Credit Risk Assessment of Corporate Sector in Croatia

The main goal of this paper is modeling credit risk of non-financial businesses entities by assessing the rating migration probabilities and predicting the probability of default over one year horizon on the basis of corporate financial accounts. Our research provides a number of new important insights. Ratings migration matrices are symmetrical in every observed period, which implies that default state is not final terminal state. We find a high degree of rating stability, with the exception of some volatility generated by firms in the middle of the ratings scale. In the period of lower economic growth probabilities of transition between different risks categories are lower than in the period of higher economic growth. Probabilities of default are relatively stable across enterprises operating in different economic activities. After considering a wide range of potential predictors of default, multivariate logistic regression results reveal that the most important are the ratio of shareholders’ equity to total assets and the ratio of EBIT to total liabilities, both negatively related to the probability of default. In addition, higher liquidity, profitability and sales as well as construction and real estate sector affiliation all decrease the companies’ probability of default in the following year. The model correctly classifies relatively reasonable percentage of companies in the sample (74% of all the companies, 71% of defaulted and 75% of non-defaulted companies) when the threshold is set in such a way to maximize the sum of correctly predicted proportions for both defaulted and nondefaulted companies

Marknadsföra känslan : En undersökning om visuell attraktion vid marknadsföring för unga

Marknadsföringens grund är spridning av information. Upplysning sker genom distribution till riktad intressegrupp som konsumerar marknadsföringens budskap. Marknadsföringen slår igenom om åskådaren köper budskapets känsla. Upplevelse av känslan utgår ifrån innehållets kontext som tilltalar individen emotionellt. Detta kandidatarbete syftar till att undersöka hur emotion och autobiografisk minne kan utnyttjas vid marknadsföring. Därmed utforska hur kontext i film engagerar ungdomar för rekrytering inom en teknisk nischad bransch. Kontext formas utifrån hur individen upplever den estetiska bilden. Därtill skapas ett sammanhang som individen relaterar till och sprider vidare i sitt sociala nätverk. I detta fall har denna undersökning experimenterat med representation av ventilationsbranschen för rekrytering. Omvärldsanalys användes för informationssökande om ventilationsbranschen. Designmetoder har använts för kommunikation av vision vid godkännande under iterativ designprocess. Till sist har bildmanipulation använts under filmproduktion som resulterade en rekryteringsfilm som involverar dess målgrupp. Rekryteringfilmen gestaltar ungdomar som ska rekryteras inom ventilationsbranschen och två utomstående som visar vilja till rekrytering. Estetisk symbolik förmedlar kontext som gestaltar känslan av anställning istället för beskrivning av upplevelsen. Skådespelarnas naturliga utförande reflekteras hos mottagaren som upplever känslan. Däremot har utmaningar under produktion fått oss att omstrukturera iterationer av detta projekt. Dilemman som COVID-19 pandemin och vår kommunikation till ventilationsbranschen utvecklade vår designförmåga. Med Löwgrens och Stoltermans exempel på hur designen hanterar dilemman med retrospektiv reflektion (Löwgren & Stolterman, 2004), har vår egen kreativitet använts vid reflektion över vad som vi kunde åstadkomma trots dilemmat. Rekryteringsfilmen kommer att distribueras efter COVID-19 pandemin har avtagit och marknadsföringen sätts på prov. Filmmediets emotionella koppling till människor kan därmed testas för vidare forskning.The basis of marketing is dissemination of information. Enlightenment is provided through distribution towards targeted interest groups who consume the marketing message. The marketing works when the viewer buys into the emotion of the message. Experience of that emotion is based on the content´s context that appeals to the individual emotionally. This bachelor thesis aims at examination of how emotion and autobiographical memory can be used in marketing. Therefore investigate how context in film engages young people for recruitment in a technical niche industry. Context is formed based on how the individual perceives the aesthetic image. In addition, a context is created that the individual can relate to and spread it further in her social network. In this case, this study has experimented with the representation of the ventilation industry for recruitment. External analysis has been used for seeking information about the ventilation industry. Design methods have been used for communication of a vision upon approval during the iterative design process. Finally, image manipulation during film production was used to result in a recruitment film involving its target audience. The recruitment film depicts young people being recruited into the ventilation industry and two outsiders who show a desire for recruitment. Aesthetic symbolism conveys a context that embodies the feeling of employment rather than description of the experience. The actors' natural performance is reflected by the recipient who is experiencing the emotion. However, challenges during production have led us to revamp iterations of this project. Dilemmas such as the COVID-19 pandemic and our communication with the ventilation industry developed our design ability. With Löwgren’s and Stolterman’s example of how the designer handles dilemmas with retrospective reflection (Löwgren & Stolterman, 2004), our own creativity has been used in reflection upon what we could achieve despite the dilemma. The recruitment film will be distributed after the COVID-19 pandemic have diminished and the marketing will be put to the test. The film medium’s emotional connection to people can therefore be tested for further investigation

Predicting European Bank Distress: Evidence from the recent financial crisis

Based on a sample of active and non-active banks operating in four areas of specialization: commercial banks, co-operative banks, savings banks and real estate and mortgage banks, belonging to 12 European countries over the period 2001-2011, this paper examines whether the Z-score is indeed a valuable measure to predict bank distress. Additionally, in order to verify whether the predictive power of the Z-score varies before and during the recent crisis, the sample period is further split into two sub-periods: the pre-crisis period (2001\u20132007) and the crisis years (2008\u20132011). The results of the empirical analysis indicate that the Z-score is a key determinant of the probability of bank distress in all the sample periods considered. In addition, the paper finds that complementing the Z-score with indicators for bank size and bank risk improves the model performance, only during the whole period and the crisis years. The contribution of macro-variables results basically insignificant