Longitudinal analysis of maize diversity in Yucatan, Mexico: influence of agro-ecological factors on landraces conservation and modern variety introduction

Transformations that farmers bring to their traditional farming systems and their impacts on the conservation and evolution of maize varieties over a 12-year period are investigated using a longitudinal analysis. Despite the increased introduction and supply of improved maize variety seeds in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, over the last 12 years farmers continue to maintain a substantial amount of traditional maize variety diversity. Even with the increased availability of hybrid seeds, farmers in the community of Yaxcaba on average plant more than three quarters of their milpa fields to traditional maize varieties, with the latter one fourth predominately planted to a locally improved variety Nal Xoy, a farm cross of a traditional variety and an improved variety. We observed a significant reduction in yellow – x-Nuuk nal, a long-cycle traditional landrace, paralleled by an increase in short- and intermediate-cycle locally adapted improved maize varieties. We found great differences in the distribution of maize varieties by soil type, with modern varieties being targeted for the rarer, deeper and fine-grained soils, while traditional varieties predominate on the more prevalent stony and thin soils. Our results provide a picture in which most traditional maize varieties in Yaxcaba continue to be maintained by farmers, coexisting with locally adapted improved varieties on the same landscape, and allowing the continued evolution of maize populationsPeer Revie

Modeling interannual dense shelf water export in the region of the Mertz Glacier Tongue (1992-2007)

1] Ocean observations around the Australian-Antarctic basin show the importance of coastal latent heat polynyas near the Mertz Glacier Tongue (MGT) to the formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) and associated Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Here, we use a regional ocean/ice shelf model to investigate the interannual variability of the export of DSW from the Adélie (west of the MGT) and the Mertz (east of the MGT) depressions from 1992 to 2007. The variability in the model is driven by changes in observed surface heat and salt fluxes. The model simulates an annual mean export of DSW through the Adélie sill of about 0.07 ± 0.06 Sv. From 1992 to 1998, the export of DSW through the Adélie (Mertz) sills peaked at 0.14 Sv (0.29 Sv) during July to November. During periods of mean to strong polynya activity (defined by the surface ocean heat loss), DSW formed in the Adélie depression can spread into the Mertz depression via the cavity under the MGT. An additional simulation, where ocean/ice shelf thermodynamics have been disabled, highlights the fact that models without ocean/ice shelf interaction processes will significantly overestimate rates of DSW export. The melt rates of the MGT are 1.2 ± 0.4 m yr−1 during periods of average to strong polynya activity and can increase to 3.8 ± 1.5 m/yr during periods of sustained weak polynya activity, due to the increased presence of relatively warmer water interacting with the base of the ice shelf. The increased melting of the MGT during a weak polynya state can cause further freshening of the DSW and ultimately limits the production of AABW

Future sea level change from Antarctica's Lambert-Amery glacial system

Future global mean sea level (GMSL) change is dependent on the complex response of the Antarctic ice sheet to ongoing changes and feedbacks in the climate system. The Lambert-Amery glacial system has been observed to be stable over the recent period yet is potentially at risk of rapid grounding line retreat and ice discharge given that a significant volume of its ice is grounded below sea level, making its future contribution to GMSL uncertain. Using a regional ice sheet model of the Lambert-Amery system, we find that under a range of future warming and extreme scenarios, the simulated grounding line remains stable and does not trigger rapid mass loss from grounding line retreat. This allows for increased future accumulation to exceed the mass loss from ice dynamical changes. We suggest that the Lambert-Amery glacial system will remain stable or gain ice mass and mitigate a portion of potential future sea level rise over the next 500 years, with a range of +3.6 to −117.5 mm GMSL equivalent

Modelled fracture and calving on the Totten Ice Shelf

The Totten Ice Shelf (IS) has a large drainage basin, much of which is grounded below sea level, leaving the glacier vulnerable to retreat through the marine ice sheet instability mechanism. The ice shelf has also been shown to be sensitive to changes in calving rate, as a very small retreat of the calving front from its current position is predicted to cause a change in flow at the grounding line. Therefore understanding the processes behind calving on the Totten IS is key to predicting its future sea level rise contribution. Here we use the Helsinki Discrete Element Model (HiDEM) to show that not all of the fractures visible at the front of the Totten IS are produced locally, but that the across-flow basal crevasses, which are part of the distinctive cross-cutting fracture pattern, are advected into the calving front area from upstream. A separate simulation of the grounding line shows that re-grounding points may be key areas of basal crevasse production, and can produce basal crevasses in both an along- and across-flow orientation. The along-flow basal crevasses at the grounding line may be a possible precursor to basal channels, while we suggest the across-flow grounding-line fractures are the source of the across-flow features observed at the calving front. We use two additional models to simulate the evolution of basal fractures as they advect downstream, demonstrating that both strain and ocean melt have the potential to deform narrow fractures into the broad basal features observed near the calving front. The wide range of factors which influence fracture patterns and calving on this glacier will be a challenge for predicting its future mass loss.</p

