Méthode et apports d'une intervention prospective dans une problématique de gestion des eaux : le cas du Blavet

International audienceCette communication rend compte d’une démarche engagée entre septembre 2003 et juin 2004 : l’établissement de scénarios pour l’élaboration du schéma d’aménagement et de gestion des eaux (SAGE) du Blavet. Après la phase d’état des lieux, il s’agit en effet d’une étape importante, prévue dans la méthodologie nationale des SAGE, consistant à formaliserdifférentes stratégies possibles sous forme de scénarios alternatifs. Cette étape d’analyse et de réflexion collective au sein de la commission locale de l’eau (CLE) est un préalable au choix par cette instance de la stratégie du SAGE, qui préside à sa rédaction finale

Mapping snow depth in open alpine terrain from stereo satellite imagery

International audienceTo date, there is no definitive approach to map snow depth in mountainous areas from spaceborne sensors. Here, we examine the potential of very-high-resolution (VHR) optical stereo satellites to this purpose. Two triplets of 0.70 m resolution images were acquired by the Pléiades satellite over an open alpine catchment (14.5 km2) under snow-free and snow-covered conditions. The open-source software Ame's Stereo Pipeline (ASP) was used to match the stereo pairs without ground control points to generate raw photogrammetric clouds and to convert them into high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) at 1, 2, and 4 m resolutions. The DEM differences (dDEMs) were computed after 3-D coregistration, including a correction of a −0.48 m vertical bias. The bias-corrected dDEM maps were compared to 451 snow-probe measurements. The results show a decimetric accuracy and precision in the Pléiades-derived snow depths. The median of the residuals is −0.16 m, with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.58 m at a pixel size of 2 m. We compared the 2 m Pléiades dDEM to a 2 m dDEM that was based on a winged unmanned aircraft vehicle (UAV) photogrammetric survey that was performed on the same winter date over a portion of the catchment (3.1 km2). The UAV-derived snow depth map exhibits the same patterns as the Pléiades-derived snow map, with a median of −0.11 m and a SD of 0.62 m when compared to the snow-probe measurements. The Pléiades images benefit from a very broad radiometric range (12 bits), allowing a high correlation success rate over the snow-covered areas. This study demonstrates the value of VHR stereo satellite imagery to map snow depth in remote mountainous areas even when no field data are available

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

International audienceOver the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directed influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past 60 years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identiy areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trands and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of Pyrenan valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessements of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions

Evolution of Ossoue Glacier (French Pyrenees) since the end of the Little Ice Age

International audienceLittle is known about the fluctuations of the Pyre-nean glaciers. In this study, we reconstructed the evolution of Ossoue Glacier (42 • 46 N, 0.45 km 2), which is located in the central Pyrenees, from the Little Ice Age (LIA) onwards. To do so, length, area, thickness, and mass changes in the glacier were generated from historical data sets, topo-graphical surveys, glaciological measurements (2001–2013), a ground penetrating radar (GPR) survey (2006), and stereo-scopic satellite images (2013). The glacier has receded considerably since the end of the LIA, losing 40 % of its length and 60 % of its area

Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

Exploring subtle land use and land cover changes: a framework for future landscape studies

UMR AMAP, équipe 3International audienceLand cover and land use changes can have a wide variety of ecological effects, including significant impacts on soils and water quality. In rural areas, even subtle changes in farming practices can affect landscape features and functions, and consequently the environment. Fine-scale analyses have to be performed to better understand the land cover change processes. At the same time, models of land cover change have to be developed in order to anticipate where changes are more likely to occur next. Such predictive information is essential to propose and implement sustainable and efficient environmental policies. Future landscape studies can provide a framework to forecast how land use and land cover changes is likely to react differently to subtle changes. This paper proposes a four step framework to forecast landscape futures at fine scales by coupling scenarios and landscape modelling approaches. This methodology has been tested on two contrasting agricultural landscapes located in the United States and France, to identify possible landscape changes based on forecasting and backcasting agriculture intensification scenarios. Both examples demonstrate that relatively subtle land cover and land use changes can have a large impact on future landscapes. Results highlight how such subtle changes have to be considered in term of quantity, location, and frequency of land use and land cover to appropriately assess environmental impacts on water pollution (France) and soil erosion (US). The results highlight opportunities for improvements in landscape modelling

