A Gap Analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Programme in Africa

This report is the main output from a Gap Analysis, financed by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DfID) as a major contribution to a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) workshop to address climate and development issues in sub-Saharan Africa. The requirement is to assess key gaps in the use of climate information from the perspective of the decision-making community at household, community, district, national and regional levels, for a range of sectors, with particular emphasis on health, agriculture and water. The report was prepared by a group of people with broad, deep and diverse experience with climate sensitive development problems, and with climate and development communities in Africa. It was strengthened by review by a larger community of development experts

Preparing for El Niño: Advancing Regional Plans and Interregional Communications: workshop proceedings, Palisades, New York, April 29-May 2, 2002

A workshop on Preparing for El Niño: Advancing Regional Plans and Interregional Communication was hosted by the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) on April 29 - May 01, 2002 in Palisades, New York. The workshop was organized to bring together leading regional representatives of the seasonal forecasting and applications community to advance regional preparedness by informing plan- ning processes and developing communications networks, and to draft action plans to confront an El Niño event in 2002-2003. Participants were invited from 12 regions that are characterized by significant historical El Niño impacts or that otherwise manifest societal vulnerability to climate variations. Many have been involved in the development of regional climate information and applications networks, while others were recommended as strong candidates for network development. Representatives from regional, national, and international organizations (World Meteorological Organization, World Bank, US Agency for International Development, NOAA’s Office of Global Programs, US Climate Prediction Center and Dialogue on Water and Climate) also participated in the discussions and planning. The specific objectives of the workshop were to: • Evaluate the current state of the global and regional climate system and regional forecasts • Evaluate regional preparedness and potential El Niño impacts • Share experiences inter-regionally • Develop a global strategy for regional preparedness • Refine mechanisms for interregional knowledge exchange. This document provides a summary of the workshop outcomes and next steps as defined by the meeting participants. The wealth of knowledge and experience shared among participants was far beyond what can be expressed in these pages, although, a synthesis of major themes is attempted. This workshop was prepared on short notice, to advance preparedness for an emerging El Niño in 2002. To paraphrase one participant, “its long-term goal is to effectively build resilience in societies, and there- by reduce the vulnerability to El Niño related regional climate effects.” In preparing for the next El Niño and in building systems for the future, much work remains to be done. We hope that this workshop con- stitutes one small step towards assisting affected regions to cope with this El Niño, and strengthens region- al systems in the long run for managing climate variability and change. Workshop Steering Committee, June 200

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

El Niño conditions were formally declared by all major climate forecasting centers in May 2015. The latest forecasts (October 2015) suggest this event will be strong, even comparable with the 1997-1998 event, with predicted higher than normal temperatures around the tropical belt and an increased chance of high rainfall in East Africa during the forthcoming short rains (October- December). The 1997-1988 event was associated with widespread and devastating malaria epidemics across the region including north-eastern Kenya (Brown, 2008). Understanding and monitoring the emerging climatic conditions offers an opportunity to improve regional, national and sub-national health system preparedness that can better prevent and manage malaria outbreaks associated with El Niño

Global Forum on Sustainable Development

Located between two of the largest countries in South America, namely Brazil and Argentina, Uruguay has a relatively small territory (176,000 km ) and a population of approximately 3.2 million. With a vast proportion of its land under natural grasslands (approximately 80%), Uruguay’s economy is largely dependent, directly and indirectly, on the agricultural and livestock sector. Similarly to most countries in the world during the last decade, the Uruguayan general public and the political administrations have become increasingly aware of global environmental threats such as climate change and atmospheric contamination. Since 1990 Uruguay started to develop national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories using the IPCC methodology. These inventories have generated new interests regarding potential opportunities for the national agriculture, forestry and energy sectors to contributetomitigatingglobalclimatechangethroughactivitiesthatresultinnetCO sequestration. The first objective of this article is to review the current situation regarding the opportunities for three sectors in Uruguay to address climate change. To this end, we assess Uruguay’s GHG emissions and economic performance before reviewing policies, plans and regulations which resulted in land use changes and new forested areas with significant implications for climate change. A second objective of the article is to explore possible legal actions and programs that can result in both socioeconomic development and an increased ability to mitigate climate change. This objective is met by exploring recent policies, plans and regulations that explicitly consider global environmental issues and the climate change mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and energy sectors

