Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible..

Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behavior, and disease spread. We studied how voluntary health-protective behavior and vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. We analyzed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in pandemic control.BMBF, 01KX2021, Nationales Forschungsnetzwerk der Universitätsmedizin zu Covid-19EC/H2020/101003480/EU/COVID-19-Outbreak Response combining E-health, Serolomics, Modelling, Artificial Intelligence and Implementation Research/CORESM

The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy.

In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure 'test-trace-isolate-support' becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust

Towards a European strategy to address the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reduction of COVID-19 incidence across Europe in the early spring months of 2021 led to substantial relaxation of restrictions in summer, despite the emergence and spread of the more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. As expected, this relaxation led to a renewed increase in incidence. How should Europe act, what strategies should it adopt, and what specific risks should it consider moving forward

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic

Calling for pan-European commitment for rapid and sustained reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections.

[No abstract available

Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19

In this Bayesian inference study, the authors aim to quantify the impact of the men’s 2020 UEFA Euro Football Championship on COVID-19 spread in twelve participating countries. They estimate that 0.84 million cases and 1,700 deaths were attributable to the championship, with most impacts in England and Scotland

Flow and hydrodynamic shear stress inside a printing needle during biofabrication

We present a simple but accurate algorithm to calculate the flow and shear rate profile of shear thinning fluids, as typically used in biofabrication applications, with an arbitrary viscosity-shear rate relationship in a cylindrical nozzle. By interpolating the viscosity with a set of power-law functions, we obtain a mathematically exact piecewise solution to the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation. The algorithm is validated with known solutions for a simplified Carreau-Yasuda fluid, full numerical simulations for a realistic chitosan hydrogel as well as experimental velocity profiles of alginate and chitosan solutions in a microfluidic channel. We implement the algorithm in an easy-to-use Python tool, included as Supplementary Material, to calculate the velocity and shear rate profile during the printing process, depending on the shear thinning behavior of the bioink and printing parameters such as pressure and nozzle size. We confirm that the shear stress varies in an exactly linear fashion, starting from zero at the nozzle center to the maximum shear stress at the wall, independent of the shear thinning properties of the bioink. Finally, we demonstrate how our method can be inverted to obtain rheological bioink parameters in-situ directly before or even during printing from experimentally measured flow rate versus pressure data

Call for a pan-European COVID-19 response must be comprehensive – Authors' reply

No abstract availabl