Essai sur l’évolution démographique du Québec de 1534 à 2034

Personne n’a encore évalué les composantes de l’accroissement de la population totale du Québec depuis Jacques Cartier. Le caractère original de ce périlleux exercice consiste principalement à intégrer les effectifs autochtones. En dépit des nombreuses hypothèses et approximations, les résultats portant sur 450 ans ne s’éloignent sans doute pas beaucoup de la réalité. Quelque 15 millions et demi de personnes ont vécu au Québec depuis 1534. Parmi elles, quatre sur cinq sont nées sur place. L’incertitude apparaît beaucoup plus grande à l’échelle de chaque demi-siècle, surtout avant 1884. L’évaluation de l’immigration reste fort délicate, y compris pour les périodes les plus récentes. De 1934 à 1984 seulement, les immigrants, tout comme les émigrants d’ailleurs, surpassent en nombre la population totale de 1884. De tels aperçus statistiques font ressortir le caractère relatif des principaux faits de notre histoire démographique.No one has, to date, evaluated the components of growth of the total population of Quebec, during the years since Jacques Cartier. The distinguishing feature of this risky exercise consists mainly in integrating the number of natives into the total population. In spite of numerous hypotheses and estimations, the results for the whole of the 450 year period are probably not very different from reality: some 15.5 million people have lived in Quebec since 1534, and among these, four out of five were born in Quebec. There is more uncertainty on the scale of each half-century, especially prior to 1884. The assessment of immigration remains very frail even during the most recent periods. Over the 1934 to 1984 period alone, the immigrants, as well as the emigrants, exceed in number the total population of 1884. Such statistical overviews emphasize the relative nature of the main events of our demographic history.Nadie ha calculado todavía los componentes del crecimiento de la población global de Quebec desde los tiempos de Jacques Cartier. La originalidad de esta tarea nada fácil consiste, ante todo, en incorporar a la población autóctona. A pesar de la abundancia de hipótesis y de estimaciones aproximadas, no cabe duda que los resultados, refiriendose a los cinco siglos en su conjunto, no se apartan mucho de la realidad. Alrededor de 15 millones y medio de personas han vivido en Quebec desde 1534, entre las cuales, cuatro de cada cinco han nacido en Quebec. La incertidumbre crece en caso de que los lapsos de observación se restrinjan a cada cincuenta años, sobretodo para el período anterior a 1884. La estimación de la inmigración es todavía un asunto muy delicado, hasta para los tiempos recientes. Sólo de 1934 a 1984, los inmigrantes — tanto como los emigrantes, además — superan en cifras la población total de 1884. Tales apreciaciones estadísticas sacan a relucir el carácter relativo de los principales hechos de nuestra historia demográfica

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Numerical test of the Edwards conjecture shows that all packings are equally probable at jamming

In the late 1980s, Sam Edwards proposed a possible statistical-mechanical framework to describe the properties of disordered granular materials1. A key assumption underlying the theory was that all jammed packings are equally likely. In the intervening years it has never been possible to test this bold hypothesis directly. Here we present simulations that provide direct evidence that at the unjamming point, all packings of soft repulsive particles are equally likely, even though generically, jammed packings are not. Typically, jammed granular systems are observed precisely at the unjamming point since grains are not very compressible. Our results therefore support Edwards’ original conjecture. We also present evidence that at unjamming the configurational entropy of the system is maximal.S.M. acknowledges financial support by the Gates Cambridge Scholarship. K.J.S. acknowledges support by the Swiss National Science Foundation under Grant No. P2EZP2-152188 and No. P300P2-161078. D.F. acknowledges support by EPSRC Programme Grant EP/I001352/1 and EPSRC grant EP/I000844/1. K.R. and B.C. acknowledge the support of NSF-DMR 1409093 and the W. M. Keck Foundation

The seeds of divergence: the economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

Generally, Canada has been ignored in the literature on the colonial origins of divergence with most of the attention going to the United States. Late nineteenth century estimates of income per capita show that Canada was relatively poorer than the United States and that within Canada, the French and Catholic population of Quebec was considerably poorer. Was this gap long standing? Some evidence has been advanced for earlier periods, but it is quite limited and not well-suited for comparison with other societies. This thesis aims to contribute both to Canadian economic history and to comparative work on inequality across nations during the early modern period. With the use of novel prices and wages from Quebec—which was then the largest settlement in Canada and under French rule—a price index, a series of real wages and a measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are constructed. They are used to shed light both on the course of economic development until the French were defeated by the British in 1760 and on standards of living in that colony relative to the mother country, France, as well as the American colonies. The work is divided into three components. The first component relates to the construction of a price index. The absence of such an index has been a thorn in the side of Canadian historians as it has limited the ability of historians to obtain real values of wages, output and living standards. This index shows that prices did not follow any trend and remained at a stable level. However, there were episodes of wide swings—mostly due to wars and the monetary experiment of playing card money. The creation of this index lays the foundation of the next component. The second component constructs a standardized real wage series in the form of welfare ratios (a consumption basket divided by nominal wage rate multiplied by length of work year) to compare Canada with France, England and Colonial America. Two measures are derived. The first relies on a “bare bones” definition of consumption with a large share of land-intensive goods. This measure indicates that Canada was poorer than England and Colonial America and not appreciably richer than France. However, this measure overestimates the relative position of Canada to the Old World because of the strong presence of land-intensive goods. A second measure is created using a “respectable” definition of consumption in which the basket includes a larger share of manufactured goods and capital-intensive goods. This second basket better reflects differences in living standards since the abundance of land in Canada (and Colonial America) made it easy to achieve bare subsistence, but the scarcity of capital and skilled labor made the consumption of luxuries and manufactured goods (clothing, lighting, imported goods) highly expensive. With this measure, the advantage of New France over France evaporates and turns slightly negative. In comparison with Britain and Colonial America, the gap widens appreciably. This element is the most important for future research. By showing a reversal because of a shift to a different type of basket, it shows that Old World and New World comparisons are very sensitive to how we measure the cost of living. Furthermore, there are no sustained improvements in living standards over the period regardless of the measure used. Gaps in living standards observed later in the nineteenth century existed as far back as the seventeenth century. In a wider American perspective that includes the Spanish colonies, Canada fares better. The third component computes a new series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is to avoid problems associated with using real wages in the form of welfare ratios which assume a constant labor supply. This assumption is hard to defend in the case of Colonial Canada as there were many signs of increasing industriousness during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The GDP series suggest no long-run trend in living standards (from 1688 to circa 1765). The long peace era of 1713 to 1740 was marked by modest economic growth which offset a steady decline that had started in 1688, but by 1760 (as a result of constant warfare) living standards had sunk below their 1688 levels. These developments are accompanied by observations that suggest that other indicators of living standard declined. The flat-lining of incomes is accompanied by substantial increases in the amount of time worked, rising mortality and rising infant mortality. In addition, comparisons of incomes with the American colonies confirm the results obtained with wages— Canada was considerably poorer. At the end, a long conclusion is provides an exploratory discussion of why Canada would have diverged early on. In structural terms, it is argued that the French colony was plagued by the problem of a small population which prohibited the existence of scale effects. In combination with the fact that it was dispersed throughout the territory, the small population of New France limited the scope for specialization and economies of scale. However, this problem was in part created, and in part aggravated, by institutional factors like seigneurial tenure. The colonial origins of French America’s divergence from the rest of North America are thus partly institutional