Understanding CMIP6 biases in the representation of the Greater Horn of Africa long and short rains

The societies of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are vulnerable to variability in two distinct rainy seasons, the March–May ‘long’ rains and the October–December ‘short’ rains. Recent trends in both rainy seasons, possibly related to patterns of low-frequency variability, have increased interest in future climate projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, previous generations of GCMs historically have poorly simulated the regional hydroclimate. This study conducts a process-based evaluation of simulations of the long and short rains in CMIP6, the latest generation of GCMs. Key biases in CMIP5 remain or are worsened, including long rains that are too short and weak and short rains that are too long and strong. Model biases are driven by a complex set of related oceanic and atmospheric factors, including simulations of the Walker Circulation. Biased wet short rains in models are connected with Indian Ocean zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients that are too warm in the west and convection that is too deep. Models connect equatorial African winds with the strength of the short rains, though in observations a robust connection is primarily found in the long rains. Model mean state biases in the timing of the western Indian Ocean SST seasonal cycle are associated with certain rainfall timing biases, though both biases may be due to a common source. Simulations driven by historical SSTs (AMIP runs) often have larger biases than fully coupled runs. A path towards using biases to better understand uncertainty in projections of GHA rainfall is suggested

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

El Niño conditions were formally declared by all major climate forecasting centers in May 2015. The latest forecasts (September 2015) suggest this event will be strong, even comparable with the 1997-1998 event, with predicted higher than normal temperatures around the tropical belt and an increased chance of high rainfall in East Africa during the forthcoming short rains (October- December). The 1997-1998 event was associated with widespread and devastating malaria epidemics across the region including north-eastern Kenya (Brown, 2008). Understanding and monitoring the emerging climatic conditions offers an opportunity to improve regional, national and sub-national health system preparedness that can better prevent and manage malaria outbreaks associated with El Niño

Research utilisation and knowledge mobilisation in the commissioning and joint planning of public health interventions to reduce alcohol-related harms: a qualitative case design using a cocreation approach

Background: Considerable resources are spent on research to establish what works to improve the nation’s health. If the findings from this research are used, better health outcomes can follow, but we know that these findings are not always used. In public health, evidence of what works may not ‘fit’ everywhere, making it difficult to know what to do locally. Research suggests that evidence use is a social and dynamic process, not a simple application of research findings. It is unclear whether it is easier to get evidence used via a legal contracting process or within unified organisational arrangements with shared responsibilities. Objective: To work in cocreation with research participants to investigate how research is utilised and knowledge mobilised in the commissioning and planning of public health services to reduce alcohol-related harms. Design, setting and participants: Two in-depth, largely qualitative, cross-comparison case studies were undertaken to compare real-time research utilisation in commissioning across a purchaser–provider split (England) and in joint planning under unified organisational arrangements (Scotland) to reduce alcohol-related harms. Using an overarching realist approach and working in cocreation, case study partners (stakeholders in the process) picked the topic and helped to interpret the findings. In Scotland, the topic picked was licensing; in England, it was reducing maternal alcohol consumption. Methods: Sixty-nine interviews, two focus groups, 14 observations of decision-making meetings, two local feedback workshops (n = 23 and n = 15) and one national workshop (n = 10) were undertaken. A questionnaire (n = 73) using a Behaviourally Anchored Rating Scale was issued to test the transferability of the 10 main findings. Given the small numbers, care must be taken in interpreting the findings. Findings: Not all practitioners have the time, skills or interest to work in cocreation, but when there was collaboration, much was learned. Evidence included professional and tacit knowledge, and anecdotes, as well as findings from rigorous research designs. It was difficult to identify evidence in use and decisions were sometimes progressed in informal ways and in places we did not get to see. There are few formal evidence entry points. Evidence (prevalence and trends in public health issues) enters the process and is embedded in strategic documents to set priorities, but local data were collected in both sites to provide actionable messages (sometimes replicating the evidence base). Conclusions: Two mid-range theories explain the findings. If evidence has saliency (relates to ‘here and now’ as opposed to ‘there and then’) and immediacy (short, presented verbally or visually and with emotional appeal) it is more likely to be used in both settings. A second mid-range theory explains how differing tensions pull and compete as feasible and acceptable local solutions are pursued across stakeholders. Answering what works depends on answering for whom and where simultaneously to find workable (if temporary) ‘blends’. Gaining this agreement across stakeholders appeared more difficult across the purchaser–provider split, because opportunities to interact were curtailed; however, more research is needed. Funding: This study was funded by the Health Services and Delivery Research programme of the National Institute for Health Research

