Statistical model for Plum pox virus prediction in Prunus nursery blocks using vector and virus incidence data in four different European ecological areas

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [FULL CITE], which has been published in final form at [Link to final article using the DOI]. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.[EN] Plum pox virus(PPV) is the causal agent of sharka, the most devastating virus disease ofPrunusspecies. PPV is transmitted by vegetative propagation, particularly by grafting, as well as by aphid species in a nonpersistent manner. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the prevalence and diversity of PPV-vector aphid species in representative European areas of prunus cultivation. Four experimental nursery plots were established in Skierniewice (Poland), Liria (Spain), Plovdiv (Bulgaria) and Bistrita (Romania). Aphid population was weekly monitored using the sticky shoot method in spring and/or autumn in each nursery plot. Furthermore, we estimated the relative efficiency factor for the main PPV-vector aphid species using bibliographic and reference data. Aphid diversity in each nursery plot was assessed using the Shannon index and the number of estimated aphid species was calculated by the rarefaction method. The highest diversity of aphid species population was reported in Plovdiv in spring while the lowest diversity was found in Liria in spring. A cluster analysis based on Morisita-Horn similarity index was performed to study the differences in species composition between the four nursery plots and seasons. Aphid population was clearly grouped by location and season. Results showedAphis spiraecolaandHyalopterus prunicomplex were typically spring aphid species, whileAnoecia corniandRhopalosiphum padidominated autumn catch. Regarding PPV-vector aphid species present in nursery plots,A. spiraecolawas the most prevalent PPV-vector aphid species in Liria and in Bistrita, showing a high relative efficiency factor of PPV transmission (0.91). Consequently,A. spiraecolashould be considered a key actor in the spread of PPV in these regions.Hyalopterus prunicomplex was the most prevalent PPV-vector aphid species in Skierniewice and Plovdiv, showing a very low relative efficiency factor of PPV transmission (0.09). Therefore, the role ofH. prunicomplex in spread of PPV in these regions can be considered negligible. Furthermore, we statistically demonstrated that the presence of specific PPV-vector aphid species is associated with the spread of the disease, whereas the biodiversity of aphid species population does not affect the spread of PPV. Finally, the advantages of the use of vector pressure index in the management of sharka disease are discussed.The research leading to these results were funded by the EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), SharCo project grant no. 204429 and by grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Education (MEC, AGL2009-07531 and INIA RTA2005-00190). Authors thank I. Baias, S. Sabin (SCDP, Bistrita), B. Tamargo and J. Micó (Cooperativa Vinícola, Líria) for technical assistance in the experimental plots, Viveros Orero and Agromillora Iberia for providing the certified rootstock plants. E. Vidal was recipient of a grant from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA).Vidal, E.; Zagrai, LA.; Malinowski, T.; Soika, G.; Warabieda, W.; Tasheva-Terzieva, E.; Milusheva, S.... (2020). Statistical model for Plum pox virus prediction in Prunus nursery blocks using vector and virus incidence data in four different European ecological areas. 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Scientific Opinion on the risk to plant health posed by <em>Chrysanthemum stunt viroid</em> for the EU territory, with identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Chrysanthemum stunt viroid (CSVd) and identified and evaluated risk reduction options, particularly those listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Three entry pathways were identified, with plants for planting being the most important and rated as moderately likely. CSVd is recorded in some EU Member States with a limited distribution and is regulated on chrysanthemum; host plants are widely cultivated in greenhouses and outdoors. Therefore, establishment is very likely. Short-distance spread within a crop is likely, whereas short-distance spread between different species is unlikely to moderately likely. For vegetatively propagated species, in the absence of an efficient certification system, long-distance spread is very likely and a major impact would be expected on chrysanthemum, with associated yield and quality losses. However, under the existing certification scheme for chrysanthemum plant propagation material, the probability of spread through infected cuttings is largely reduced and the direct consequences of viroid outbreaks are expected to be minor. Minimal impact is predicted for other ornamental hosts and a minor impact for solanaceous vegetable crops. The indirect effects of CSVd are considered to be limited, with the exception of eradication. Risk reduction options addressing the sanitary status of the propagation material are likely to be the most effective and feasible. These include the current EU measures, as well as a statutory certification system with associated statutory import requirements or, failing that, but potentially less effective, the use of voluntary industry standards. It is difficult to disentangle the benefits of the current legislation from those of the industry-developed chrysanthemum certification system. The high efficacy of current measures is supported by the absence or limited presence of CSVd in the EU and by the limited number of interceptions and findings. Possible improvements to current measures are described and uncertainties discussed