Toward a Framework for Outcome-Based Analytical Performance Specifications: A Methodology Review of Indirect Methods for Evaluating the Impact of Measurement Uncertainty on Clinical Outcomes

Background: For medical tests that have a central role in clinical decision-making, current guidelines advocate outcome-based analytical performance specifications. Given that empirical (clinical-trial style) analyses are often impractical or unfeasible in this context, the ability to set such specifications is expected to rely on indirect studies to calculate the impact of test measurement uncertainty on downstream clinical, operational and economic outcomes. Currently however, a lack of awareness and guidance concerning available alternative indirect methods is limiting the production of outcome-based specifications. Our aim therefore was to review available indirect methods and present an analytical framework to inform future outcome-based performance goals. Content: A methodology review consisting of database searches and extensive citation tracking was conducted to identify studies using indirect methods to incorporate or evaluate the impact of test measurement uncertainty on downstream outcomes (including clinical accuracy, clinical utility and/or costs). Eighty-two studies were identified, most of which evaluated the impact of imprecision and/or bias on clinical accuracy. A common analytical framework underpinning the various methods was identified, consisting of three key steps: (1) calculation of “true” test values; (2) calculation of measured test values (incorporating uncertainty); and (3) calculation of the impact of discrepancies between (1) and (2) on specified outcomes. A summary of the methods adopted is provided, and key considerations discussed. Conclusions: Various approaches are available for conducting indirect assessments to inform outcome-based performance specifications. This study provides an overview of methods and key considerations to inform future studies and research in this area

The Up-Scale Manufacture of Chondrocytes for Allogeneic Cartilage Therapies

Background: Allogeneic chondrocyte therapies need to be developed to allow more individuals to be treated with a cell therapy for cartilage repair and to reduce the burden and cost of current two-stage autologous procedures. Up-scale manufacture of chondrocytes using a bioreactor could help provide an off-the-shelf allogeneic chondrocyte therapy with many doses being produced in a single manufacturing run. Here we assess a Good Manufacturing Practice compliant hollow-fibre bioreactor (Quantum®) for adult chondrocyte manufacture. Methods: Chondrocytes were isolated from knee arthroplasty derived cartilage (n=5) and expanded in media supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (FBS) or 5% human platelet lysate (hPL) on tissue culture plastic (TCP) for a single passage. hPL supplemented cultures were then expanded in the Quantum® bioreactor for a further passage. Matched, parallel cultures in hPL or FBS were maintained on TCP. Chondrocytes from all culture conditions were characterised in terms of growth kinetics, morphology, immunoprofile, chondrogenic potential (chondrocyte pellet assays) and single telomere length analysis. Results: Quantum® expansion of chondrocytes resulted in 86.4±38.5x106 cells in 8.4±1.5 days, following seeding of 10.2±3.6 x106 cells. This related to 3.0±1.0 population doublings in the Quantum® bioreactor, compared with 2.1±0.6 and 1.3±1.0 on TCP in hPL and FBS supplemented media, respectively. Quantum® and TCP expanded cultures retained equivalent chondropotency and mesenchymal stromal cell markers immunoprofiles, with only integrin marker, CD49a, decreasing following Quantum® expansion. Quantum® expanded chondrocytes demonstrated equivalent chondrogenic potential (as assessed by ability to form and maintain chondrogenic pellets) with matched hPL TCP populations. hPL manufacture however, led to reduced chondrogenic potential and increased cell surface positivity of integrins CD49b, CD49c and CD51/61 compared with FBS cultures. Quantum® expansion of chondrocytes did not result in shortened 17p telomere length when compared with matched TCP cultures. Discussion: This study demonstrates that large numbers of adult chondrocytes can be manufactured in the Quantum® hollow-fibre bioreactor. This rapid, up-scale expansion, does not alter chondrocyte phenotype when compared with matched TCP expansion. Therefore, the Quantum® provides an attractive method of manufacturing chondrocytes for clinical use. Media supplementation with hPL for chondrocyte expansion may, however, be unfavourable in terms of retaining chondrogenic capacity

Maintaining independence in individuals with dementia at home after a fall:a protocol for the UK pilot cluster randomised controlled trial MAINTAIN