Global high-resolution soil profile database for crop modeling applications

One of the obstacles in applying advanced crop simulation models such as DSSAT at a grid-based platform is the lack of gridded soil input data at various resolutions. Recently, there has been many efforts in scientific communities to develop spatially continuous soil database across the globe. The most representative example is the SoilGrids 1km released by ISRIC in 2014. In addition recent AfSIS project put a lot of efforts to develop more accurate soil database in Africa at high spatial resolution. Taking advantage of those two available high resolution soil databases (SoilGrids 1km and ISRIC-AfSIS at 1km resolution), this project aims to develop a set of DSSAT compatible soil profiles on 5 arc-minute grid (which is HarvestChoice’s standard grid). Six soil properties (bulk density, organic carbon, percentage of clay and silt, soil pH and cation exchange capacity) available from the original SoilGrids 1km or ISRIC-AfSIS were directly used as DSSAT inputs. We applied a pedo-transfer function to derive some soil hydraulic properties (saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil water content at field capacity, wilting point and saturation) which are critical to simulate crop growth. For other required variables, HarvestChoice’s HC27 database are used as a reference. Final outputs are provided in *.SOL file format (DSSAT soil database) for each country at 5-min resolution. In addition, uncertainty maps for organic carbon and soil water content at wilting points at the top 15 cm soil layers were generated to provide brief idea about accuracy of the final products. The generated soil properties were evaluated by visualizing their global maps and by comparing them with IIASA-IFPRI cropland map and AfSIS-GYGA’s available water content maps.HarvestChoice; IFPRI1EPTDCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Atmospheric circulation types controlling rainfall in the Central American Isthmus

Rainfall mechanisms in the Central American Isthmus are controlled by complex physical interactions across spatial and temporal scales, which are reflected on the dynamics of atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the region. However, physical mechanisms and their relationships with thermodynamic distributions connected to overturning circulations remain elusive. Here, a set of six recurrent daily atmospheric patterns, or weather types (WT), is defined using a k-means++ clustering algorithm on standardized fields of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and winds at 925, 850, and 200 hPa. The relationships between these weather types, their temporal characteristics, and anomalous distributions of moisture flux divergence, equivalent potential temperature (saturated and unsaturated), and observed rainfall are used to describe physical processes controlling the latter, for all seasons. Regional observed rainfall is analysed from a set of 174 automatic stations from all countries from Mexico to Panama. By modulating vertically integrated moisture fluxes, these weather types, and the different climate drivers linked to them, control the temporal and spatial rainfall characteristics in the region, especially over the Pacific side of the isthmus. During some stages of the regional rainy season, described by two weather types, thermal anomalies in convective quasiequilibrium characteristic of the upward branch of the Hadley cell force westerly flow over Central America, enhancing rainfall. While during other stages, the enhancement of the trades and the displacement of convection to the ITCZ area over the eastern tropical Pacific, characteristic of the midsummer drought, diminishes rainfall. This study sets the stage for a better understanding of the mechanistic relationship between these weather types and rainfall characteristics in general, like onset, demise, and duration of rainy seasons. Hence, these results can inform process-based model diagnostics aiming at bias-correcting climate predictions at multiple timescales