individuals from 1492 families: 1433 with C9orf72 expansions (755 families), 1179 with GRN mutations (483 families, 130 different mutations), and 791 with MAPT mutations (254 families, 67 different mutations). Mean age at symptom onset and at death was 49\ub75 years (SD 10\ub70; onset) and 58\ub75 years (11\ub73; death) in the MAPT group, 58\ub72 years (9\ub78; onset) and 65\ub73 years (10\ub79; death) in the C9orf72 group, and 61\ub73 years (8\ub78; onset) and 68\ub78 years (9\ub77; death) in the GRN group. Mean disease duration was 6\ub74 years (SD 4\ub79) in the C9orf72 group, 7\ub71 years (3\ub79) in the GRN group, and 9\ub73 years (6\ub74) in the MAPT group. Individual age at onset and at death was significantly correlated with both parental age at onset and at death and with mean family age at onset and at death in all three groups, with a stronger correlation observed in the MAPT group (r=0\ub745 between individual and parental age at onset, r=0\ub763 between individual and mean family age at onset, r=0\ub758 between individual and parental age at death, and r=0\ub769 between individual and mean family age at death) than in either the C9orf72 group (r=0\ub732 individual and parental age at onset, r=0\ub736 individual and mean family age at onset, r=0\ub738 individual and parental age at death, and r=0\ub740 individual and mean family age at death) or the GRN group (r=0\ub722 individual and parental age at onset, r=0\ub718 individual and mean family age at onset, r=0\ub722 individual and parental age at death, and r=0\ub732 individual and mean family age at death). Modelling showed that the variability in age at onset and at death in the MAPT group was explained partly by the specific mutation (48%, 95% CI 35\u201362, for age at onset; 61%, 47\u201373, for age at death), and even more by family membership (66%, 56\u201375, for age at onset; 74%, 65\u201382, for age at death). In the GRN group, only 2% (0\u201310) of the variability of age at onset and 9% (3\u201321) of that of age of death was explained by the specific mutation, whereas 14% (9\u201322) of the variability of age at onset and 20% (12\u201330) of that of age at death was explained by family membership. In the C9orf72 group, family membership explained 17% (11\u201326) of the variability of age at onset and 19% (12\u201329) of that of age at death. Interpretation: Our study showed that age at symptom onset and at death of people with genetic frontotemporal dementia is influenced by genetic group and, particularly for MAPT mutations, by the specific mutation carried and by family membership. Although estimation of age at onset will be an important factor in future pre-symptomatic therapeutic trials for all three genetic groups, our study suggests that data from other members of the family will be particularly helpful only for individuals with MAPT mutations. Further work in identifying both genetic and environmental factors that modify phenotype in all groups will be important to improve such estimates. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, and Alzheimer's Society

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Brain volumetric deficits in MAPT mutation carriers: a multisite study

Objective: MAPT mutations typically cause behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia with or without parkinsonism. Previous studies have shown that symptomatic MAPT mutation carriers have frontotemporal atrophy, yet studies have shown mixed results as to whether presymptomatic carriers have low gray matter volumes. To elucidate whether presymptomatic carriers have lower structural brain volumes within regions atrophied during the symptomatic phase, we studied a large cohort of MAPT mutation carriers using a voxelwise approach. Methods: We studied 22 symptomatic carriers (age 54.7 ± 9.1, 13 female) and 43 presymptomatic carriers (age 39.2 ± 10.4, 21 female). Symptomatic carriers’ clinical syndromes included: behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (18), an amnestic dementia syndrome (2), Parkinson’s disease (1), and mild cognitive impairment (1). We performed voxel-based morphometry on T1 images and assessed brain volumetrics by clinical subgroup, age, and mutation subtype. Results: Symptomatic carriers showed gray matter atrophy in bilateral frontotemporal cortex, insula, and striatum, and white matter atrophy in bilateral corpus callosum and uncinate fasciculus. Approximately 20% of presymptomatic carriers had low gray matter volumes in bilateral hippocampus, amygdala, and lateral temporal cortex. Within these regions, low gray matter volume