Introduction: Individuals with dementia face an increased risk of falls. Falls can cause a decline in the individual’s overall functionality. All types of falls, including those that do not result in injury, can lead to psychosocial consequences, such as diminished confidence and a fear of falling. Projections indicate a rising trend in dementia diagnoses, implying an increase in fall incidents. Yet, there is a lack of evidence to support interventions for people living with dementia who have fallen. Our objective is to test the feasibility of a falls intervention trial for people with dementia. Method and analysis: This is a UK-based two-arm pilot cluster randomised controlled trial. In this study, six collaborating sites, which form the clusters, will be randomly allocated to either the intervention arm or the control arm (receiving treatment as usual) at a 1:1 ratio. During the 6 month recruitment phase, each cluster will enrol 10 dyads, comprising 10 individuals with dementia and their respective carers, leading to a total sample size of 60 dyads. The primary outcomes are the feasibility parameters for a full trial (ie, percentage consented, follow-up rate and cost framework). Secondary outcomes include activities of daily living, quality of life, fall efficacy, mobility, goal attainment, cognitive status, occurrence of falls, carer burden and healthcare service utilisation. Outcome measures will be collected at baseline and 28 weeks, with an additional assessment scheduled at 12 weeks for the healthcare service utilisation questionnaire. An embedded process evaluation, consisting of interviews and observations with participants and healthcare professionals, will explore how the intervention operates and the fidelity of study processes. Ethics and dissemination: The study was approved by the NHS and local authority research governance and research ethics committees (NHS REC reference: 23/WA/0126). The results will be shared at meetings and conferences and will be published in peer-reviewed journals. Trial registration number: ISRCTN16413728

NETIMIS: Dynamic Simulation of Health Economics Outcomes Using Big Data

Many healthcare organizations are now making good use of electronic health record (EHR) systems to record clinical information about their patients and the details of their healthcare. Electronic data in EHRs is generated by people engaged in complex processes within complex environments, and their human input, albeit shaped by computer systems, is compromised by many human factors. These data are potentially valuable to health economists and outcomes researchers but are sufficiently large and complex enough to be considered part of the new frontier of ‘big data’. This paper describes emerging methods that draw together data mining, process modelling, activity-based costing and dynamic simulation models. Our research infrastructure includes safe links to Leeds hospital’s EHRs with 3 million secondary and tertiary care patients. We created a multidisciplinary team of health economists, clinical specialists, and data and computer scientists, and developed a dynamic simulation tool called NETIMIS (Network Tools for Intervention Modelling with Intelligent Simulation; http://www.netimis.com) suitable for visualization of both human-designed and data-mined processes which can then be used for ‘what-if’ analysis by stakeholders interested in costing, designing and evaluating healthcare interventions. We present two examples of model development to illustrate how dynamic simulation can be informed by big data from an EHR. We found the tool provided a focal point for multidisciplinary team work to help them iteratively and collaboratively ‘deep dive’ into big data

Effect of rituximab on a salivary gland ultrasound score in primary Sjögren’s syndrome: results of the TRACTISS randomised double-blind multicentre substudy

Objectives To compare the effects of rituximab versus placebo on salivary gland ultrasound (SGUS) in primary Sjögren’s syndrome (PSS) in a multicentre, multiobserver phase III trial substudy. Methods Subjects consenting to SGUS were randomised to rituximab or placebo given at weeks 0, 2, 24 and 26, and scanned at baseline and weeks 16 and 48. Sonographers completed a 0–11 total ultrasound score (TUS) comprising domains of echogenicity, homogeneity, glandular definition, glands involved and hypoechoic foci size. Baseline-adjusted TUS values were analysed over time, modelling change from baseline at each time point. For each TUS domain, we fitted a repeated-measures logistic regression model to model the odds of a response in the rituximab arm (≥1-point improvement) as a function of the baseline score, age category, disease duration and time point. Results 52 patients (n=26 rituximab and n=26 placebo) from nine centres completed baseline and one or more follow-up visits. Estimated between-group differences (rituximab-placebo) in baseline-adjusted TUS were −1.2 (95% CI −2.1 to −0.3; P=0.0099) and −1.2 (95% CI −2.0 to −0.5; P=0.0023) at weeks 16 and 48. Glandular definition improved in the rituximab arm with an OR of 6.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 43.0; P=0.043) at week 16 and 10.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 105.9; P=0.050) at week 48. Conclusions We demonstrated statistically significant improvement in TUS after rituximab compared with placebo. This encourages further research into both B cell depletion therapies in PSS and SGUS as an imaging biomarker

Levofloxacin prophylaxis in patients with newly diagnosed myeloma (TEAMM): a multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Myeloma causes profound immunodeficiency and recurrent, serious infections. Around 5500 new cases of myeloma are diagnosed per year in the UK, and a quarter of patients will have a serious infection within 3 months of diagnosis. We aimed to assess whether patients newly diagnosed with myeloma benefit from antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent infection, and to investigate the effect on antibiotic-resistant organism carriage and health care-associated infections in patients with newly diagnosed myeloma. METHODS: TEAMM was a prospective, multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial in patients aged 21 years and older with newly diagnosed myeloma in 93 UK hospitals. All enrolled patients were within 14 days of starting active myeloma treatment. We randomly assigned patients (1:1) to levofloxacin or placebo with a computerised minimisation algorithm. Allocation was stratified by centre, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and intention to proceed to high-dose chemotherapy with autologous stem cell transplantation. All investigators, patients, laboratory, and trial co-ordination staff were masked to the treatment allocation. Patients were given 500 mg of levofloxacin (two 250 mg tablets), orally once daily for 12 weeks, or placebo tablets (two tablets, orally once daily for 12 weeks), with dose reduction according to estimated glomerular filtration rate every 4 weeks. Follow-up visits occurred every 4 weeks up to week 16, and at 1 year. The primary outcome was time to first febrile episode or death from all causes within the first 12 weeks of trial treatment. All randomised patients were included in an intention-to-treat analysis of the primary endpoint. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN51731976, and the EU Clinical Trials Register, number 2011-000366-35. FINDINGS: Between Aug 15, 2012, and April 29, 2016, we enrolled and randomly assigned 977 patients to receive levofloxacin prophylaxis (489 patients) or placebo (488 patients). Median follow-up was 12 months (IQR 8-13). 95 (19%) first febrile episodes or deaths occurred in 489 patients in the levofloxacin group versus 134 (27%) in 488 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·66, 95% CI 0·51-0·86; p=0·0018. 597 serious adverse events were reported up to 16 weeks from the start of trial treatment (308 [52%] of which were in the levofloxacin group and 289 [48%] of which were in the placebo group). Serious adverse events were similar between the two groups except for five episodes (1%) of mostly reversible tendonitis in the levofloxacin group. INTERPRETATION: Addition of prophylactic levofloxacin to active myeloma treatment during the first 12 weeks of therapy significantly reduced febrile episodes and deaths compared with placebo without increasing health care-associated infections. These results suggest that prophylactic levofloxacin could be used for patients with newly diagnosed myeloma undergoing anti-myeloma therapy. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research

A systematic review of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer education and peer support in prisons.

BACKGROUND: Prisoners experience significantly worse health than the general population. This review examines the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer interventions in prison settings. METHODS: A mixed methods systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies, including qualitative and quantitative synthesis was conducted. In addition to grey literature identified and searches of websites, nineteen electronic databases were searched from 1985 to 2012. Study selection criteria were: Population: Prisoners resident in adult prisons and children resident in Young Offender Institutions (YOIs). INTERVENTION: Peer-based interventions Comparators: Review questions 3 and 4 compared peer and professionally led approaches. OUTCOMES: Prisoner health or determinants of health; organisational/ process outcomes; views of prison populations. STUDY DESIGNS: Quantitative, qualitative and mixed method evaluations. RESULTS: Fifty-seven studies were included in the effectiveness review and one study in the cost-effectiveness review; most were of poor methodological quality. Evidence suggested that peer education interventions are effective at reducing risky behaviours, and that peer support services are acceptable within the prison environment and have a positive effect on recipients, practically or emotionally. Consistent evidence from many, predominantly qualitative, studies, suggested that being a peer deliverer was associated with positive effects. There was little evidence on cost-effectiveness of peer-based interventions. CONCLUSIONS: There is consistent evidence from a large number of studies that being a peer worker is associated with positive health; peer support services are also an acceptable source of help within the prison environment and can have a positive effect on recipients. Research into cost-effectiveness is sparse. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ref: CRD42012002349

