Trend inflation, firm-specific capital, and sticky prices

Inflation (Finance) ; Prices

Unemployment and vacancy fluctuations in the matching model: inspecting the mechanism

Unemployment ; Labor market

The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities

In this chapter we inspect economic mechanisms through which technological progress shapes the degree of inequality among workers in the labor market. A key focus is on the rise of U.S. wage inequality over the past 30 years. However, we also pay attention to how Europe did not experience changes in wage inequality but instead saw a sharp increase in unemployment and an increased labor share of income, variables that remained stable in the U.S. We hypothesize that these changes in labor market inequalities can be be accounted for by the wave of capitalembodied technological change, which we also document. We propose a variety of mechanisms based on how technology increases the returns to education, ability, experience, and “luck” in the labor market. We also discuss how the wage distribution may have been indirectly influenced by technical change through changes in certain aspects of the organization of work, such as the hierarchical structure of firms, the extent of unionization, and the degree of centralization of bargaining. To account for the U.S.-Europe differences, we use a theory based on institutional differences between the United States and Europe, along with a common acceleration of technical change. Finally, we briefly comment on the implications of labor market inequalities for welfare and for economic policy.Inequality, Institutions, Labor Market, Skills, Technological Change

A near-IR variability study of the Galactic black hole: a red noise source with no detected periodicity

We present the results of near-infrared (2 and 3 microns) monitoring of Sgr A*-IR with 1 min time sampling using the natural and laser guide star adaptive optics (LGS AO) system at the Keck II telescope. Sgr A*-IR was observed continuously for up to three hours on each of seven nights, between 2005 July and 2007 August. Sgr A*-IR is detected at all times and is continuously variable, with a median observed 2 micron flux density of 0.192 mJy, corresponding to 16.3 magnitude at K'. These observations allow us to investigate Nyquist sampled periods ranging from about 2 minutes to an hour. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the variability of Sgr A* in this data set is consistent with models based on correlated noise with power spectra having frequency dependent power law slopes between 2.0 to 3.0, consistent with those reported for AGN light curves. Of particular interest are periods of ~20 min, corresponding to a quasi-periodic signal claimed based upon previous near-infrared observations and interpreted as the orbit of a 'hot spot' at or near the last stable orbit of a spinning black hole. We find no significant periodicity at any time scale probed in these new observations for periodic signals. This study is sensitive to periodic signals with amplitudes greater than 20% of the maximum amplitude of the underlying red noise component for light curves with duration greater than ~2 hours at a 98% confidence limit.Comment: 37 pages, 2 tables, 17 figures, accepted by Ap

Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment

We propose a new measure of frictional wage dispersion: the mean-min wage ratio. For a large class of search models, we show that this measure is independent of the wage-offer distribution but depends on statistics of labor-market turnover and on preferences. Under plausible preference parameterizations, observed magnitudes for worker flows imply that in the basic search model, and in most of its extensions, frictional wage dispersion is very small. Notable exceptions are some of the most recent models of on-the-job search. Our new measure allows us to rationalize the diverse empirical findings in the large literature estimating structural search models. (JEL D81, D83, J31, J41, J64)

Lifetime rates and types of subsequent child protection system contact following a first report of neglect: An age-stratified analysis

An estimated 1 in 3 U.S. children will be the subject of a child protective services (CPS) investigation during their lifetime, typically for allegations of neglect. Whether and how an initial report of neglect is addressed may place children on divergent trajectories for safety and stability throughout childhood. The purpose of this study is to track subsequent CPS contact among children born in California in 2000 who were first investigated by CPS for neglect allegations alone (no co-occurring abuse) and not permanently separated from their families of origin (i.e., not removed or reunified if removed). We estimated the rates of subsequent CPS referrals, substantiated maltreatment, placement in foster care, and allegations of physical and sexual abuse by age 18. We assessed how rates of subsequent contact varied by initial CPS response and age at first investigation. Supplemental analyses disaggregated data by race and ethnicity. Results indicate that 64% of children initially investigated for neglect alone were re-referred to CPS by age 18 and 16% experienced a subsequent removal; however, these estimates varied greatly by age. Four out of five (79% to 83%) of children initially investigated as infants had one or more subsequent CPS referrals during childhood. Children were not only re-referred for allegations of neglect; more than half of children re-referred were reported for allegations of physical or sexual abuse, indicating that abuse risk was either missed during the initial CPS investigation or escalated afterward. The failure to address maltreatment risks when children first present to the system is a complex problem with no easy solution. Our findings document that a majority of children initially referred for neglect experience future CPS involvement, often for allegations of physical or sexual abuse

