Preliminary Water Assessment Reports of The Test Basins of The Watch Project

This report presents the initial plans of the case studies how they link to rest of the Watch project and on which water resources they will focus. This report will function as the basis for further discussions on how to improve the integration of the case studies within the project and to develop a more general protocol for each of the case studies. Currently 5 catchments are used within the Watch project, they differ in climatic and hydro-geological features and expected climate changes: the Glomma River basin (Eastern Norway), the upper Guadiana basin (Central Spanish Plateau), the Nitra River basin (central Slovakia), the Upper-Elbe basin (part of the Elbe River) and the island of Crete. Also the water resources issues vary over these cases. Agricultural (and domestic) water use is under pressure in the Mediterranean catchments probably aggravating with the expected increase in drought frequency under future climate. The Norwegian catchment provides hydropower services under threat of precipitation increase rather than decrease. The central European catchments are threatened mainly by increased variability, i.e. increased frequencies of extremes in a densely populated environment, and river flow may need additional buffers (reservoirs) to reduce floodrisk and store water for dry period

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordData accessibility: This article has no additional data.We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.European Union FP7Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Optimal control of a multilevel DC-link converter photovoltaic system for maximum power generation

This paper describes a new algorithm for optimal control of a PV system under partial shading. A multilevel DC-link is the essential part of the proposed system and its control engages a voltage-hold perturbation and observation (VH-P&O) method combined with a PWM algorithm with permutation of PV sources. The algorithm enables achieving the maximum power generation for any number of PV and converter modules. The main features of the control are: (i) a continual operation of all PV sources, shaded and non-shaded, at their maximum power points, (ii) delivery of all extracted power from PV sources to the load and (iii) generation of multilevel output voltage waveform with a low total harmonic distortion

Climate variability impact on the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought and aridity in arid and semi-arid regions

Investigating the spatiotemporal distribution of climate data and their impact on the allocation of the regional aridity and meteorological drought, particularly in semi-arid and arid climate, it is critical to evaluate the climate variability effect and propose sufficient adaptation strategies. The coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and anomaly index were used to evaluate the climate variability, while the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope were applied for trend analysis, together with homogeneity tests. The aridity was evaluated using the alpha form of the reconnaissance drought index (Mohammed & Scholz, Water Resour Manag 31(1):531–538, 2017c), whereas drought episodes were predicted by applying three of the commonly used meteorological drought indices, which are the standardised reconnaissance drought index, standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. The Upper Zab River Basin (UZRB), which is located in the northern part of Iraq and covers a high range of climate variability, has been considered as an illustrative basin for arid and semi-arid climatic conditions. There were general increasing trends in average temperature and potential evapotranspiration and decreasing trends in precipitation from the upstream to the downstream of the UZRB. The long-term analysis of climate data indicates that the number of dry years has temporally risen and the basin has experienced succeeding years of drought, particularly after 1994/1995. There was a potential link between drought, aridity and climate variability. Pettitt’s, SNHT, Buishand’s and von Neumann’s homogeneity test results demonstrated that there is an evident alteration in the mean of the drought and aridity between the pre- and post-alteration point (1994)

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of sociohydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001)

Current Wildland Fire Patterns and Challenges in Europe: A Synthesis of National Perspectives

Changes in climate, land use, and land management impact the occurrence and severity of wildland fires in many parts of the world. This is particularly evident in Europe, where ongoing changes in land use have strongly modified fire patterns over the last decades. Although satellite data by the European Forest Fire Information System provide large-scale wildland fire statistics across European countries, there is still a crucial need to collect and summarize in-depth local analysis and understanding of the wildland fire condition and associated challenges across Europe. This article aims to provide a general overview of the current wildland fire patterns and challenges as perceived by national representatives, supplemented by national fire statistics (2009–2018) across Europe. For each of the 31 countries included, we present a perspective authored by scientists or practitioners from each respective country, representing a wide range of disciplines and cultural backgrounds. The authors were selected from members of the COST Action “Fire and the Earth System: Science & Society” funded by the European Commission with the aim to share knowledge and improve communication about wildland fire. Where relevant, a brief overview of key studies, particular wildland fire challenges a country is facing, and an overview of notable recent fire events are also presented. Key perceived challenges included (1) the lack of consistent and detailed records for wildland fire events, within and across countries, (2) an increase in wildland fires that pose a risk to properties and human life due to high population densities and sprawl into forested regions, and (3) the view that, irrespective of changes in management, climate change is likely to increase the frequency and impact of wildland fires in the coming decades. Addressing challenge (1) will not only be valuable in advancing national and pan-European wildland fire management strategies, but also in evaluating perceptions (2) and (3) against more robust quantitative evidence

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3

The role of matrix metalloproteinases in the pathophysiology and progression of human nervous system malignancies: A chance for the development of targeted therapeutic approaches?

Background: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are a group of zinc-dependent endopeptidases involved in the degradation of extracellular matrix components. MMPs have been implicated in a wide variety of physiological processes, such as angiogenesis, wound healing and tissue remodeling. However, recent studies have revealed a significant role for MMPs in tumorigenesis pathophysiology and prediction of patients' clinical outcome. Alterations in the regulation of MMP expression are thought to play an important role in the development and progression of central nervous system (CNS) malignancies. Objective/methods: This study provides an up-to-date review of the literature on the pathophysiologic involvement of MMPs in the development and progression of human CNS malignancies, as well as the potential use of natural and/or synthetic MMP-inhibitors (MMPIs) as a targeted therapeutic approach to this group of neoplasms. Results/conclusions: The currently available data provide clear evidence for the involvement of MMPs in the pathophysiology of astrocytomas, glioblastomas, meningiomas, medulloblastomas/primitive neuroectodermal tumors and pituitary tumors. The use of MMPIs in the treatment of CNS malignancies has, until now, reached controversial (but mainly disappointing) results that can nevertheless provide the basis for further investigation. The co-administration of other agents, the use of surgery and/or radiation, and elimination of the MMPIs-induced adverse effects, as well as the use of antisense technology, might be the tools by which the natural and synthetic MMPIs could find their place in everyday clinical practice for the management of CNS malignancies. © 2008 Informa UK Ltd

Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

An assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved