Tools for Assessing Climate Impacts on Fish and Wildlife

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how climate-impacts modeling can be used to address management concerns, providing examples of model-based assessments of climate impacts on salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, fire regimes in the boreal region of Canada, prairies and savannas in the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound Trough-Georgia Basin ecoregion, and marten Martes americana populations in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. We also highlight some key limitations of these models and discuss how such limitations should be managed. We conclude with a general discussion of how these models can be integrated into fish and wildlife management

Mutational spectrum in a worldwide study of 29,700 families with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

The prevalence and spectrum of germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 have been reported in single populations, with the majority of reports focused on White in Europe and North America. The Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) has assembled data on 18,435 families with BRCA1 mutations and 11,351 families with BRCA2 mutations ascertained from 69 centers in 49 countries on six continents. This study comprehensively describes the characteristics of the 1,650 unique BRCA1 and 1,731 unique BRCA2 deleterious (disease-associated) mutations identified in the CIMBA database. We observed substantial variation in mutation type and frequency by geographical region and race/ethnicity. In addition to known founder mutations, mutations of relatively high frequency were identified in specific racial/ethnic or geographic groups that may reflect founder mutations and which could be used in targeted (panel) first pass genotyping for specific populations. Knowledge of the population-specific mutational spectrum in BRCA1 and BRCA2 could inform efficient strategies for genetic testing and may justify a more broad-based oncogenetic testing in some populations

Psychosocial impact of undergoing prostate cancer screening for men with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

OBJECTIVES: To report the baseline results of a longitudinal psychosocial study that forms part of the IMPACT study, a multi-national investigation of targeted prostate cancer (PCa) screening among men with a known pathogenic germline mutation in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. PARTICPANTS AND METHODS: Men enrolled in the IMPACT study were invited to complete a questionnaire at collaborating sites prior to each annual screening visit. The questionnaire included sociodemographic characteristics and the following measures: the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), Impact of Event Scale (IES), 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36), Memorial Anxiety Scale for Prostate Cancer, Cancer Worry Scale-Revised, risk perception and knowledge. The results of the baseline questionnaire are presented. RESULTS: A total of 432 men completed questionnaires: 98 and 160 had mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, respectively, and 174 were controls (familial mutation negative). Participants' perception of PCa risk was influenced by genetic status. Knowledge levels were high and unrelated to genetic status. Mean scores for the HADS and SF-36 were within reported general population norms and mean IES scores were within normal range. IES mean intrusion and avoidance scores were significantly higher in BRCA1/BRCA2 carriers than in controls and were higher in men with increased PCa risk perception. At the multivariate level, risk perception contributed more significantly to variance in IES scores than genetic status. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to report the psychosocial profile of men with BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations undergoing PCa screening. No clinically concerning levels of general or cancer-specific distress or poor quality of life were detected in the cohort as a whole. A small subset of participants reported higher levels of distress, suggesting the need for healthcare professionals offering PCa screening to identify these risk factors and offer additional information and support to men seeking PCa screening

Landscape vegetation change, pattern detection, and interpretation in a subalpine fir forest infested with balsam woolly adelgid

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015Invasive insects and pathogens, climate change, and anthropogenic factors are causing broad-scale change in forest ecosystems. Identifying, understanding, and maintaining historic and functioning ecosystems in changing landscapes can be challenging because multiple internal and external factors interact across scales. In this dissertation, I present a hierarchical approach to investigate patterns of health and mortality of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook) Nutt. var. lasiocarpa) associated with a non-native herbivorous insect, the balsam woolly adelgid (BWA), Adelges piceae Ratzeburg, and landscape disturbance on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, U.S.A. Assessment across broad and fine spatial and temporal scales allowed the identification of distinct boundaries of change associated with climate, topography, vegetation, and disturbance processes of fire, winter weather events, mass movement, and endemic and introduced insects and pathogens. I used Landsat imagery at broad spatial and temporal scales to differentiate patterns of very-high-, high-, and low-magnitude disturbance in subalpine-fir forest using the normalized burn ratio (NBR). Low-magnitude decline in NBR gradually increased in area over time (1994-2007) and occurred predominantly at high elevations and southern aspects during years of warm PDO index values, suggesting interactive effects of an invasive biotic agent and climate. I conducted field studies that identified BWA as the biotic agent that was consistently present in affected areas and associated with poor health and mortality of subalpine fir. Using dendrochronology, I determined that variability in the growth of subalpine fir was positively associated with the arrival of BWA in a forest along Hurricane Ridge in Olympic National Park. I compared aerial detection surveys, Landsat imagery, and dendrochronology methods and confirmed that all three methods independently detected effects of BWA for the same time period. These methods provided a more complete assessment that would not have been possible with one method alone. This dissertation demonstrates the utility of a hierarchical approach that combines remote sensing and field validation to detect patterns of disturbance and identify potential fine- and broad-scale causal mechanisms of forest change