Stranded superconducting cable of improved design

High-current cable developed in liquid helium cooled magnets uses aluminum wire interspersed with the superconductor strands. The aluminum maintains higher electrical conductivity, is light in weight, and has low thermal capacity

Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change

We compare predictions of a simple process-based crop model (Soltani and Sinclair 2012), a simple statistical model (Schlenker and Roberts 2009), and a combination of both models to actual maize yields on a large, representative sample of farmer-managed fields in the Corn Belt region of the United States. After statistical post-model calibration, the process model (Simple Simulation Model, or SSM) predicts actual outcomes slightly better than the statistical model, but the combined model performs significantly better than either model. The SSM, statistical model and combined model all show similar relationships with precipitation, while the SSM better accounts for temporal patterns of precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. The statistical and combined models show a more negative impact associated with extreme heat for which the process model does not account. Due to the extreme heat effect, predicted impacts under uniform climate change scenarios are considerably more severe for the statistical and combined models than for the process-based model

Fast Plasma Investigation for MMS: Simulation of the Burst Triggering System

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission will study small-scale reconnection structures and their rapid motions from closely spaced platforms using instruments capable of high angular, energy, and time resolution measurements. To meet these requirements, the Fast Plasma Instrument (FPI) consists of eight (8) identical half top-hat electron sensors and eight (8) identical ion sensors and an Instrument Data Processing Unit (IDPU). The sensors (electron or ion) are grouped into pairs whose 6 degree x 180 degree fields-of-view (FOV) are set 90 degrees apart. Each sensor is equipped with electrostatic aperture steering to allow the sensor to scan a 45 degree x 180 degree fan about the its nominal viewing (0 deflection) direction. Each pair of sensors, known as the Dual Electron Spectrometer (DES) and the Dual Ion Spectrometer (DIS), occupies a quadrant on the MMS spacecraft and the combination of the eight electron/ion sensors, employing aperture steering, image the full-sky every 30-ms (electrons) and 150-ms (ions), respectively. To probe the diffusion regions of reconnection, the highest temporal/spatial resolution mode of FPI results in the DES complement of a given spacecraft generating 6.5-Mb (raised dot) per second of electron data while the DIS generates 1.1-Mb (raised dot) per second of ion data yielding an FPI total data rate of 6.6-Mb (raised dot) per second. The FPI electron/ion data is collected by the IDPU then transmitted to the Central Data Instrument Processor (CIDP) on the spacecraft for science interest ranking. Only data sequences that contain the greatest amount of temporal/spatial structure will be intelligently down-linked by the spacecraft. This requires a data ranking process known as the burst trigger system. The burst trigger system uses pseudo physical quantities to approximate the local plasma environments. As each pseudo quantity will have a different value, a set of two scaling factors is employed for each pseudo term. These pseudo quantities are then combined at the instrument, spacecraft, and observatory level leading to a final ranking of data based on expected scientific interest. Here, we present simulations of the fixed point burst trigger system for the FPI. A variety of data sets based on previous mission data as well as analytical formulations are tested. Comparisons of floating point calculations versus the fixed point hardware simulation are shown. Analysis of the potential sources of error from overflows, quantization, etc. are examined and mitigation methods are presented. Finally a series of calibration curves are presented, showing the expected error in pseudo quantities based solely on the scale parameters chosen and the expected data range. We conclude with a presentation of the current base-lined FPI burst trigger approach

Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model

Understanding the relationship between climate and crop productivity is a key component of projections of future food production, and hence assessments of food security. Climate models and crop yield datasets have errors, but the effects of these errors on regional scale crop models is not well categorized and understood. In this study we compare the effect of synthetic errors in temperature and precipitation observations on the hindcast skill of a process-based crop model and a statistical crop model. We find that errors in temperature data have a significantly stronger influence on both models than errors in precipitation. We also identify key differences in the responses of these models to different types of input data error. Statistical and process-based model responses differ depending on whether synthetic errors are overestimates or underestimates. We also investigate the impact of crop yield calibration data on model skill for both models, using datasets of yield at three different spatial scales. Whilst important for both models, the statistical model is more strongly influenced by crop yield scale than the process-based crop model. However, our results question the value of high resolution yield data for improving the skill of crop models; we find a focus on accuracy to be more likely to be valuable. For both crop models, and for all three spatial scales of yield calibration data, we found that model skill is greatest where growing area is above 10-15 %. Thus information on area harvested would appear to be a priority for data collection efforts. These results are important for three reasons. First, understanding how different crop models rely on different characteristics of temperature, precipitation and crop yield data allows us to match the model type to the available data. Second, we can prioritize where improvements in climate and crop yield data should be directed. Third, as better climate and crop yield data becomes available, we can predict how crop model skill should improve

Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering

It has been proposed that growing crop varieties with higher canopy albedo would lower summer-time temperatures over North America and Eurasia and provide a partial mitigation of global warming ('bio-geoengineering') (Ridgwell et al 2009 Curr. Biol. 19 1–5). Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere–vegetation model (HadCM3) with prescribed agricultural regions, to investigate to what extent the regional effectiveness of crop albedo bio-geoengineering might be influenced by a progressively warming climate as well as assessing the impacts on regional hydrological cycling and primary productivity. Consistent with previous analysis, we find that the averted warming due to increasing crop canopy albedo by 0.04 is regionally and seasonally specific, with the largest cooling of ~1 °C for Europe in summer whereas in the low latitude monsoonal SE Asian regions of high density cropland, the greatest cooling is experienced in winter. In this study we identify potentially important positive impacts of increasing crop canopy albedo on soil moisture and primary productivity in European cropland regions, due to seasonal increases in precipitation. We also find that the background climate state has an important influence on the predicted regional effectiveness of bio-geoengineering on societally-relevant timescales (ca 100 years). The degree of natural climate variability and its dependence on greenhouse forcing that are evident in our simulations highlights the difficulties faced in the detection and verification of climate mitigation in geoengineering schemes. However, despite the small global impact, regionally focused schemes such as crop albedo bio-geoengineering have detection advantages

Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming

A common proxy for the adaptive capacity of a community to the impacts of future climate change is the range of climate variability which they have experienced in the recent past. This study presents an interpretation of such a framework for monthly temperatures. Our results demonstrate that emergence into genuinely 'unfamiliar' climates will occur across nearly all months of the year for low-income nations by the second half of the 21st century under an RCP8.5 warming scenario. However, high income countries commonly experience a large seasonal cycle, owing to their position in the middle latitudes: as a consequence, temperature emergence for transitional months translates only to more-frequent occurrences of heat historically associated with the summertime. Projections beyond 2050 also show low-income countries will experience 2–10 months per year warmer than the hottest month experienced in recent memory, while high-income countries will witness between 1–4 months per year hotter than any month previously experienced. While both results represent significant departures that may bring substantive societal impacts if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, they also demonstrate that spatial patterns of emergence will compound existing differences between high and low income populations, in terms of their capacity to adapt to unprecedented future temperatures

The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes

Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity, but they all rely on parameterizations of atmospheric convection, which often produce significant biases in rainfall characteristics over the tropics. The authors evaluate the impact of these biases by driving the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) with regional-scale atmospheric simulations of one cropping season over West Africa at different resolutions, with and without a parameterization of convection, and compare these with a GLAM run driven by observations. The parameterization of convection produces too light and frequent rainfall throughout the domain, as compared with the short, localized, high-intensity events in the observations and in the convection-permitting runs. Persistent light rain increases surface evaporation, and much heavier rainfall is required to trigger planting. Planting is therefore delayed in the runs with parameterized convection and occurs at a seasonally cooler time, altering the environmental conditions experienced by the crops. Even at high resolutions, runs driven by parameterized convection underpredict the small-scale variability in yields produced by realistic rainfall patterns. Correcting the distribution of rainfall frequencies and intensities before use in crop models will improve the process-based representation of the crop life cycle, increasing confidence in the predictions of crop yield. The rainfall biases described here are a common feature of parameterizations of convection, and therefore the crop-model errors described are likely to occur when using any global weather or climate model, thus remaining hidden when using climate-model intercomparisons to evaluate uncertainty

The adaptive capacity of maize-based conservation agriculture systems to climate stress in tropical and subtropical environments: A meta-regression of yields

Conservation agriculture is widely promoted across sub-Saharan Africa as a sustainable farming practice that enhances adaptive capacity to climate change. The interactions between climate stress, management, and soil are critical to understanding the adaptive capacity of conservation agriculture. Yet conservation agriculture syntheses to date have largely neglected climate, especially the effects of extreme heat. For the sub-tropics and tropics, we use meta-regression, in combination with global soil and climate datasets, to test four hypotheses: (1) that relative yield performance of conservation agriculture improves with increasing drought and temperature stress; (2) that the effects of moisture and temperature stress exposure interact; (3) that the effects of moisture and temperature stress are modified by soil texture; and (4) that crop diversification, fertilizer application rate, or the time since no-till implementation will enhance conservation agriculture performance under climate stress. Our results support the hypothesis that the relative maize yield performance of conservation agriculture improves with increasing drought severity or exposure to high temperatures. Further, there is an interaction of moisture and heat stress on conservation agriculture performance and their combined effect is both non-additive and modified by soil clay content, supporting our second and third hypotheses. Finally, we found only limited support for our fourth hypothesis as (1) increasing nitrogen application rates did not improve the relative performance of conservation agriculture under high heat stress; (2) crop diversification did not notably improve conservation agriculture performance, but did increase its stability with heat stress; and (3) a statistically robust effect of the time since no-till implementation was not evident. Our meta-regression supports the narrative that conservation agriculture enhances the adaptive capacity of maize production in sub-Saharan Africa under drought and/or heat stress. However, in very wet seasons and on clay-rich soils, conservation agriculture yields less compared to conventional practices

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Transcriptome pathways unique to dehydration tolerant relatives of modern wheat

Among abiotic stressors, drought is a major factor responsible for dramatic yield loss in agriculture. In order to reveal differences in global expression profiles of drought tolerant and sensitive wild emmer wheat genotypes, a previously deployed shock-like dehydration process was utilized to compare transcriptomes at two time points in root and leaf tissues using the Affymetrix GeneChip(R) Wheat Genome Array hybridization. The comparison of transcriptomes reveal several unique genes or expression patterns such as differential usage of IP(3)-dependent signal transduction pathways, ethylene- and abscisic acid (ABA)-dependent signaling, and preferential or faster induction of ABA-dependent transcription factors by the tolerant genotype that distinguish contrasting genotypes indicative of distinctive stress response pathways. The data also show that wild emmer wheat is capable of engaging known drought stress responsive mechanisms. The global comparison of transcriptomes in the absence of and after dehydration underlined the gene networks especially in root tissues that may have been lost in the selection processes generating modern bread wheats