A programme theory for liaison mental health services in England

Background: Mechanisms by which liaison mental health services (LMHS) may bring about improved patient and organisational outcomes are poorly understood. A small number of logic models have been developed, but they fail to capture the complexity of clinical practice. Method: We synthesised data from a variety of sources including a large national survey, 73 in-depth interviews with acute and liaison staff working in hospitals with different types of liaison mental health services, and relevant local, national and international literature. We generated logic models for two common performance indicators used to assess organisational outcomes for LMHS: response times in the emergency department and hospital length of stay for people with mental health problems. Results: We identified 8 areas of complexity that influence performance, and 6 trade-offs which drove the models in different directions depending upon the balance of the trade-off. The logic models we developed could only be captured by consideration of more than one pass through the system, the complexity in which they operated, and the trade-offs that occurred. Conclusions: Our findings are important for commissioners of liaison services. Reliance on simple target setting may result in services that are unbalanced and not patient-centred. Targets need to be reviewed on a regular basis, together with other data that reflect the wider impact of the service, and any external changes in the system that affect the performance of LMHS, which are beyond their control

A web-based intervention (RESTORE) to support self-management of cancer-related fatigue following primary cancer treatment: a multi-centre proof of concept randomised controlled trial

Purpose: Cancer-related fatigue (CRF) is a frequent and distressing symptom experienced after cancer treatment. RESTORE is the first web-based resource designed to enhance self-efficacy to manage CRF following curative-intent treatment. The aim of this study is to test the proof of concept and inform the design of an effectiveness trial. Methods: A multi-centre parallel-group two-armed (1:1) exploratory randomised controlled trial (RCT) with qualitative process evaluation was employed in the study. Participants (≥18 years; ≤5 years post treatment with moderate to severe fatigue) were recruited and randomly assigned to RESTORE or a leaflet. Feasibility and acceptability were measured by recruitment, attrition, intervention adherence, completion of outcome measures and process evaluation. Change in self-efficacy to manage CRF was also explored. Outcome measures were completed at baseline (T0), 6 weeks (T1) and 12 weeks (T2). Data were analysed using mixed-effects linear regression and directed content analysis. Results: One hundred and sixty-three people participated in the trial and 19 in the process evaluation. The intervention was feasible (39 % of eligible patients consented) and acceptable (attrition rate 36 %). There was evidence of higher fatigue self-efficacy at T1 in the intervention group vs comparator (mean difference 0.51 [−0.08 to 1.11]), though the difference in groups decreased by 12 weeks. Time since diagnosis influenced perceived usefulness of the intervention. Modifications were suggested. Conclusion: Proof of concept was achieved. The RESTORE intervention should be subject to a definitive trial with some adjustments. Provision of an effective supportive resource would empower cancer survivors to manage CRF after treatment completion

Research Exploring Physical Activity in Care Homes (REACH): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: As life expectancy increases and the number of older people, particularly those aged 85 years and over, expands there is an increase in demand for long-term care. A large proportion of people in a care home setting spend most of their time sedentary, and this is one of the leading preventable causes of death. Encouraging residents to engage in more physical activity could deliver benefits in terms of physical and psychological health, and quality of life. This study is the final stage of a programme of research to develop and preliminarily test an evidence-based intervention designed to enhance opportunities for movement amongst care home residents, thereby increasing levels of physical activity. Methods/design: This is a cluster randomised feasibility trial, aiming to recruit at least 8–12 residents at each of 12 residential care homes across Yorkshire, UK. Care homes will be randomly allocated on a 1:1 basis to receive either the intervention alongside usual care, or to continue to provide usual care alone. Assessment will be undertaken with participating residents at baseline (prior to care home randomisation) and at 3, 6, and 9 months post-randomisation. Data relating to changes in physical activity, physical function, level of cognitive impairment, mood, perceived health and wellbeing, and quality of life will be collected. Data at the level of the home will also be collected and will include staff experience of care, and changes in the numbers and types of adverse events residents experience (for example, hospital admissions, falls). Details of National Health Service (NHS) usage will be collected to inform the economic analysis. An embedded process evaluation will obtain information to test out the theory of change underpinning the intervention and its acceptability to staff and residents. Discussion: This feasibility trial with embedded process evaluation and collection of health economic data will allow us to undertake detailed feasibility work to inform a future large-scale trial. It will provide valuable information to inform research procedures in this important but challenging area