Supporting surveillance capacity for antimicrobial resistance: Laboratory capacity strengthening for drug resistant infections in low and middle income countries.

Development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens our ability to treat common and life threatening infections. Identifying the emergence of AMR requires strengthening of surveillance for AMR, particularly in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where the burden of infection is highest and health systems are least able to respond. This work aimed, through a combination of desk-based investigation, discussion with colleagues worldwide, and visits to three contrasting countries (Ethiopia, Malawi and Vietnam), to map and compare existing models and surveillance systems for AMR, to examine what worked and what did not work. Current capacity for AMR surveillance varies in LMICs, but and systems in development are focussed on laboratory surveillance. This approach limits understanding of AMR and the extent to which laboratory results can inform local, national and international public health policy. An integrated model, combining clinical, laboratory and demographic surveillance in sentinel sites is more informative and costs for clinical and demographic surveillance are proportionally much lower. The speed and extent to which AMR surveillance can be strengthened depends on the functioning of the health system, and the resources available. Where there is existing laboratory capacity, it may be possible to develop 5-20 sentinel sites with a long term view of establishing comprehensive surveillance; but where health systems are weaker and laboratory infrastructure less developed, available expertise and resources may limit this to 1-2 sentinel sites. Prioritising core functions, such as automated blood cultures, reduces investment at each site. Expertise to support AMR surveillance in LMICs may come from a variety of international, or national, institutions. It is important that these organisations collaborate to support the health systems on which AMR surveillance is built, as well as improving technical capacity specifically relating to AMR surveillance. Strong collaborations, and leadership, drive successful AMR surveillance systems across countries and contexts

On the algebraic structure of conditional events: 13th European conference, ECSQARU 2015, Compiègne, France, July 15-17, 2015.

This paper initiates an investigation of conditional measures as simple measures on conditional events. As a first step towards this end we investigate the construction of conditional algebras which allow us to distinguish between the logical properties of conditional events and those of the conditional measures which we can be attached to them. This distinction, we argue, helps us clarifying both concepts

Patients with positive malaria tests not given artemisinin-based combination therapies: a research synthesis describing under-prescription of antimalarial medicines in Africa.

BACKGROUND: There has been a successful push towards parasitological diagnosis of malaria in Africa, mainly with rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs), which has reduced over-prescribing of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) to malaria test-negative patients. The effect on prescribing for test-positive patients has received much less attention. Malaria infection in endemic Africa is often most dangerous for young children and those in low-transmission settings. This study examined non-prescription of antimalarials for patients with malaria infection demonstrated by positive mRDT results, and in particular these groups who are most vulnerable to poor outcomes if antimalarials are not given. METHODS: Analysis of data from 562,762 patients in 8 studies co-designed as part of the ACT Consortium, conducted 2007-2013 in children and adults, in Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda, in a variety of public and private health care sector settings, and across a range of malaria endemic zones. RESULTS: Of 106,039 patients with positive mRDT results (median age 6 years), 7426 (7.0%) were not prescribed an ACT antimalarial. The proportion of mRDT-positive patients not prescribed ACT ranged across sites from 1.3 to 37.1%. For patients under age 5 years, 3473/44,539 (7.8%) were not prescribed an ACT, compared with 3833/60,043 (6.4%) of those aged ≥ 5 years. The proportion of < 5-year-olds not prescribed ACT ranged up to 41.8% across sites. The odds of not being prescribed an ACT were 2-32 times higher for patients in settings with lower-transmission intensity (using test positivity as a proxy) compared to areas of higher transmission. mRDT-positive children in low-transmission settings were especially likely not to be prescribed ACT, with proportions untreated up to 70%. Of the 7426 mRDT-positive patients not prescribed an ACT, 4121 (55.5%) were prescribed other, non-recommended non-ACT antimalarial medications, and the remainder (44.5%) were prescribed no antimalarial. CONCLUSIONS: In eight studies of mRDT implementation in five African countries, substantial proportions of patients testing mRDT-positive were not prescribed an ACT antimalarial, and many were not prescribed an antimalarial at all. Patients most vulnerable to serious outcomes, children < 5 years and those in low-transmission settings, were most likely to not be prescribed antimalarials, and young children in low-transmission settings were least likely to be treated for malaria. This major public health risk must be addressed in training and practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Reported in individual primary studies

The Effectiveness and Micro-costing Analysis of a Universal, School-Based, Social–Emotional Learning Programme in the UK: A Cluster-Randomised Controlled Trial

There are a growing number of school-based interventions designed to promote children’s social and emotional learning. One such intervention, PATHS (Promoting Alternative Thinking Strategies), was evaluated in a randomised controlled trial involving 5074 pupils aged 4–6 years at baseline in 56 primary schools across a large city in the UK. The programme was implemented for two academic years. The primary outcome measure was the teacher-rated Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). A secondary measure was the PATHS Teacher Rating Scale (PTRS). Observations of child and teacher behaviours were undertaken in a third of intervention and control schools using the Teacher–Pupil Observation Tool (T-POT). Regarding fidelity, dose and adherence were measured via weekly logs completed by teachers, and a semi-structured questionnaire completed by PATHS coaches was used as a global measure of fidelity (capturing adherence, dose and quality). A cost-consequence analysis examined programme costs from a multi-agency public sector perspective. At 1 year post-baseline, there were no statistically significant differences between the programme and control groups on the SDQ subscales or the SDQ total difficulties and impact scores. There were statistically significant differences favouring the programme group for six out of 11 subscales on the secondary outcome measure (PTRS). At 2 years post-baseline, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups on either measure. Fidelity, according to the global measure, was relatively strong, and there was no relationship between fidelity and treatment effects. The average cost of PATHS was £12,666 per school or £139 per child. The study, which was fully powered and independent of the programme developer, shows no statistically significant effect of the programme on child behaviour or emotional well-being. Trial registration site and number: www.controlled-trials.com: ISRCTN 32534848

Improving prescribing practices with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs): synthesis of 10 studies to explore reasons for variation in malaria RDT uptake and adherence.

