The Grizzly, May 9, 2019

Kingston Out, Varner in for Bear Bash • Ursinus Reacts to Symbol of Hatred • Q&A with President Blomberg • Ursinus Graduates First Wave of Education Studies Majors • Breakaway Student Productions\u27 One Act Festival Premieres Four Student-Written Plays • Ursinus Fulbright Scholar, Jason Bennett \u2719, to Research Theoretical High-Energy Physics at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands • Opinions: Swarthmore Scandal Speaks to Greater Issues with Fraternity Culture; The United States Should Shorten its Work Week • Athlete Spotlight: Running Back Sam Ragland \u2721 • The Thanks for a Fun Two Years Award: You, the Fans • Bears Win Conference Championshiphttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1622/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, May 2, 2019

Hollywood Actor Visits Ursinus • UCDC Brings Dynamic Performances to COSA • Ursinus Student Makes History by Being First Student to be Accepted in Major Program • COSA Features Play About Racism on Campus • Calling All Textures Event Brings the Community Together • Sophomore AJ Belville Wins Scholarship to Study in Scotland for a Year • Opinions: We Must not Ignore China\u27s Cultural Purging; Disney\u27s Newest Dumbo Fails to Soar • Football Team Preparing for Fall Season with Spring Workouts • The Fine, We\u27ll do This Later Award: Kayla Quinn • Bears\u27 Playoff Push Falls Shorthttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1621/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, April 18, 2019

Largest Number of Prospective Students Ever Visit Ursinus on Admitted Students Day • Board of Trustees Gets More Diverse • Ursinus Alumna Comes to Discuss Her 45-Year Career in Education • French Hangs up the Baton After 40 Years of Service • Planned Parenthood Club Aims to Increase Awareness of Reproductive Rights and Health on Campus • Q&A Senior Feature: Brittani Schnable • Opinions: Transgender Soldiers Should be Respected; What Contemporary Indie Could Learn from the Post-Punk Movement • The Nice Job Scoring the Game-Winning Goal in Overtime Award: Sam Mutz • Mopkins! Bears Pull Off Historic Sweep of Blue Jays • Softball Team Racks up Accolades Amid Season of Marked Improvementhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1619/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, April 11, 2019

Legendary Ursinus Professor Remembered • Q&A with Lantern Editor • Three Students Make Their Voices Heard • Speaker Combines Focus on Jewish History and Jewish Humor • Senior Spotlight: Biology and Neuroscience Double Major Katherine Madden • The Medusa Play Premieres at Ursinus • Opinions: My Memories of Professor Doughty; Looking Back at the (Awesome) Original Twilight Zone • The Intestinal Fortitude Award: Morgan Comfort • The I\u27m the New Career Goals Record-Holder Award: Peter DeSimone • Football Duo Share Their Experience Abroad • Bradford Gearing Up for Big Senior Season with UC Footballhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1618/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, March 1, 2018

Ursinus Administrators Hold Info Session to Discuss Sexual Misconduct Allegations • Collegeville Mayor Reflects on Career in Political Activism • Assistant Dean for International Studies Conducts Study Abroad Research • Multiple Yoga Courses Offered on Campus • Say Yes to Positive Sex Education • Digitizing the Past, Present and Future • Opinions: Respecting Women Requires Questioning Masculinity; Lysistrata is More Than Just a Greek Sex Comedy • Men\u27s Basketball Downed in CC Semifinal • Both UC Tennis Teams Ranked No. 7 in CChttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1639/thumbnail.jp

Developing a Series of AI Challenges for the United States Department of the Air Force

Through a series of federal initiatives and orders, the U.S. Government has been making a concerted effort to ensure American leadership in AI. These broad strategy documents have influenced organizations such as the United States Department of the Air Force (DAF). The DAF-MIT AI Accelerator is an initiative between the DAF and MIT to bridge the gap between AI researchers and DAF mission requirements. Several projects supported by the DAF-MIT AI Accelerator are developing public challenge problems that address numerous Federal AI research priorities. These challenges target priorities by making large, AI-ready datasets publicly available, incentivizing open-source solutions, and creating a demand signal for dual use technologies that can stimulate further research. In this article, we describe these public challenges being developed and how their application contributes to scientific advances

Tropical field stations yield high conservation return on investment

Conservation funding is currently limited; cost-effective conservation solutions are essential. We suggest that the thousands of field stations worldwide can play key roles at the frontline of biodiversity conservation and have high intrinsic value. We assessed field stations’ conservation return on investment and explored the impact of COVID-19. We surveyed leaders of field stations across tropical regions that host primate research; 157 field stations in 56 countries responded. Respondents reported improved habitat quality and reduced hunting rates at over 80% of field stations and lower operational costs per km2 than protected areas, yet half of those surveyed have less funding now than in 2019. Spatial analyses support field station presence as reducing deforestation. These ‘earth observatories’ provide a high return on investment; we advocate for increased support of field station programs and for governments to support their vital conservation efforts by investing accordingly

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation