The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe

Fil: Tompkins, Adrian M.. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Ortiz de Zarate, Maria Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Vera, Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Saulo, Andrea Celeste. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Merryfield, William J.. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Sigmond, Michael. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Lee, Woo Sung. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Baehr, Johanna. Universitat Hamburg; AlemaniaFil: Braun, Alain. Météo-France; FranciaFil: Amy Butler. National Ocean And Atmospheric Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Déqué, Michel. Météo-France; FranciaFil: Doblas Reyes, Francisco J.. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaFil: Gordon, Margaret. Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Scaife, Adam A.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Yukiko Imada. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Masayoshi Ishii. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Tomoaki Ose. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Kirtman, Ben. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Kumar, Arun. National Ocean And Atmospheric Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Müller, Wolfgang A.. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie; AlemaniaFil: Pirani, Anna. Université Paris-Saclay; FranciaFil: Stockdale, Tim. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather; Reino UnidoFil: Rixen, Michel. World Meteorological Organization. World Climate Research Programme; SuizaFil: Yasuda, Tamaki. Japan Meteorological Agency. Climate Prediction Division; Japó

The Effects of Natural Variability and Climate Change on the Record Low Sunshine over Japan during August 2017

EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2017 FROM A CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE (Supecial Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.100, No.1, January 2019

Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2 °C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to 2 °C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.ISSN:1748-9326ISSN:1748-931

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2 °C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to 2 °C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions

Effect of Heart Failure on Long‐Term Clinical Outcomes After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Patients With Severe Coronary Artery Disease

[Background] Heart failure might be an important determinant in choosing coronary revascularization modalities. There was no previous study evaluating the effect of heart failure on long‐term clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) relative to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). [Methods and Results] Among 14 867 consecutive patients undergoing first coronary revascularization with PCI or isolated CABG between January 2011 and December 2013 in the CREDO‐Kyoto PCI/CABG registry Cohort‐3, we identified the current study population of 3380 patients with three‐vessel or left main coronary artery disease, and compared clinical outcomes between PCI and CABG stratified by the subgroup based on the status of heart failure. There were 827 patients with heart failure (PCI: N=511, and CABG: N=316), and 2553 patients without heart failure (PCI: N=1619, and CABG: N=934). In patients with heart failure, the PCI group compared with the CABG group more often had advanced age, severe frailty, acute and severe heart failure, and elevated inflammatory markers. During a median 5.9 years of follow‐up, there was a significant interaction between heart failure and the mortality risk of PCI relative to CABG (interaction P=0.009), with excess mortality risk of PCI relative to CABG in patients with heart failure (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.28–2.42; P<0.001) and no excess mortality risk in patients without heart failure (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.80–1.34; P=0.77). [Conclusions] There was a significant interaction between heart failure and the mortality risk of PCI relative to CABG with excess risk in patients with heart failure and neutral risk in patients without heart failure

WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25

Under embargo until: 2022-10-01As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future.publishedVersio

Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems

We quantify seasonal prediction skill of tropical winter rainfall in 14 climate forecast systems. High levels of seasonal prediction skill exist for year‐to‐year rainfall variability in all tropical ocean basins. The tropical East Pacific is the most skilful region, with very high correlation scores, and the tropical West Pacific is also highly skilful. Predictions of tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean rainfall show lower but statistically significant scores. We compare prediction skill (measured against observed variability) with model predictability (using single forecasts as surrogate observations). Model predictability matches prediction skill in some regions but it is generally greater, especially over the Indian Ocean. We also find significant inter‐basin connections in both observed and predicted rainfall. Teleconnections between basins due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appear to be reproduced in multi‐model predictions and are responsible for much of the prediction skill. They also explain the relative magnitude of inter‐annual variability, the relative magnitude of predictable rainfall signals and the ranking of prediction skill across different basins. These seasonal tropical rainfall predictions exhibit a severe wet bias, often in excess of 20% of mean rainfall. However, we find little direct relationship between bias and prediction skill. Our results suggest that future prediction systems would be best improved through better model representation of inter‐basin rainfall connections as these are strongly related to prediction skill, particularly in the Indian and West Pacific regions. Finally, we show that predictions of tropical rainfall alone can generate highly skilful forecasts of the main modes of extratropical circulation via linear relationships that might provide a useful tool to interpret real‐time forecasts

A Histone-Like Protein of Mycobacteria Possesses Ferritin Superfamily Protein-Like Activity and Protects against DNA Damage by Fenton Reaction

Iron is an essential metal for living organisms but its level must be strictly controlled in cells, because ferrous ion induces toxicity by generating highly active reactive oxygen, hydroxyl radicals, through the Fenton reaction. In addition, ferric ion shows low solubility under physiological conditions. To overcome these obstacles living organisms possess Ferritin superfamily proteins that are distributed in all three domains of life: bacteria, archaea, and eukaryotes. These proteins minimize hydroxyl radical formation by ferroxidase activity that converts Fe2+ into Fe3+ and sequesters iron by storing it as a mineral inside a protein cage. In this study, we discovered that mycobacterial DNA-binding protein 1 (MDP1), a histone-like protein, has similar activity to ferritin superfamily proteins. MDP1 prevented the Fenton reaction and protects DNA by the ferroxidase activity. The Km values of the ferroxidase activity by MDP1 of Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG-3007c), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Rv2986c), and Mycobacterium leprae (ML1683; ML-LBP) were 0.292, 0.252, and 0.129 mM, respectively. Furthermore, one MDP1 molecule directly captured 81.4±19.1 iron atoms, suggesting the role of this protein in iron storage. This study describes for the first time a ferroxidase-iron storage protein outside of the ferritin superfamily proteins and the protective role of this bacterial protein from DNA damage

Percutaneous coronary intervention using new-generation drug-eluting stents versus coronary arterial bypass grafting in stable patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease: From the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG registry Cohort-3

AIMS: There is a scarcity of studies comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using new-generation drug-eluting stents (DES) with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG registry Cohort-3 enrolled 14927 consecutive patients who underwent first coronary revascularization with PCI or isolated CABG between January 2011 and December 2013. The current study population consisted of 2464 patients who underwent multi-vessel coronary revascularization including revascularization of left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) either with PCI using new-generation DES (N = 1565), or with CABG (N = 899). Patients in the PCI group were older and more often had severe frailty, but had less complex coronary anatomy, and less complete revascularization than those in the CABG group. Cumulative 5-year incidence of a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction or stroke was not significantly different between the 2 groups (25.0% versus 21.5%, P = 0.15). However, after adjusting confounders, the excess risk of PCI relative to CABG turned to be significant for the composite endpoint (HR 1.27, 95%CI 1.04-1.55, P = 0.02). PCI as compared with CABG was associated with comparable adjusted risk for all-cause death (HR 1.22, 95%CI 0.96-1.55, P = 0.11), and stroke (HR 1.17, 95%CI 0.79-1.73, P = 0.44), but with excess adjusted risk for myocardial infarction (HR 1.58, 95%CI 1.05-2.39, P = 0.03), and any coronary revascularization (HR 2.66, 95%CI 2.06-3.43, P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In this observational study, PCI with new-generation DES as compared with CABG was associated with excess long-term risk for major cardiovascular events in patients who underwent multi-vessel coronary revascularization including LAD