Evidence for X-ray synchrotron emission from simultaneous mid-IR to X-ray observations of a strong Sgr A* flare

This paper reports measurements of Sgr A* made with NACO in L' -band (3.80 um), Ks-band (2.12 um) and H-band (1.66 um) and with VISIR in N-band (11.88 um) at the ESO VLT, as well as with XMM-Newton at X-ray (2-10 keV) wavelengths. On 4 April, 2007, a very bright flare was observed from Sgr A* simultaneously at L'-band and X-ray wavelengths. No emission was detected using VISIR. The resulting SED has a blue slope (beta > 0 for nuL_nu ~ nu^beta, consistent with nuL_nu ~ nu^0.4) between 12 micron and 3.8 micron. For the first time our high quality data allow a detailed comparison of infrared and X-ray light curves with a resolution of a few minutes. The IR and X-ray flares are simultaneous to within 3 minutes. However the IR flare lasts significantly longer than the X-ray flare (both before and after the X-ray peak) and prominent substructures in the 3.8 micron light curve are clearly not seen in the X-ray data. From the shortest timescale variations in the L'-band lightcurve we find that the flaring region must be no more than 1.2 R_S in size. The high X-ray to infrared flux ratio, blue nuL_nu slope MIR to L' -band, and the soft nuL_nu spectral index of the X-ray flare together place strong constraints on possible flare emission mechanisms. We find that it is quantitatively difficult to explain this bright X-ray flare with inverse Compton processes. A synchrotron emission scenario from an electron distribution with a cooling break is a more viable scenario.Comment: ApJ, 49 pages, 9 figure

Circulating miR-181 is a prognostic biomarker for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentless neurodegenerative disease of the human motor neuron system, where variability in progression rate limits clinical trial efficacy. Therefore, better prognostication will facilitate therapeutic progress. In this study, we investigated the potential of plasma cell-free microRNAs (miRNAs) as ALS prognostication biomarkers in 252 patients with detailed clinical phenotyping. First, we identified, in a longitudinal cohort, miRNAs whose plasma levels remain stable over the course of disease. Next, we showed that high levels of miR-181, a miRNA enriched in neurons, predicts a greater than two-fold risk of death in independent discovery and replication cohorts (126 and 122 patients, respectively). miR-181 performance is similar to neurofilament light chain (NfL), and when combined together, miR-181 + NfL establish a novel RNA–protein biomarker pair with superior prognostication capacity. Therefore, plasma miR-181 alone and a novel miRNA–protein biomarker approach, based on miR-181 + NfL, boost precision of patient stratification. miR-181-based ALS biomarkers encourage additional validation and might enhance the power of clinical trials

Rates of Emotional Disturbance Among Children in Foster Care: Comparing Federal Child Welfare Data and Medicaid Records in Two States

The purpose of this study is to estimate the rate of emotional disturbance (ED) among children in foster care and assess the validity of the national foster care census data (AFCARS) measure of ED. This study used linked child protection and Medicaid records from 2014 and 2015, for the states of California and Wisconsin, as well as data from AFCARS, a federal population census of children in foster care which states are mandated to contribute to. ED is defined by AFCARS and includes an array of mental and behavioral health diagnoses. According to AFCARS, 13% of CA children in foster care and 15% of WI children in foster care had an ED, whereas Medicaid claims produce rates of 45% and 48%, respectively. Rates of ED among children in congregate care were underestimated by 43?46 percentage points, with substantial proportions having diagnoses of disruptive behavioral disorders. Despite the AFCARS ED measure being cited in congressional testimonies and its wide use in research, results from this study suggest that the AFCARS ED estimates are an unreliable metric for use in research, policy, or practice