A Holistic Landscape Description Reveals That Landscape Configuration Changes More over Time than Composition: Implications for Landscape Ecology Studies

International audienceBackground: Space-for-time substitution—that is, the assumption that spatial variations of a system can explain and predict the effect of temporal variations—is widely used in ecology. However, it is questionable whether it can validly be used to explain changes in biodiversity over time in response to land-cover changes.Hypothesis: ere, we hypothesize that different temporal vs spatial trajectories of landscape composition and configuration may limit space-for-time substitution in landscape ecology. Land-cover conversion changes not just the surface areas given over to particular types of land cover, but also affects isolation, patch size and heterogeneity. This means that a small change in land cover over time may have only minor repercussions on landscape composition but potentially major consequences for landscape configuration.Methods: sing land-cover maps of the Paris region for 1982 and 2003, we made a holistic description of the landscape disentangling landscape composition from configuration. After controlling for spatial variations, we analyzed and compared the amplitudes of changes in landscape composition and configuration over time.Results: For comparable spatial variations, landscape configuration varied more than twice as much as composition over time. Temporal changes in composition and configuration were not always spatially matched.Significance: The fact that landscape composition and configuration do not vary equally in space and time calls into question the use of space-for-time substitution in landscape ecology studies. The instability of landscapes over time appears to be attributable to configurational changes in the main. This may go some way to explaining why the landscape variables that account for changes over time in biodiversity are not the same ones that account for the spatial distribution of biodiversity

Recent climatic and anthropogenic imprints on lacustrine systems in the Pyrenean Mountains inferred from minerogenic and organic clastic supply (Vicdessos valley, Pyrenees, France)

High-resolution seismic profiling has been combined with geochemical analyses of both watershed samples and five lacustrine cores retrieved from two natural lacustrine basins of glacial origin: Lake Majeur and Lake Sigriou (1630 m a.s.l. and 1995 m a.s.l., respectively, Eastern French Pyrenees). Identifying specific minerogenic and organic markers of autochthonous and allochthonous supply, data allow documenting past climatic and anthropogenic pressures. Over the past century, the lacustrine sediment of Lake Majeur has been essentially composed of algae, drastically contrasting with the natural sedimentary infill of the basin, mainly resulting from soil erosion from the mid–late Holocene. Since ad 1907, the Lake Majeur has been used for hydroelectricity production. Human-induced lake-level regulations, affecting up to 37% of the lacustrine surface, have increased by fourfold the accumulation rate of the lake and favoured water enrichment. Rubidium abundance within the lacustrine sediments of the two lakes reflects the mid–late Holocene palaeohydrology. After dam construction in ad 1907, greater quantities of rubidium found in Lake Majeur sedimentary infills indicate drier climatic periods, such as from ad 1975 to ad 1982, during which water reservoirs were particularly in demand. Inversely, before the dam was built, rubidium fluctuations were correlated with wetter conditions and hydrological events were recorded as sandy layers deposited by canyon reactivation, synchronous with European climatic deterioration phases. We notably document that the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly was interrupted by some humid periods dated c. ad 940, ad 1080, ad 1100 and ad 1250. We also date the onset of the ‘Little Ice Age’ c. ad 1360 and identify that this period was wetter after c. ad 1500

High Expression of Testes-Specific Protease 50 Is Associated with Poor Prognosis in Colorectal Carcinoma

Testes-specific protease 50 (TSP50) is normally expressed in testes and abnormally expressed in breast cancer, but whether TSP50 is expressed in colorectal carcinoma (CRC) and its clinical significance is unclear. We aimed to detect TSP50 expression in CRC, correlate it with clinicopathological factors, and assess its potential diagnostic and prognostic value. = 0.009).Our data demonstrate that TSP50 is a potential effective indicator of poor survival for CRC patients, especially for those with early-stage tumors