Equation-Free Multiscale Computational Analysis of Individual-Based Epidemic Dynamics on Networks

The surveillance, analysis and ultimately the efficient long-term prediction and control of epidemic dynamics appear to be one of the major challenges nowadays. Detailed atomistic mathematical models play an important role towards this aim. In this work it is shown how one can exploit the Equation Free approach and optimization methods such as Simulated Annealing to bridge detailed individual-based epidemic simulation with coarse-grained, systems-level, analysis. The methodology provides a systematic approach for analyzing the parametric behavior of complex/ multi-scale epidemic simulators much more efficiently than simply simulating forward in time. It is shown how steady state and (if required) time-dependent computations, stability computations, as well as continuation and numerical bifurcation analysis can be performed in a straightforward manner. The approach is illustrated through a simple individual-based epidemic model deploying on a random regular connected graph. Using the individual-based microscopic simulator as a black box coarse-grained timestepper and with the aid of Simulated Annealing I compute the coarse-grained equilibrium bifurcation diagram and analyze the stability of the stationary states sidestepping the necessity of obtaining explicit closures at the macroscopic level under a pairwise representation perspective

Evidence for Sequential and Increasing Activation of Replication Origins along Replication Timing Gradients in the Human Genome

Genome-wide replication timing studies have suggested that mammalian chromosomes consist of megabase-scale domains of coordinated origin firing separated by large originless transition regions. Here, we report a quantitative genome-wide analysis of DNA replication kinetics in several human cell types that contradicts this view. DNA combing in HeLa cells sorted into four temporal compartments of S phase shows that replication origins are spaced at 40 kb intervals and fire as small clusters whose synchrony increases during S phase and that replication fork velocity (mean 0.7 kb/min, maximum 2.0 kb/min) remains constant and narrowly distributed through S phase. However, multi-scale analysis of a genome-wide replication timing profile shows a broad distribution of replication timing gradients with practically no regions larger than 100 kb replicating at less than 2 kb/min. Therefore, HeLa cells lack large regions of unidirectional fork progression. Temporal transition regions are replicated by sequential activation of origins at a rate that increases during S phase and replication timing gradients are set by the delay and the spacing between successive origin firings rather than by the velocity of single forks. Activation of internal origins in a specific temporal transition region is directly demonstrated by DNA combing of the IGH locus in HeLa cells. Analysis of published origin maps in HeLa cells and published replication timing and DNA combing data in several other cell types corroborate these findings, with the interesting exception of embryonic stem cells where regions of unidirectional fork progression seem more abundant. These results can be explained if origins fire independently of each other but under the control of long-range chromatin structure, or if replication forks progressing from early origins stimulate initiation in nearby unreplicated DNA. These findings shed a new light on the replication timing program of mammalian genomes and provide a general model for their replication kinetics

Stress System Dynamics during “Life As It Is Lived”: An Integrative Single-Case Study on a Healthy Woman

Little is known about the dynamic characteristics of stress system activity during “life as it is lived”. Using as representative a study design as possible, this investigation sought to gain insights into this area. A healthy 25-year-old woman collected her entire urine over a period of 63 days in 12-h intervals (126 measurements) to determine cortisol and neopterin (immune activation marker) levels. In addition, she filled out questionnaires on emotional state and daily routine in 12-h intervals, and was interviewed weekly to identify emotionally negative and positive everyday incidents. Adjusted cross-correlational analyses revealed that stressful incidents were associated with cyclic response patterns in both urinary cortisol and urinary neopterin concentrations. Urinary cortisol levels first decreased 12–24 h after stressful incidents occurred (lag 1: −.178; p = 0.048) and then increased a total of 72–84 h later (lag 6: +.224; p = 0.013). Urinary neopterin levels first increased 0–12 h before the occurrence of stressful incidents (−lag 1: +.185; p = 0.040) and then decreased a total of 48–60 h following such stressors (lag 4: −.181; p = 0.044). Decreases in urinary neopterin levels were also found 24–36 and 48–60 h after increases in pensiveness (lag 2: −.215; p = 0.017) and depressiveness (lag 4: −.221; p = 0.014), respectively. Findings on emotionally positive incidents sharply contrasted with those dealing with negative experiences. Positive incidents were followed first by urinary cortisol concentration increases within 12 h (lag 0: +.290; p = 0.001) and then by decreases after a total of 60–72 h (lag 5: −.186; p = 0.039). Urinary neopterin levels first decreased 12–24 h before positive incidents occurred (−lag 2: −.233; p = 0.010) and then increased a total of 12–24 h following these incidents (lag 1: +.222; p = 0.014). As with previous investigations on patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), this study showed that stress system response can be considerably longer and more complex and differentiated than findings from conventional group studies have suggested. Further integrative single-case studies will need to be conducted in order to draw firm conclusions about stress system dynamics under real-life conditions

