Predicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices

BACKGROUND: Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. RESULTS: Baseline scenario calculations show that close to 200 mil ha or around 5% of todays forest area will be lost between 2006 and 2025, resulting in a release of additional 17.5 GtC. Today's forest cover will shrink by around 500 million hectares, which is 1/8 of the current forest cover, within the next 100 years. The accumulated carbon release during the next 100 years amounts to 45 GtC, which is 15% of the total carbon stored in forests today. Incentives of 6 US$/tC for vulnerable standing biomass payed every 5 year will bring deforestation down by 50$/year. On the other hand a carbon tax of 12 $/tC harvested forest biomass will also cut deforestation by half. The tax income will, if enforced, decrease from 6 billion US$ in 2005 to 4.3 billion US$in 2025 and 0.7 billion US$ in 2100 due to decreasing deforestation speed. CONCLUSION: Avoiding deforestation requires financial mechanisms that make retention of forests economically competitive with the currently often preferred option to seek profits from other land uses. Incentive payments need to be at a very high level to be effective against deforestation. Taxes on the other hand will extract budgetary revenues from the regions which are already poor. A combination of incentives and taxes could turn out to be a viable solution for this problem. Increasing the value of forest land and thereby make it less easily prone to deforestation would act as a strong incentive to increase productivity of agricultural and fuelwood production, which could be supported by revenues generated by the deforestation tax

Imagining the future at the global and national scale: a comparative study of British and Dutch press coverage of Rio 1992 and Rio 2012

Climate change and imagined futures are intricately linked, discussed by policymakers and reported in the media. In this article we focus on the construction of future expectation in the press coverage of the 1992 and 2012 United Nations conferences in Rio de Janeiro in British and Dutch national newspapers. We use a novel combination of methods, semantic co-word networks and metaphor analysis to analyse imagined futures. Our findings show that between 1992 and 2012 there was a switch from future-oriented hope to past-oriented disappointment regarding implementing international agreements on climate change policy. While the UK focused on global issues, the Netherlands focused on national (including colonial) and local ones, reflecting different views and expectations about the future of climate change adaptation and mitigation

Gas storage

International audienceThe continuous increase of energy demands based on fossil fuels in the last years have lead to an increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) emission which strongly contribute to global warming. The main strategies to limit this phenomenon are related to the efficient capture of these gases and to the development of renewable energies sources with limited environmental impact. Particularly, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the main constituents of greenhouse gases while hydrogen (H2) is considered an alternative clean energy source to fossil fuels. Therefore, tremendous research to store these gases has been reported by several approaches and among them the physisorption on activated carbons (AC) have received significant attention. Their abundance, low cost and tunable porous structure and chemical functionalities with an existing wide range of precursors that includes bio-wastes make them ideal candidates for gas applications. This chapter presents the recent developments on CH4, CO2 and H2 storage by activated carbons with focus on biomass as precursor materials. An analysis of the main carbon properties affecting the AC's adsorption capacity (i.e. specific surface area, pore size and surface chemistry) is discussed in detail herein

Vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to global change

International audienceAimGlobal changes are predicted to have severe consequences for biodiversity; 34 biodiversity hotspots have become international priorities for conservation, with important efforts allocated to their preservation, but the potential effects of global changes on hotspots have so far received relatively little attention. We investigate whether hotspots are quantitatively and qualitatively threatened to the same order of magnitude by the combined effects of global changes. LocationWorldwide, in 34 biodiversity hotspots. MethodsWe quantify (1) the exposure of hotspots to climate change, by estimating the novelty of future climates and the disappearance of extant climates using climate dissimilarity analyses, (2) each hotspot's vulnerability to land modification and degradation by quantifying changes in land-cover variables over the entire habitat, and (3) the future suitability of distribution ranges of 100 of the world's worst invasive alien species', by characterizing the combined effects of climate and land-use changes on the future distribution ranges of these species. ResultsOur findings show that hotspots may experience an average loss of 31% of their area under analogue climate, with some hotspots more affected than others (e.g. Polynesia-Micronesia). The greatest climate change was projected in low-latitude hotspots. The hotspots were on average suitable for 17% of the considered invasive species. Hotspots that are mainly islands or groups of islands were disproportionally suitable for a high number of invasive species both currently and in the future. We also showed that hotspots will increase their area of pasture in the future. Finally, combining the three threats, we identified the Atlantic forest, Cape Floristic Region and Polynesia-Micronesia as particularly vulnerable to global changes. Main conclusionsGiven our estimates of hotspot vulnerability to changes, close monitoring is now required to evaluate the biodiversity responses to future changes and to test our projections against observations