A spectral line shape analysis of motional stark effect spectra

12th International Congress on Plasma Physics, 25-29 October 2004, Nice (France)Recent observations of MSE spectra carried out on Tore-Supra show discrepancies between experimental and theoretical intensities calculated at equilibrium. We present here a kinetic model, based on the selectivity of excitation cross sections of Stark states in the parabolic basis. Redistribution due to ion-atom collisions among Stark states of level n=3 allow to calculate the population of Stark states. This model permits to improve significantly the agreement between measured and calculated MSE spectra

Impact of ocean forcing on the Aurora Basin in the 21st and 22nd centuries

The grounded ice in the Totten and Dalton glaciers is an essential component of the buttressing for the marine-based Aurora basin, and hence their stability is important to the future rate of mass loss from East Antarctica. Totten and Vanderford glaciers are joined by a deep east-west running subglacial trench between the continental ice sheet and Law Dome, while a shallower trench links the Totten and Dalton glaciers. All three glaciers flow into the ocean close to the Antarctic circle and experience ocean-driven ice shelf melt rates comparable with the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We investigate this combination of trenches and ice shelves with the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice-sheet model and ocean-forcing melt rates derived from two global climate models. We find that ice shelf ablation at a rate comparable with the present day is sufficient to cause widespread grounding line retreat in an east-west direction across Totten and Dalton glaciers, with projected future warming causing faster retreat. Meanwhile, southward retreat is limited by the shallower ocean facing slopes between the coast and the bulk of the Aurora sub-glacial trench. However the two climate models produce completely different future ice shelf basal melt rates in this region: HadCM3 drives increasing sub-ice shelf melting to ~2150, while ECHAM5 shows little or no increase in sub-ice shelf melting under the two greenhouse gas forcing scenarios

Intercomparison of Antarctic ice-shelf, ocean, and sea-ice interactions simulated by MetROMS-iceshelf and FESOM 1.4

An increasing number of Southern Ocean models now include Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, and simulate thermodynamics at the ice-shelf/ocean interface. This adds another level of complexity to Southern Ocean simulations, as ice shelves interact directly with the ocean and indirectly with sea ice. Here, we present the first model intercomparison and evaluation of present-day ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf interactions, as simulated by two models: a circumpolar Antarctic configuration of MetROMS (ROMS: Regional Ocean Modelling System coupled to CICE: Community Ice CodE) and the global model FESOM (Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model), where the latter is run at two different levels of horizontal resolution. From a circumpolar Antarctic perspective, we compare and evaluate simulated ice-shelf basal melting and sub-ice-shelf circulation, as well as sea-ice properties and Southern Ocean water mass characteristics as they influence the sub-ice-shelf processes. Despite their differing numerical methods, the two models produce broadly similar results and share similar biases in many cases. Both models reproduce many key features of observations but struggle to reproduce others, such as the high melt rates observed in the small warm-cavity ice shelves of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas. Several differences in model design show a particular influence on the simulations. For example, FESOM's greater topographic smoothing can alter the geometry of some ice-shelf cavities enough to affect their melt rates; this improves at higher resolution, since less smoothing is required. In the interior Southern Ocean, the vertical coordinate system affects the degree of water mass erosion due to spurious diapycnal mixing, with MetROMS' terrain-following coordinate leading to more erosion than FESOM's z coordinate. Finally, increased horizontal resolution in FESOM leads to higher basal melt rates for small ice shelves, through a combination of stronger circulation and small-scale intrusions of warm water from offshore

Ocean forced variability of Totten Glacier mass loss

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Geological Society of London via the DOI in this record.A large volume of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet drains through the Totten Glacier (TG) and is thought to be a potential source of substantial global sea level rise over the coming centuries. We show the surface velocity and heightof the floating part of TG, which buttresses the grounded component, have varied substantially over two decades (1989–2011), with variations in surface height strongly anti-correlated with simulated basal melt rates (r=0.70, p<0.05). Coupled glacier/ice-shelf simulations confirm ice flow and thickness respond to both basal melting of the ice shelf and grounding on bed obstacles. We conclude the observed variability of TG is primarily ocean-driven. Ocean warming in this region will lead to enhanced ice-sheet dynamism and loss of upstream grounded ice.This work was supported by, Australian Antarctic Division projects 3103, 4077, 4287 and 4346, National Computing Infrastructure grant m68, NSF grant ANT-0733025, NASA grant NNX09AR52G (Operation Ice Bridge), NERC grant NE/F016646/1, NERC fellowship NE/G012733/2, the Jackson School of Geoscience, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. This research was also supported by the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Programme through the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. The work is also supported under the Australian Research Councils Special Research Initiative for Antarctic Gateway Partnership SR140300001. Landsat 4 and 7 images courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. This is UTIG contribution 2486. Thanks to Benoit Legresy for useful discussions