Recurrent Ischemic Stroke and Bleeding in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Suffered an Acute Stroke While on Treatment With Nonvitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants: The RENO-EXTEND Study

Background: In patients with atrial fibrillation who suffered an ischemic stroke while on treatment with nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants, rates and determinants of recurrent ischemic events and major bleedings remain uncertain. Methods: This prospective multicenter observational study aimed to estimate the rates of ischemic and bleeding events and their determinants in the follow-up of consecutive patients with atrial fibrillation who suffered an acute cerebrovascular ischemic event while on nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant treatment. Afterwards, we compared the estimated risks of ischemic and bleeding events between the patients in whom anticoagulant therapy was changed to those who continued the original treatment. Results: After a mean follow-up time of 15.0±10.9 months, 192 out of 1240 patients (15.5%) had 207 ischemic or bleeding events corresponding to an annual rate of 13.4%. Among the events, 111 were ischemic strokes, 15 systemic embolisms, 24 intracranial bleedings, and 57 major extracranial bleedings. Predictive factors of recurrent ischemic events (strokes and systemic embolisms) included CHA2DS2-VASc score after the index event (odds ratio [OR], 1.2 [95% CI, 1.0–1.3] for each point increase; P=0.05) and hypertension (OR, 2.3 [95% CI, 1.0–5.1]; P=0.04). Predictive factors of bleeding events (intracranial and major extracranial bleedings) included age (OR, 1.1 [95% CI, 1.0–1.2] for each year increase; P=0.002), history of major bleeding (OR, 6.9 [95% CI, 3.4–14.2]; P=0.0001) and the concomitant administration of an antiplatelet agent (OR, 2.8 [95% CI, 1.4–5.5]; P=0.003). Rates of ischemic and bleeding events were no different in patients who changed or not changed the original nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants treatment (OR, 1.2 [95% CI, 0.8–1.7]). Conclusions: Patients suffering a stroke despite being on nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant therapy are at high risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and bleeding. In these patients, further research is needed to improve secondary prevention by investigating the mechanisms of recurrent ischemic stroke and bleeding

Acute mountain sickness.

Acute mountain sickness (AMS) is a clinical syndrome occurring in otherwise healthy normal individuals who ascend rapidly to high altitude. Symptoms develop over a period ofa few hours or days. The usual symptoms include headache, anorexia, nausea, vomiting, lethargy, unsteadiness of gait, undue dyspnoea on moderate exertion and interrupted sleep. AMS is unrelated to physical fitness, sex or age except that young children over two years of age are unduly susceptible. One of the striking features ofAMS is the wide variation in individual susceptibility which is to some extent consistent. Some subjects never experience symptoms at any altitude while others have repeated attacks on ascending to quite modest altitudes. Rapid ascent to altitudes of 2500 to 3000m will produce symptoms in some subjects while after ascent over 23 days to 5000m most subjects will be affected, some to a marked degree. In general, the more rapid the ascent, the higher the altitude reached and the greater the physical exertion involved, the more severe AMS will be. Ifthe subjects stay at the altitude reached there is a tendency for acclimatization to occur and symptoms to remit over 1-7 days

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

Background: The EMPA KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population. Methods: EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110. Findings: Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5–2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62–0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16–1·59), representing a 50% (42–58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1). Interpretation: In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease. Funding: Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council