OBJECTIVES: The overuse of antimalarial drugs is widespread. Effective methods to improve prescribing practice remain unclear. We evaluated the impact of 10 interventions that introduced rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (mRDTs) on the use of tests and adherence to results in different contexts. DESIGN: A comparative case study approach, analysing variation in outcomes across different settings. SETTING: Studies from the ACT Consortium evaluating mRDTs with a range of supporting interventions in 6 malaria endemic countries. Providers were governmental or non-governmental healthcare workers, private retail sector workers or community volunteers. Each study arm in a distinct setting was considered a case. PARTICIPANTS: 28 cases from 10 studies were included, representing 148 461 patients seeking care for suspected malaria. INTERVENTIONS: The interventions included different mRDT training packages, supervision, supplies and community sensitisation. OUTCOME MEASURES: Analysis explored variation in: (1) uptake of mRDTs (% febrile patients tested); (2) provider adherence to positive mRDTs (% Plasmodium falciparum positive prescribed/given Artemisinin Combination Treatment); (3) provider adherence to negative mRDTs (% P. falciparum negative not prescribed/given antimalarial). RESULTS: Outcomes varied widely across cases: 12-100% mRDT uptake; 44-98% adherence to positive mRDTs; 27-100% adherence to negative mRDTs. Providers appeared more motivated to perform well when mRDTs and intervention characteristics fitted with their own priorities. Goodness of fit of mRDTs with existing consultation and diagnostic practices appeared crucial to maximising the impact of mRDTs on care, as did prior familiarity with malaria testing; adequate human resources and supplies; possible alternative treatments for mRDT-negative patients; a more directive intervention approach and local preferences for ACTs. CONCLUSIONS: Basic training and resources are essential but insufficient to maximise the potential of mRDTs in many contexts. Programme design should respond to assessments of provider priorities, expectations and capacities. As mRDTs become established, the intensity of supporting interventions required seems likely to reduce

Association between maternal depression symptoms across the first eleven years of their child’s life and subsequent offspring suicidal ideation

Depression is common, especially in women of child-bearing age; prevalence estimates for this group range from 8% to 12%, and there is robust evidence that maternal depression is associated with mental health problems in offspring. Suicidal behaviour is a growing concern amongst young people and those exposed to maternal depression are likely to be especially at high risk. The aim of this study was to utilise a large, prospective population cohort to examine the relationship between depression symptom trajectories in mothers over the first eleven years of their child’s life and subsequent adolescent suicidal ideation. An additional aim was to test if associations were explained by maternal suicide attempt and offspring depressive disorder. Data were utilised from a population-based birth cohort: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Maternal depression symptoms were assessed repeatedly from pregnancy to child age 11 years. Offspring suicidal ideation was assessed at age 16 years. Using multiple imputation, data for 10,559 families were analysed. Using latent class growth analysis, five distinct classes of maternal depression symptoms were identified (minimal, mild, increasing, sub-threshold, chronic-severe). The prevalence of past-year suicidal ideation at age 16 years was 15% (95% CI: 14-17%). Compared to offspring of mothers with minimal symptoms, the greatest risk of suicidal ideation was found for offspring of mothers with chronic-severe symptoms [OR 3.04 (95% CI 2.19,4.21)], with evidence for smaller increases in risk of suicidal ideation in offspring of mothers with sub-threshold, increasing and mild symptoms. These associations were not fully accounted for by maternal suicide attempt or offspring depression diagnosis. Twenty-six percent of non-depressed offspring of mothers with chronic-severe depression symptoms reported suicidal ideation. Risk for suicidal ideation should be considered in young people whose mothers have a history of sustained high levels of depression symptoms, even when the offspring themselves do not have a depression diagnosis

The null hypothesis significance test in health sciences research (1995-2006): statistical analysis and interpretation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The null hypothesis significance test (NHST) is the most frequently used statistical method, although its inferential validity has been widely criticized since its introduction. In 1988, the <it>International Committee of Medical Journal Editors </it>(ICMJE) warned against sole reliance on NHST to substantiate study conclusions and suggested supplementary use of confidence intervals (CI). Our objective was to evaluate the extent and quality in the use of NHST and CI, both in English and Spanish language biomedical publications between 1995 and 2006, taking into account the <it>International Committee of Medical Journal Editors </it>recommendations, with particular focus on the accuracy of the interpretation of statistical significance and the validity of conclusions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Original articles published in three English and three Spanish biomedical journals in three fields (General Medicine, Clinical Specialties and Epidemiology - Public Health) were considered for this study. Papers published in 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006 were selected through a systematic sampling method. After excluding the purely descriptive and theoretical articles, analytic studies were evaluated for their use of NHST with P-values and/or CI for interpretation of statistical "significance" and "relevance" in study conclusions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 1,043 original papers, 874 were selected for detailed review. The exclusive use of P-values was less frequent in English language publications as well as in Public Health journals; overall such use decreased from 41% in 1995-1996 to 21% in 2005-2006. While the use of CI increased over time, the "significance fallacy" (to equate statistical and substantive significance) appeared very often, mainly in journals devoted to clinical specialties (81%). In papers originally written in English and Spanish, 15% and 10%, respectively, mentioned statistical significance in their conclusions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall, results of our review show some improvements in statistical management of statistical results, but further efforts by scholars and journal editors are clearly required to move the communication toward ICMJE advices, especially in the clinical setting, which seems to be imperative among publications in Spanish.</p